Member Info for CaptainSwag

robone - i agree oil is going to e very risky and there are companies that are not going to make it. and lets be honest the voliatility in oil will make a lot of people money too. the lack of storage is a constant threat .

however one of the major obstacles has been overcome - the spat between russia and saudis. i wouldnt be surprised if there are more cuts in the future -
sooner or later things are going to have to move back towards normal - the government is not going to be able to afford to fund furloughing indefinitely. people are already getting restless - around me you would hardly think there was any issue the way all the stupids are standing next to you.

all hur have to do is hold out til demand picks up whether that is 6/9/12 months etc. in the mean time the data will touch wood prove the concept. sure we may be year later than expected but if the concept is proved it should all turn out good.

robone - at $30 hur is making a small profit - about $3 a barrel - and it is proving up the concept and acquiring data. All things considered a good result in the current climate...I suspect quite a lot of companies would swap places.

I think oil price will drop again and be very volatile for quite some time.

have to say - seeing that brent has gone up around 30% in the last week - very disappointed with the increase in HUR sp

well i thought that was pretty good. All the usual questions asked and well answered.

I am not too bothered about their ability to bring a PowerPoint to life.. I got involved cos of trices knowledge on fractured basement..

Yes the share holder value comments were clumsy but I have a certain sympathy as he clearly has taken stick over not showing he cares about shareholders. He is not a Natural lenigas snake oil seller thankfully.

I thought the presentation was comprehensive and answered certainly any questions I have. They can't do anything in regard of covid or oil price.. Just be careful withe cash.. Make alternative plans and keep collecting data.

mrspacetomato -in my opinion you have got in at a very good price - much better than some of us! i think there will be more pain in the market but long term you should do well.. hopefully one day we will get some corking news of CV being over and it will rocket. i can't begin to guess the poo..i got caught out yesterday as was a perfcet time for a quick trade. unfortunately by the time i noticed at 20%+ it was too risky...could have dropped that much today

red leader if you are really interested in prospects i would advise going through all the bumf....persona;ly halifax is the big one. if lancaster gets proved up for a ffd that will be next

my take on CV.

if you look at mortality statistics in the uk for last 3 months of 2019 there were about 1435 deaths per day. the deaths from flu during 2018/2019 season was 1692 which was particularly low. however in the last 5 seasons the average deaths per year was 17000 which equates to 47 per day.

the first death from cv in the uk was recorded was on 4/3/20 ...27 days later we are up to 1789 deaths with 381 deaths in the last 24 hours.

italy has 837 deaths in the last 24 hours having been in lockdown for a couple of weeks. we are 2 weeks behind and seemingly on a similar trajectory

this is more contagious than flu and has a higher mortality rate. Not having taken the precautions that Taiwan or South korea took - without a lockdown we dont know where the figures would have ended up. we are also at the very beginning of the outbreak with no idea how long it will last and whether there will be a number of waves etc. There is also evidence of people catching it a second time.

the 1918 flu was estimated to have infected about a third of the world's population with an estimated 50 million deaths

i suspect greta is learning to be careful what she wishes for. this is the part of the future she wants - less travel

whilst it sounds good when you can travel the world at the courtesy of those who indulge you - when she has to lie the life she wants the rest of us to maybe it is not so attractive. her generous sponsors might be a little more preoccupied these days

virtual signalling wokeness is a first world problem when there isn't the the problems of survival. when people have to start living like too many do in reality they will find it won't be so high up on their agenda

Andrew Neil has investigated and reports that The Germans are reporting anyone who died with underlying health conditions from CV as a CV death in line with uk.

eski - the GWA was disappointing. Personally I have written it off but I can understand those who still think it is a goer.

Lancaster has exceeded expectations and if the longetivity is proved up over the next 6 months and the macroeconomics improve then things should hopefully improve in terms of FFD. in which case it wont be a mediocre company. still a lot to play for in my opinion.

I do agree with you in that i dont think things will change - i would say for a few months. we will probably go even lower. the thing is you would not want to be out if the saudi/ russians back down or a vaccine for CV comes out. may take months but if/ when it does the SP is gonna rocket IMHO

I bet "old lucky" (HUR) is the only work place where someone gets CV and it ends up as an article!...FFS..starting to wonder if someone has put voodoo on it

It will be interesting to see how many of those who sold out are willing to log in every day to give us the bad news.

john- initially I felt the same - but we have had some good SP rise today - probably in part from oil price and from people wanting to be in for the CMD. so it was probably good to let the momentum go on. If we do drop tomorrow then at least it will only take some of today's rise off.

Johnpwh I suspect that is what will happen.

I don't think they can expect hur to proceed with underaking these works at the moment.

I doubted the CMD was going to tell us much different from the RNS last week. Still producing 20k and profitable at this level though less than anticipated. They have cash to see them through and the water is not an issue.

good news on the flexibility of OGA - maybe relations if previously strained will improve.

fingers crossed that something good happens on the oil price front - a waste to finally be producing and getting half the price.

awk - fair point.

I always try to look at a worse case scenario - so i have written it off and then anything else is a bonus. however you are right in that the fat lady hasnt started singing just yet on gwa

fred - i agree that it was probably not the best company to get involved with. it did disappoint me at the time.

however when all is said and done hur got to explore gwa quicker and a lot cheaper than if they had done it alone - so it was a good result. it would have cost them however they went about it.

that particular field didn't work out but thats oil exploration

rex - If there are any issues with the OGA - and I am not sure there are I just think they are adapting to the new climate of environmental friendly promotion - it would be foolish to start talking about it and make the situation worse.

Professional companies don't usually go into details on why employees left - so there is nothing sinister there. I think it was quite clear he was let go - so that means he had failed in his job. My suspicion is that it was either a) costs liable under spirit contract that could have been avoided b) no hedging of oil sp c) his manner rubbed someone up the wrong way or maybe a combination. I doubt we will ever be told but the fact they got rid of him means they are dealing with it.

the trouble is that we are in unchartered territories.

I have been predicting turmoil in shops and panic buying for a while - whilst friends of mine were talking about flu death figures and only affecting those who are old with underlying health conditions

i have also worried about the possibility of looting/riots etc. certainly young males with high levels of testosterone are going to suffer cabin fever after a few days.... if there are curfews can you imagine the police/army trying to disperse a gang who feel they are safe because they are young and healthy and feel they are being oppressed

personally i would always rather be prepared. paranoid? maybe. but even if you are it does not meant they are not out to get you.....

It's a nice thought. I am not sure the behavior in people in shops and shop owners cashing in shows a general change in that direction...i think the attitude of the younger generation towards social distance shows that the future of a caring society is also in question. The message I keep getting is that it only affects the old so I am not worried.

good post longwait - i am in the same boat as you. i almost sold half my holding at 46p ( about £60k) the day before the rns dropped....unfortunately .the fact we were flaring i took as a good sign..

in hindsight there had been plenty of opportunities since 36p/30p/25p/20p/15p - unfortunately i topped up thinking each time the opportunity was cheap - the company are doing what they said they would and making cash....even CV i could see a way back in a few months.
the oil price war has been the killer in my view. i guessed cuts in production if anything

i still think the price will get settled - i suspect the usa get involved could be the route.....it just remains to be seen how much damage has been done.

i still think there will be money to made in the stockmarket in the coming months but as a trader - if you can time it right.

interesting times