Member Info for CaptainSwag

i am not getting that gut feeling something isn't right.

my gut feeling is that something is going very well. however some people will make a lot of money out of the last week - and some will have lost a lot. and some will have a lot more gray hairs.

dspp

2) i don't have a problem with your data. My only issue is that the water figure you have used and gone on about repeatedly was released by hur already and they said it was better than they expected. They have also gone to great lengths to explain that it is not affecting production. which is backed up with the offloads we have had. According to hur there is no problem so why are you going on about it?

4) your hypotheses are just that
5) you are long...have you bought any in the drop?..no don't answer that as we have no way of knowing.

9) disagree. it has been a perfect storm. people sell up at xmas for a variety of reasons. we have a general election which is also causing fear. Market was already spooked with ECO and I3E. i suspect as usual on AIM people sold on "news" especially sold on bad drill result. There were a couple of notifiable shorts opened immediately prior to RNS. negative rumours also spooked some - some have admitted on here. water % being one
so i think a lot of PIs have sold = price drop

10) there are several possibilities why HUR are releasing news in december

a) good news from testing - it has been 6 months which was a timeframe they already talked about
b) they want to improve communication
c) they were worried that bad drill result will affect price so wanted some good news in there as well.

etc

i think the RNS would give a bigger boost in january when people are ready to get back into the market. however it is sorely needed now to put all these rumours to bed....of course they probably won't mention the possibility of the giant squid! so that will still give something for people to play with.

i doubt this side of xmas we will get 50% rise unless it is the big one confirming the field is a goer for many years

buy in may - i suspect that you are not the only one who panicked and sold. But that is how the market works. prices get driven down so people sell at a loss and that money gets redistributed by those who then buy at the low price and sell when it goes back up.

the traders will do very well on this share at the expense of those panickers and grey hairs for LTH.

For what it is worth I think you did the right thing buying back in. I suspect 30p is the bottom and we will bounce around until the update.

EV - so what your saying is the factors mentioned had no bearing on the SP? really? just down to that RNS?

There is no evidence of increased water cut - just someones scattergraph of figures released by hur (- max 8%) which was better than expected. They havent released an RNS denying my giant squid - but that doesnt mean its true.

i suspect that the notification of december RNS was HUR's attempt at better communication. and giving a news timeline. i doubt even they expected it to be used negatively

bocase - i agree with most of what you post

it has been a perfect storm.....i actually think a lot of the damage was done before tlw.. i recently lost in eco and a large paper profit in i3e. i agree oil is out of fashion - and if anyone lost in those i can see why a quick bail out would seem a good idea. the thing here though is that production has not been affected - results are better than expected at lancaster. so it should recover easier.

friday hopefully will put another risk out of the way - i think the market fears corbyn.

the fact that a couple of shorts opened just before RNS would suggest a leak...crystal amber was another kick in the teeth.

I dont think the RNS was meek ...it was just hur's understated way. the spot was not commercial however i saw the bit about dec update as a positive. however this has been commented on in a negative way - why? the promotion of scattergraphs of info that was already released by hur and said to be better than expected again you might have to question why?..

trice's seemingly lack of concern for the SP or shareholders has always worried/annoyed me - but he is what he is. arrogant twonk. i was really annoyed when he put the stop on the rumour rise that we LTH sorely needed. especially as he never does it when it is the other way. however it does add to the evidence that if he says results of lancaster are better than expected you can count on it. i also suspect if he has good news he will be happy to wait to properly release in it an RNS when the time is ready.

fingers crossed for great rns next week - i think it would have less impact if released this week pre election. then hopefully it will be a nice steady rise in anticipation of CMD.

on the other hand i might be completely wrong and the crew are staring out of the port holes in gusty storms at the giant squid!

ltcap - that was how i read it too. I suspect we could see the all clear on lancaster. Unfortunately the SP has been decimated so much that We need to rise 50% to be where we were before all this shenanigans. I am in for the long term so won't matter but not nice portfolio view

genghis

as i keep saying. couple of shorts opened just before results released (did they get nod?) one of which is now closed . nice profit i am sure!
people were only going to sell on news esprecially with xmas / election coming. good news and we would have gone up 5% or so...unfortunately bad drill result and we got butchered. this sparked some panic. more sells.

the perpetuation of negative "issues" has resulted in more decline - but there does not seem to be any substance to it that i can see.

AIM has just been AIM - some people have lost money by selling out...no doubt others will make money by buying in as it recovers.

tory election win...and Confirmation that all is on progress RNS and it will go back up. the trouble is that it takes seconds to drop and a lot longer to recover.

still waiting for sighting of giant squid or maybe even nessie !

Lancaster EPS

o 2.5 million barrels of oil sold across six cargoes to date

o Production in line with guidance for Q4 2019 of ~11,000 bopd
Further progress is also being made in our understanding of the Lancaster reservoir. Uninterrupted vessel uptime combined with good well productivity have allowed us to carry out additional data gathering whilst remaining in line with guidance for Q4 2019. We will provide a further update later in December.

That is what they just released ...

I am not sure how anyone can read bad news is coming from that?
yes someone has produced some scattergraphs on water cut but that has already been dismissed by the company. i wonder if we will get scattergraphs of the cargoes sold?...lol

shutts - the RNS doesnt have to be worldbeating. All they have to do is confirm that everything is Ok and that we are producing 11k bod - which is to be honest the message that has already been sent out - it will end this speculation which is driving negative sentiment.

If it is worlbeating - which is my hope - that the long term production has been confirmed - then that will really drive the SP. and sadly you will have lost out because of negative speculation.

shutts - sorry to ear about your loss. remember was only a loss once you sold. i understand it is not nice facing a large paper loss though. however remember money is made by some when others lose it

I am not sure how many of the potential problems being highlighted are really an issue. Yes it would seem Warwick is non commercial however lincoln crystal is and can be tied back to the AM....producing more oil.

As for the water cut. The scattergraphs produced are only using figures that have been released. The maximun was 8% which came from HUR and they have already stated that this was better than expected and not influencing production. this has been backed up by the sells. Anyone perpetuating this as a problem is doing so on their own supposition for whatever reason

Trice has never been one to embellish - so if he says things are going better than expected you can believe it in my opinion.

i think oil is a liitle out of favour -thanks greta!.. certainly companies are looking for more ethical/ green investments.....

another driver possibly. i have questioned myself as to whether it is the best time to be heavily involved.

obviously AIM takes any rational out of any equation as well

just think it was the perfect storm. shorts were opened up just before rns was released suggesting to me a nod was given. there was always going to be sell on news. timing of xmas and election means people would prefer to hold cash - understandable. price got butchered which has caused a panic...previous week with Ii3e prob didnt help.

the failure on the drill is being used to question the model when the fact we are producing oil .

the water cut debate is whether intentionally or not is causing more doubt - however it has been already addressed in oct presentation.

i have even seen questionmarks on why they are releasing an update in december??.lol
well it has been 6 months so that is reasonable time frame. personally i am hoping they have enough data - remember they need 6 - 12 months - to confirm everything is tickety boo long term.

i havent seen anything to alarm me. yes the drill result was disappointing but it is not the cause of this massive drop.

We have gone to great lengths to explain why we do not expect to see coned aquifer water during the lifetime
of the EPS, under our base case. This is our continuing expectation. The perched, or stranded, water we have
experienced is consistent with our reservoir model and since our capital markets day presentation this
interpretation has been reinforced by the Company’s technical work. Notwithstanding the increase in
aggregate perched water production to a sustained rate of approximately 7.5%, water cut remains within
expected ranges and is not impacting oil production levels or the cost of production.

dspp

if you look at the prrsentation 7/10/19 it says eps results at or above expectations.

best case water saturation 5-10% from CPR
well 6 = nil
well 7z = 8%
there is a big tick at the side

All your data is just repeating what they have already released and have said is better than expected.

bartle - I don't think people are necessarily surprised at the drop - as you say we have had prior experience. Doesn't mean it is justified.

I agree target prices are often not met - but which are you referring to 70p or 347p?..there is still considerable upside from 34p

since the big drop was monday - i would have expected a tr1 by now if any of the big boys had sold. not to say they wont in the future but not to say they wouldnt see now as very cheap and buy more

i believe the december RNS will have good news- why else would he say it was coming. he never usually gives a carrot. i dont think the timing is great - i think it would have more impact in january. however it is badly needed pre xmas for morale.

yes it is all speculation but what else is this board for?...it is to air thoughts and opinions

the price is where it is because HUR is on AIM. it is sell on news so these days it is more about trading than investment. Value is also based largely on sentiment. furthermore i doubt 90% of PIs really have a clue on what the details are. there have been no notifications of major shareholders changing position - so this should tell you something.

if it had been a big strike it would have been sold into as well resulting in probably only a 5% increase at close of play. the fact it was a bad drill result meant the price got butchered.
it is before christmas when many reduce exposure and also we have a general election .

Lancaster is going well and on track to be producing $200-240m a year. that is a p/e of 4 or so - amazing. We should have good news coming in the next two weeks - assuming it is delivered before xmas.

They have plans to tieback LC subject to approvals and joint venture agreement.

this will be back above 40p soon enough in my opinion.

I took the rns to mean that it was uncommercial. If the discovery at lincoln was worth 6%-10% SP increase then a similar drop would have been acceptable. 25% is ridiculous especially on our p/e ratio.

interesting that as i pointed out at the time the dear DR was quick to put a stop to the slight increase in SP with the rumour via RNS. yet every time the SP gets slaughtered for no reason he doesn't seem to give a poo....

maybe he should have let the rumour continue a bit longer that way when the inevitable drop occurs we might have been a bit more reasonable in terms of sp.

its been a very painful few days but i do think that the december update on lancaster will turn things around. of course if we just get back to where we were it will be the traders who are the only ones making money on hur. lesson learnt

EV - as I said earlier i think a lot of people would have sold today if it had been a great strike or as it turned out - non commecial. it is a time to have cash over shares for a lot of people. if boris wins i think market sentiment will improve.

the rns was bad and good. the well results were bad - but the update on production was very good.
I would have taken that way round any day. i had not put much value on warwick to be honest especially after the first drill result.

boris in and an update that lancaster will produce a lot of oil for a long time and this share will rerate in december in my opinion.

i can understand people selling at a loss today. a portfolio can go down 20% in a matter of minutes. however it seems to take a long time to recover. personally sitting on a £23k personal loss today. but look at the p/e ratio.....if someone had offered me hur shares at this price yesterday i would have grabbed them - they have a lot of oil out there

dont forget the successful drill at LC !