Member Info for CaptainSwag

the negative sentiment is just because of where the SP has been driven down to. if you think about was has been achieved in the last 12 months - everything is going well. better than expected results. though understandably it is hard when you are sitting on a huge paper loss

the company are clearly not too preoccupied with PIs. Maybe the fact that they haven't put their hand in pocket to buy shares - they don't feel our pain. i also definitely feel trice needs to improve his people skills.

Saying that their attempts at improving communication have seemingly been used to drive the share price down...for example when they announced there would be a december update - some people tried to use this as a warning alert etc.
I could understand why they might think why bother.

the reality is eventually barrels of oil will talk....we are producing lots and theres going to be more. 20k bod next quarter and full field plans being made. just a question of patience

oil company with p/e ratio less than 3......

i think we all know it is at the bottom....will bounce around 29/30p until it is ready to be moved back up in the new year.

it currently has a p/e ratio of less than 3. oil companies on average are 25p. we will have produced about 3.5m barrels by the end of the year.

How long do you think it is going to stay down here?

Street - Hur have been very transparent with their data including water.

They have also repeatedly said wells performing better than expected and water is not an issue.

If you haven't sold out then you haven't lost anything yet. Only a paper loss. If you do not need the money I would suggest you do what I am which is just sitting waiting . It should all sort out in the next quarter. Unless of course you don't believe HUR but do some of the posters on here pushing the negative narrative. In which case sell out.

we are still around...just only so many times you can re-iterate what is in the RNS - that results are better than expected and producing a shed load of oil - which is only going to get larger.

the market will do what it is going to do..*shrugs*...

I might be wrong but i was always under the impression that HUR were going to monetise Lancaster - selling it or as now producing - to make the money to drill and develop Halifax - which on paper is the big one. They didn't do a deal with spirit on it because it was the crown jewels.

to be honest do we want them to overstretch at the moment? lets prove up lancaster and then there is plenty of time for the big boy.

which way

the interim presentation shows operating cash flow
2020 base $200m upside $230m
2021 base $230m upside $300m

Obviously it will depend on oil prices

well they are going to continue to be producing 13k bod every day so the case just gets stronger day by day. in my opinion it will rerate at some stage next quarter - it is just a question of waiting it out.

especially as they will be increasing the production to 17-20k at some stage next quarter. and we will have CMD.

Good article - worth a read. Pretty much how I see things to be honest

from the RNS - Confirmation of the tie-in programme is expected during Q1 2020.

I think they are just covering all bases and giving all possibilities - better that than to assume it will be given and rub OGA up the wrong way

joe

yes the good news was that the licences are extended.just as well or no doubt somebody would be posting "doubts" over whether it would be renewed or not.

Whirlwind - was listed as suspended in the prsentations and appeared as concept studies in CMD presentation. I suspect the OGA said use it or lose it - and hurricane after studying it decided it was not worth it. nothing wrong with that. I think many of us are happy they are concentrating on maximising oil production from what is working better than expected

it doesn't say the OGA did not approve horizontal wells on GWA. If you read the RNS it advises their plans with regard to lincoln and as a consequence the company have no plans on GWA. The results at warwick were very disappointing and that surely is no surprise. As soon as the flow rates wwere announced the market saw that as a non goer. hence the drop in SP.

As i read it they are still planning on the lincoln tieback happening next year and are expecting confirmation next quarter - the rns is just giving all possible outcomes. I guess people read it how they want.

As far as Hurricane is concerned Lancaster is very much a goer on that RNS.

EV - i think some people may be angry that after the SP has been decimated in part due to negative rumours about the water cut..and the company issue an RNS where it says production results are actuakly better than expected and once again pointed out that the water is not an issue - certain people like yourself still keep bringing it up.

it is quite obvious that after the last RNS anyone perpetuating the water issue has an agenda. If you want to keep trying to hit the SP you can't really complain when people react. you are trying to lose people money and that is not a nice thing mate.

personally i think you are wasting your time. the water cut might have scared a few people last week but you can only cry wolf one time. it worked once but that is it.

the reality is in the next quarter we wil be producing 17-20k bod.

EV - CA will continue to slice because companies like PIs do this to make money. At some point you only make money if you monetise your holdings. However hopefully as they sell in the future more institutional investors will take their place. personally i would like to see the company off AIM but I do not think that will happen any time soon

As for the RNS . i guess most people read about the better than expected results and production - since that is what is being sold by the company with their regular offloads. which is why the price went up. the market will always decide whether it is positive or negative news

You can either read and focus on a perecentage of water which the company has repeatedly stated has no bearing on production

or

you can look at the production figures and how it will increase to 17k-20k per day next quarter and that they believe it will last long term

The productivity performance of each well on an individual basis is in excess of the Company's pre-start-up expectations.

yes i guess we are outside the base case

Dspp - it seems to me you got it wrong and instead of just holding your hands up you want to double down. I have given you the benefit of the doubt that your hypotheses did not have bad intent. However the more you persist in a narrative that is not there the more you are looking like you did have an agenda. May I suggest if you want to deal I. Data and draw scatter graphs use the production figures - as this is what most of us are interested in. Your hypotheses have already lost some people money for no reason I might add. Do you want to continue?

The trouble was the uncertainty was never there from the rns announcing drill result.

As far as I am aware all these negative hypotheses came out after the drop on drill result.

The water issue has been put to bed once again by hur. You have to question why anyone would bring it up again.

There will always be those who try to manipulate a share price and due to the nature of HUR (fractured basement) it has always been ripe low hanging fruit. however every day that goes by with 13k of production or more makes it more difficult.

I think sentiment has returned . from memory the price dropped quickly from 46p to 36p - i doubt many got to sell in that range. So anyone selling between 36p-29p can now get back in with little damage done.

people just need to read the RNS and not hypotheses which at best are from people who the saying "a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing" seems to apply to or at worst have intent.

dspp - i agree with buy. Apology accepted.

whichwaynow - the issue is as you just quoted the company have gone to great lengths to explain the water and how it is not afffecting production. this is based on the figures they supplied which he is using for his scattergraph.

he has come up with some hypotheses based on something that is not an issue. he has scared people into sellling and losing money.

i don't know if there is intent behind it - but it cetainly is open to criticsm.

how would a change in SP change their percentage of shares?

dspp

2) i don't have a problem with your data. My only issue is that the water figure you have used and gone on about repeatedly was released by hur already and they said it was better than they expected. They have also gone to great lengths to explain that it is not affecting production. which is backed up with the offloads we have had. According to hur there is no problem so why are you going on about it? at best you are muddying the water (so to speak) mistakenly in my view

4) your hypotheses are just that
5) you are long...have you bought any in the drop?..no don't answer that as we have no way of knowing.

9) disagree. it has been a perfect storm. people sell up at xmas for a variety of reasons. we have a general election which is also causing fear. Market was already spooked with ECO and I3E. i suspect as usual on AIM people sold on "news" especially sold on bad drill result. There were a couple of notifiable shorts opened immediately prior to RNS. negative rumours also spooked some - some have admitted on here. water % being one
so i think a lot of PIs have sold = price drop
10) there are several possibilities why HUR are releasing news in december, including

a) it has been 6 months and that is a very reasonable time frame to give an update. especially as that was the figure of min time needed for data collection.

b) they look to be wanting to improve communication

etc etc