Member Info for CaptainSwag

awk....i certainly feel there will be trading opportunities with hur...and i might be in for some too.....

bartle - you are right - easter! doh!

as for france i was really thinking more how paris will react and therefore london. however i take your points. i guess i was thinking more about crime than the general population's spirit. good points

longwait- if the longetivity is confirmed i think we will be ok....sure there will be delays but as you say some of us have been here a long time....if it takes an extra year so be it.

unfortunately i dont take any comfort from chinese figures - but i hope you are right and i am wrong

soup - they said 6-12 months. so the cmd could possibly give confirmation of longetivity - fingers and everything else crossed....still would need to survive CV/OIL price but would be some light at the end of the tunnel.

excellent article aquae

lets be honest boris wont win whatever he says or does.

i don't like it but there is some merit to this approach. whether it is successful or not time will tell. i think they have looked at uk society today and that has factored a lot in the decision. firstly it is going to be very difficult to cope with schools closed - if they can hang on to half term then there is a natural break for two weeks anyway. i also think they are trying to time peak devastation for the summer so we can hopefully get over it before autumn - when it would be game over.

when they talk of "boredom" read civil unrest. the last thing they need to deal with is looting and rioting. someone in london got mugged coming out of a shop having just bought toilet roll. this is the society we now live in. china could impose draconian measures. italians have more of a sense of civic responsibility in my opinion. france will be interesting to watch - and would probably give more of an insight how we would react.

i suspect whichever path a society takes the majority will get it. can you delay until a vaccine? how effective would a vaccine be - it is going to mutate. we dont have the medical resources to deal with it - we cant build a hospital in 4 days like china.

interesting to see how china reacts when normal service is resumed - will there be a second wave. the taiwan model has been the most successful so far - but is it sustainable long term

Ash - I am not sure that's a comfort for Europe as we didn't lock down like they did. We can't. If you look at Taiwan that was the model that seems to have work the best so far.

yuri

i was looking at how italy jumped from 889 to 1128 the next day
and we have just risen from 798 to 1101...which would support this

i guess i was hoping for a bit of magic and the trend would break.

All guesses at the moment but i think we could get an uplift if the news this week (results) and next week (CMD)...although not as much i suspect if the oil price hadnt been slaughtered. i think a positive message that HUR can hunker down and survive the months it is going to take to sort this mess out will improve sentiment.

as for oil price..who knows where this is going. i wonder if oil consumption goes down if there will be the need to produce so much - will it all be bought? in which case they will have to raise the price to generate their income. i suspect other countries will try to mediate ...failing that there is always the possibility of more rocket attacks on saudi fields!

good points too goose. the population density does worry me.

genghis - I have been wondering if/how CV will affect oil production in terms of personnel and any imposed self isolation. also in terms of transportation between countries.

analyst - the italians had 889 cases on 28/2/20 and we have currently 798. so i can see where the idea we are two weeks behind comes from.
however what we don't know is how prevalent testing was in italy at that time. my suspicion is not much testing is happening here - whether that be cost/kits or actually an actual desire to keep case numbers down.

i think the next 3 weeks will be the critical time for us - and probably indicate our path. it will also coincide with the easter holidays - which i get the feeling the govt have been holding out for as the schools will be closed naturally anyway

the italy v uk question is interesting. I came back from there mid feb and said i at the time to friends that I thought they would get hit hard due to number of the number of chinese travellers/tourists - it is a numbers game after all - and the fact that everyone around me on public transport had a cold / cough etc. in my experience italians seem to suffer colds easier when the weather is cold or transitioning - possibly they are more used to hot weather - and advantage we may have.

i think factors that have caused the severity are age and greeting by kissing etc. i have seen some theories on smoking numbers also being an issue I think they also being the first european country to really suffer were probably dismissive of the actual severity of the virus. I have many italian friends and heard of a group of italians that travelled to south america knowing that some had been exposed to the virus in a very contagious activity. It is interesting to see the change in people around me in only a week. All those who criticised me for being doom and gloom are now starting to change their opinion. i do love the way the italians have been socialising and singing from their isolation and I really do hope they get through it as soon as possible - my thoughts are with them

How the uk going to react? i think the fact that people are washing hands is going to help though it is so difficult not to then touch something you have previously touched with dirty hands. I am concentrating on trying not to touch my face as i wasn't aware how much I did! we have had time to learn from italy. i think people are starting to realise that it has the potential to hit us very hard. i am not convinced on the uk govt strategy of delaying certain things like closing schools etc.but time will tell. my worry for the uk is that i dont think we are as community minded as the italians - certainly not in big cities and i think we will have a bigger problem with crime etc

stay safe everyone

didn't the last one have a live podcast or something cancelled?..though it was available afterwards as a video.
My bet would be that there will be a live video link for invitees only and hopefully a broadcast of some sort afterwards.

I suspect that they are going to have to talk about the share price as it is a capital market day. They are going to have to explain why HUR is investable. This will hopefully address the longetivity of the well and some of the negative rumours that have circulated over the last few months. They will also have to address how they plan to cope with the current situation regarding CV and oil price.

fingers crossed - we could really do with some good news

genghis - no need to be aggressive so often. It is only a BB for discussing opinions and ideas - and keyboard warriors dont impress anyone.

few would advocate hedging - do you have anything to back this up?

if we take each offload to have been on average 400,000 bod at say $50 that is $20m per offload. I think that is a sum worth hedging. the estimated income is $200m for the year the financial part of the company should have been looking at all risks. It was very clear when China commenced lockdown that CV was going to have a major affect worldwide.

good post join the dots. The playing field these days is more like a steep slope down rather than level. This is going to affect how PIs invest in the future sooner or later. to be honest i no longer want to invest in the market as it has become more like a casino. I can accept risk in a company's strategy eg that HUR might or might not pull off the fractured basement. not some of the mechanics of the market. the fact that you cannot even identify if a trade is a buy or sell is just the beginning of my complaints

wonder if that was another bullet in the gun at stobie's head? had he hedged? they should have been producing 20k for a month when he got the sack..even if not they had been producing 11k minimum for some time now.

yeah noticed after the big drop in oil price - asda / morrisons have taken 2p off

i want to hear confirmation of the longetivity of the well - get this and there is a good chance everything else will sort out in time.

no point selling any oil company unless you need the cash. the current oil production agreements last until the end of the month. so there is a month for russia and saudi to play chicken with each other. hopefully the price isnt going much lower during this time. however the next point is if they decide to ramp up production when the agreement ends. they are sure going to lose some friends if they do.

crazy times...and as usual hur right in the middle. we are still profitable at these prices and have cash. just a question of keep producing to prove up well and collect data.

i think some oil companies will go bust and exploration will be put on hold - so in the long term it might be beneficial to hur ...but it is going to be a painful month.

don't know whether to laugh or cry!