Member Info for CaptainSwag

if china has got a handle on it - it was from pretty draconian measures which we can't achieve in europe in my opinion. They are also used to wearing masks and can build new hospitals in a matter of days.

We have taken a different tactic with the promotion of regular washing of hands - time will tell if this will be as effective or not. If italy has shown anything it is that different countries will potentially react in different ways .

in my opinion this is going to get a lot worse before it gets any better.

As far as how I see HUR going - we need a good CMD / CV to be past the worst in 3-6 months / oil price to sort out. If the CMD is good I believe the rest will eventually sort out but it is going to be a long hard slog back to a decent SP.

i doubt china is stockpiling masks for supply to the rest of the world. I suspect they they might be worried of being contaminated by people returning back to china from countries now infected. A second wave.

from memory isnt the cost per barrel around $20?

so yes we would survive but wouldnt produce the income expected.

awk - trice reading the boards to learn about his field - that made me chuckle and there isnt usually much on here that does!

londoner

We don't have any evidence of a delay to 20k - Anyway now it is confirmed that is another issue that has been dealt with.

i suspect even if hur were completely 100% satisfied over the perched water issue - there would be those who would still try to drag it up. presumably they could draw more oil from the dryer well to reduce the overall water cut to get 30k - if it became an issue.

mc - i agree that HUR need to show desire and ability to go it alone if no attractive offers come in for the time being. however the EPS has been based on 6 years so they do have a bit of time to play with. i would like to see the EPS extended as long as it does not lead to financial commitments that would be payable even if they do secure a farm in for a FFD.

the more i think about it - i am favouring one of my earlier theories on stobie was pushed because he messed up on liabilities if spirit didnt proceed . ok he wasnt to know they were going to be sold but obviously hur were left with a bill they didnt expect. added to the fact that he was unpopular due to other decisions - he signed his own warrant.

POO is going to be key. i think about 7% of world consumption is due to aviation - so that demand will soften. though as the virus spreads i suspect there wont be much point continuing to restrict air travel. the new normal is about to change until a vaccine is available in my opinion. however road travel will probably increase so i expect demand will probably level up.

just depends on how Russia want to continue. they may want to try to drive shale out of business but they are losing money too. Saudi etc will have to decide on the metric of more sales lower price v less sales higher price .

in any case - if one thing has been highlighted again, it is the need for uk to be oil self sufficient. closer to home is also greener. if hur can prove the longetivity of the field and hang on in there - all the time generating cash fingers crossed it will all come good in the long run.

all the above is just my normal lazy saturday ramblings. my opinion only.

mcb55 - i got 30,000 from the CPR (if i have read it correctly) and i didn't see any time limit in the document so believed it was for the 6 year period - if you have any other source of info could you direct me to it please? are there any indications what a WOSP tie in would cost? I am a bit of a climate sceptic but still would rather see it exported rather than flared

interesting point on the extension to 10 years. it would increase reserves - which would be good news - but I would prefer to see some traction on an FFD plan. however is there enough data collected yet and/or has corona virus/oil price temporarily put any spanner in the works?

i believe they can flare up to 30,000 stb/d on the EPS.

I believe hur expect That a positive result from 6-12 months of data collection would set wheels in motion for a farm in and an FFD. There is an option for up to 10 years on the EPS but that is insurance.

agree with genghis...money needs to be used for drilling. long term thinking rather than short term. though if they were ever to do it now would be the time

personally I would prefer a program of work on halifax

daltry - would not be surprised at this. crazy until they have enough alternative options. good news for hur. especially if they cant achieve the green effect they want

diego - i am hoping that hur will confirm the longetivity of the wells being drilled. they always said they needed 6 months data minimum. the cmd would be the earliest opportunity to do this. the cmd is also an opportunity to put the water issue to rest (touch wood) , announce drill programs etc. I would also like to see them extend the EPS in the absence of a farm in.

Whilst you may be right on the SP movement - there is the potential for some elimination of the risks that have dogged this share. i do agree that it is probably a long way back - thats shares for you - and yes there are gonna be a lot of profit takers at various interval. however it has to start somewhere. the cmd could restore sentiment back in the share which has been eroded over the last three months . personally i suspect any rise will happen as unfathomed as the sharp drop.

awk - yes. Obviously FFD is the idea and favoured choice but will depend probably on a farm out.

Extending the AM from 6- 10 years will not only increase revenue but should raise the resource figures as follows :

"In the event of Hurricane extending the EPS duration from six to ten years, additional P90, P50, P10 volumes of 16.4, 24.8
and 39.4 MMstb respectively would be produced in these additional four years which would then qualify as Reserves."

I agree with longwait. Hur went down to 10p before and then all the way above at 60p. At that time we were not a producer.

The thing is if the cmd they clear all issues that have been raised. Confirm drilling plans. And have news on ffd or extension of am and increase in reserves. Then what do you think will happen to the sp?

My only worry is that the squids mum is heading towards am for revenge. She thinks her baby was given coronavirus by stobie and he is still on board.

Alexios - they have stated many times that any changes/issues would be notified. This would be significant so I can't see it personally. The load has was lighter than normal - and they could have waited longer. So my preferred theories are that there was a transfer issue or else they are keeping oil on AM. Maybe the increased weight makes it more stable in rough seas.

Slip - good post. After a lot of rambling yesterday my preferred theory is that the spirit issues have left hur with a bill which should have been risk assessed properly. I also suspect that he wasn't the best person to deal with certain parties.

they may just be shorting the market - things could get tougher with cornoavirus etc. hopefully we are at the bottom and they will not gain anything from it.

agree well well.....maybe thats it they want someone more capable of getting a farm out etc

trice has always made it clear the market will be updated - so i discount that. financial irregularities i find hard to believe.

my musings on stobie is that he has possibly got on the wrong side of someone - and the low SP maybe has been used as ammunition to get rid of him.

could be institutional investors ? or maybe if there has been a change in relationship with OGA as some have suggested - could it have been his doing?

the other thing that I have wondered is if the spirit deal had been badly contracted and hadn't really allowed for the outcome that occurred. Have hur been left with expenses that a better contract would have avoided?

just having a rambly morning.....probably none of it makes sense

I wonder if they are keeping more oil on than usual to help stabilise the fpso? if more bad weather is expected?

light load is a puzzler - if it was issues with production then they would have informed us. Also why pay for a light offtake?

so.....issues with transfer? price of oil lower than they wanted to sell at?