Member Info for CaptainSwag

Totally agree awk.

It is amazing how much people are trying to read into the rns. And adding 2+2=5.

It is a bit like an estate agent saying the property has white walls. One person says I don't trust estate agents so it must mean black. Another says but their probably double bluffing expecting you to think black but really it is white. Another says white is not a color it is a shade. Another says white contains all the wavelengths so actually it is red.. And green... And blue...

It is a white wall.

They are producing lots of oil... And it is oil. They are selling it.. The results exceed their expectations and we are on track for 20k bod this quarter.

Totally agree beer bull.

maybe i need to make it simpler

contents of tank after last upload (x)
contents added (y)
time (t)
contents of tank at arrival of transporter (x+y)

contents of tanks after offload (z)
off load (x+y) - z

average production = y/t

lets assume they are not filling the tank up at the same time as they are offloading!...lol

so probably best just to accept the figures given by HUR in their RNS - unless you have a genuine reason to think they would lie.

therefore you cannot work out how much oil was added to the tank(s) in what time frame.

therefore you cannot work out how much on average was added per day.

i think i explained that from a mathematical perspective in my first reply to you. you dont know the volume of contetns in the tank(s) before offload (if any). you don't know the volume of contents that were left afterwards (if any). you dont know how many days or part days the newly added contents (since previous offload) came from.

and?

does it contradict my simplification? they gave a prediction and then the result which as they keep repeating was better than expected

because otherwise i am not sure of the point you are trying to make

sorry the 6 month average was 13300 from your figures - even better

really? don't think there is anything sinister in giving an average estimate for production and an average afterwards. it is a guidance figure. They are still testing so it going to fluctuate probably a lot more so than when they settle down to steady production.

by your own reference

they were going to have 3 months at 9000 (45%) and 3 months at 13000 (65%) - which gives an average of 11000

they say they then actually produced an average 12500 - which exceeded expectations. so what is the problem?

of course we now know that is mainly all water but hey they got oil prices - so i am happy..lol

I don't see how you can correlate oil lifted with bod produced unless you know exactly the amount of oil in the tank before and after - do they completely empty it ? also the days between oil lifts might not correspond exactly with the days of production. say they come on day 30 - does that mean it has 30 days or 30.5 days etc.

the reality is the only figure that matters is barrels sold and income from it.

I suspect as always HUR have gone on a conservative prediction of production - and this seems to have generally been exceeded. of course we know they can make up any deficit with perched water (*wink*)

genghis - i was just going to post the same that the oil is from the dry well - so very doubtful there is any water to hide.

but hey - dont ruin a good story.

i think we should give credit to hur being able to sell 350,000 barrels of water at oil prices. when they run out of perched water maybe they should start with plain seawater! I think our reserves might just go up.

ex - agreed.

besides hur have been upfront about everything so far ... including the percentage of water cut. just lemon nonsense

i agree with AWK - you either trust the management or not. choose to be in or out. You can criticise HUR on a lot of things but being dishonest is not one of them

To be honest I have given up arguing over the water. As long as we are producing enough oil that is all that matters. Let them have their fun. As soon as we get an update that we are at 20k bod it will soon end all this rubbish.

i havent read lemo fool but the idea that the germans would "hide" the water is laughable to anyone who knows anything about the german mentality.

just hope having successfully depressed the price they are loading up on shares - would be a shame if they missed out when we do rerate!

think this was the best result possible for ECO.

Proof of good quality oil in Cretaceous play in the Orinduik licences. my guess is that they will now focus on that as Carapa is disappointing

TLW - will need to focus on Guyana as they have too many African issues. So brings eco right into play. happy days

To be honest I am only interested in the next 2/3 years as I predict that I will be out of HUR by then. I see this as the timeframe to make the best gains - if/when the concept gets proved up beyond doubt and they sell off assets or monetise in another way.

wellwell - gas central heating was not going to be allowed from 2025 in new builds - though they will still allow gas hobs. boris did say he was going to change that for this year.

however that still leaves all existing properties which are running on gas and will continue to do so for quite some time.

testpack - interesting post

I would say oil was a more addictive drug than tobacco...lol

Public opinion had turned on smokers during that period but people still did it because they wanted to / habit / addiction. This is an added argument for the case of oil too.

I agree if someone came up with a dirt cheap EV car people would buy it. However the issue is that there isn't and whether there will be in the forseeable future is another thing. also once EV cars become more poular what infrastructure wil there be for charging? It was only a yesterday afternoon walking in hampstead that i was surprised to see someone charging their car outside their house. I wonder how long they had waited for that space to become available?

How much oil and gas will be needed to produce electricity to run electric cars?

buyinmay - i agree oil is morally out of favour in some quarters. However all of my liberal elite mates who go on endlessly about climate change etc still enjoy their 4x4s and/or flights to the middle east / South America etc.

it seems ethics is for others to be preached on but nobody wants to give up their own 21st century luxury lifestyles. you only have to look at our "green" royalty who are not going to give up the private jet trips. This is not going to change.

Oil is going to be needed for a very long time reading the excellent link from Bloobird shows that oil and gas is still expected to provide 2/3rds of energy in 2035 and 50% in 2050. They will want as much as possible produced at home. Energy security as well as "greener" oil and gas will be the target.

As long as there is money to be made on oil shares you will have investors.
i see no reason that HUR could not get to £2/3/4 - providing the oil is still flowing.
P/E ratios for oil companies are normally x25. We are currently under 3. At some point the company will rerate and find its value as a producer.

cadell- pretty much as i see it. Though i see trice being too stubborn to give in easy. however nothing to stop a hostile bid at this price,

I think hur were unlucky ....as from memory they opened the data room the first time as oil price was starting to crash....this put the power into the buyers hand....and it was obvious trice didnt like that

i think hur did the right thing about going about things on their own.interest will come with proof but it will now cost any buyer a lot more.

my feeling is that trice will monetise lancaster to start on the big one (halifax). then that will get monetised to do more exploration. trice is more a pioneer than oil producer guy.

looking at the future plans for oil and gas in uk....where the emphasis will be on increasing greener fuel that is produced at home cutting down on the transportation carbon footprint ...hur will only become stronger and stronger if the oil keeps being produced as it is now.

All looking good at the moment.

nervous? With all respect that is what some people are trying to promote - I leave it to you to guess why.

it is always good to look at all sides and be aware of issues especially in oil exploration

The thing is HUR have always been quick to dispel any "rampy rumours" and always relayed any potential bad news . They have always been on the conservative side,

If they say things are going better than expected then I think you have to take them at their word.

In the last RNS they mentioned rona ridge full field.....do you think that shows any serious issues?