Member Info for CaptainSwag

a reliable source has told me the squid has died from coronavirus and this will be in an RNS on monday - market makers have already adjusted opening price.

longwait - jeez please dont burst my bubble!

i think 14p ish is the bottom - fingers crossed no more bad news. we hit a new low on a bad bad day but bounced off

i think after the stobie departure and the huge losses on the market this week that is a good result this week - i certainly would have taken it beforehand.

my only worry is that the giant squid which i have been informed by reliable sources to have the coronavirus does not infect the crew - however I am also informed that everytime it surfaces they are spraying it with perched water -

I think today is just confirmation that we are at the bottom. In a way its nice that our fall preceded the market - as we had already gone through the pain.

just have to hope that the coroavirus situation improves before cmd- so any good news gets the response it deserves.

brilliant video!

ex - i am sure there are. the ones i noticed were mostly travellers. for example i had been waiting for the bus into the centre when i got a text about the much easier and cheaper tram. As i Left about 30 chinese arrivals passed me - all with surgical masks. Same as when I left a week later. since flights had been stopped from china i was surprised. I had a flat very close to main train station and saw a lot chinese people with suitcases. a train journey to pisa was also heavily populated with chinese people.

Could be spread by anyone - but it is a numbers game too. Actually thinking about it - it was the week before the chinese new year. guess italy was a popular choice this year. good taste!

personally I think the coronavirus will be a significant issue. it seems to have about a 10% mortality rate - and as others have mentioned it will be old and weak who are most at risk.

i came back from italy 2 weeks ago - and i am not surprised that it has caught them bad. I was in florence and there were lots and I mean lots of chinese people. I did wonder if they were all tourists or if people hadn't got out quick while they could..They were already measuring temperature of arrivals but presumably this wouldn't show up in early stages? in addition every journey i took had all the italians around me suffering from cold/ flu etc.. seems they don't take cold weather well.

the reality is it will hit the market - and people will make money from a dip - but my prediction is normal service will be resumed. we still have to eat work heat our homes etc. life goes on and the market goes on.

WWN - It is not just longwait's desire to see HUR succeed. The company have a vested interest too!

The haven't come so far - to say ok there's a bit of perched water and a giant squid which probably has coronavirus - lets call it a day.

They had already looked at all possible permutations as part of their risk assessment. Plans will have to be changed for sure - but that is any business.

wwn

"CS. You know my view of reservoir risk and how IMHO it is simply based on HURs model as published in the CPR. Most people on here profess to believe almost religiously everything that HUR says - but not in this case where you prefer unspecified and unexplainable market forces!!!"

the issue is that the market's view of the SP is complicated . I have stated numerous times that HUR suffered the perfect storm - poor drill results (I don't share LW's view) , brexit and election , xmas holidays , possible long wait with no news until CMD, Corona virus, price of oil etc etc. panic compounded by drop in SP was exasperated by continued artlcles / posts only looking at the negative permutations..which sets more panic etc etc. I believe the SP is more a result of sentiment brought about by market forces rather than the current position - which on the face of it is the potential loss of an exploration field and maybe the partner in that field. since it had little value given to it the drop has to be questioned.

I don't know enough about shorting and arbitrage and spoofing and layering - but it seems that might have played into some people's hands.

I think everyone is in agreement that 2P reserves need to be increased - from memory it is over 450 mboe of 2c - hopefully the data accumulated over the last 9 months will do that.

Halifax is still there in the background with huge potential.

wwn - I agree with longwait on market forces v reservoir risk - as the issue of resrvoir risk was always there. Confirmation of longetivity is what ultimately we have been waiting on since first oil. the length of production and volume should if anything have given confidence and supported share price not decimated it.

wwn - i totally agree with you

"I personally would like to see HUR concentrate on Lancaster. If they can do the minimum to hold onto GWA really cheaply then fine, but if not we should park it quickly. More producers on Lancaster (shallow ones, not deeper on the structure!), increased production, increased reserves, de-bottlenecking the FPSO and WOSP. Everything else is a distraction."

GWA was a poor result - though i am sure lots of data.
Lancaster is working well and so should therefore be maximised to either produce cash or sell off/farm out. personally i would then like to see plans for halifax.

drillordrop - offload is important because that is what is providing the cash and shows the state of the well. Now if there had been an issue with the offloads i would be worried. the fact that it has produced better than expected and there has been no issue with the ramp up to 20k hopefully shows good things for the CMD.

mcb - good post. i saw the tieback as a consequence of spirit's status at the moment. they are trying to be sold and it possibly is a complication that they felt was not the right time. They may or not be interested in the future - however i have factored the worst case scenario.

www - lets face the note did little more than copy the RNS. I agree that being paid for by the company means it should be taken as such.

the only possible contentious issue is the 35p valuation of EPS and 5p for GWA. I have to say I wouldn't disagree with those valuations. funnily enough on the december RNS of GWA result to SP dropped to 36p ish......so it looked like the market agreed....it was only after the relentless tag teaming of negative views on water cut that it has dropped to 30p/20p/15p

hopefully CMD will raise it back towards 35p - though i am sure the climb up will be slower than the descent down.

which way

I don't think you can judge the whole of Rona Ridge by Warwick deep. just as it would be wrong to assume it was all like lancaster. we have had very different results from the wells drilled. That is exploration. hopefully the more they learn the more and understand the better future drill results.

Spirit's involvement in my mind didn't work out. the campaign was not successful with the hoped for results. I had written GWA off in december and ultimately Spirit continued involvement. hur did well from an operational view as the exploration cost them a lot less than if they had done it alone. I dont remember there being a huge rise in SP when spirit deal was announced. i didn't value GWA that much in the SP - it was exploration after all. however the campaign has hit HUR sentiment hard - along with other issues.

Water was expected - look the presentations. The company have repeated that they continue to believe it is perched with the data they have acquired. the whole point of the 6-12 months data evaluation is to see the longetivity of the field. We have been producing for 8 months now - although i think the continuous production is counted from September so that means only 5 months. If you go by the RNS then results have been better than expected. Anyone who wants to read between the lines and come up with a different opinion than the official RNS line is entitled to do so - but without all the facts to back it up - it at this stage an assumption.

I agree the jury is probably still out on a farm out or sale - though lets be honest we dont know what is going on.

yes there is a lot of noise - and people posting to support their position - very much like i am doing here!

tav - for what it is worth my impression were that hur always wanted to sell off stuff to fund more exploration. I see DrT as much more interested in finding potential prospects rather than the draining them. i have read/seen interviews backing this up a long time ago. Hur was unlucky to suffer the oil slump just as they opened their data room a couple of years ago.

i saw the eps as their work around to the caution of the industry at the time..prove it up and sell on.

to be honest i read his stuff...like oil man jim etc.....i do want to hear contrarian views that are supported with an argument

Personally i think he has made a lot of assumptions - seems to be a lemon flavour. if they were true or to come true then maybe he has case . however they are just assumptions and opinion. there is one the i completely disagree with which I won't mention.

I am not sure of his background or expertise. some seem to say he knows stuff and other seem to say he has no industry experience.

i was finding it strange how much coverage he was focusing on hur - and now i know why. I wonder how much of his negativity has been influenced by the scattergraph bloke?

well i have just looked at lemon fool and pijoe1212 is the same twitter handle that Pete Brailey has.

so now we now know why he is so focussed on HUR - and doing a once a month slaughter on phrophetsof shares. Funny as previously I had said there seems to be a sort of tag team on kicking HUR

joe - i would agree with you that the assets have been trimmed. however there is still plenty enough and they are streamlining the best bits. halifax has always been the big one - and thats sitting there nicely in the background

however you are wrong - GLA is more than living up to its anticipated success as the company keeps stating. the water is still considered perched and has not affected flow rates (touch wood)

the thing is that if the CMD works out well it would be stupid to sell. At this price the amount of oil produced is covering its market cap. so it looks decent bet at worst.

haha - thanks for the link......food for thought indeed!