Member Info for CaptainSwag

disagree...save the cash towards FFD.....if potential farm ins start to play hard ball then we have leverage.

sure they buy shares back it goes up 10%..what is to say it wont drop again as traders take profit.

cash is king

jiffy. i agree that it could be a slow return back but i dont think it will take 2 years. we do have to double to get where we were when we dropped on the bad result of the drill. (36p)

it took a year to go from 10p to 50p (jan 2016 - jan 2017) - and bearing in mind that was before oil was being produced so there was nothing tangible - not like the regular offloads we are selling at the moment.

if i was DR T i would be really trying to announce the longetivity of lancaster at CMD day...that would certainly be a game changer at this stage.

Totally agree with genghis. All highlighted before. I had already assumed the worst case scenario... And quite frankly the market had with the subsequent drops.

I suspect the drop today is just the timing has been bad and sentiment was already rock bottom.

It shows the company release news straight away for all those who have been casting aspersions on their honesty and integrity.

Not a great day for sp.. But nothi ngg has fundamentally changed.

Good opportunity for traders more grey hairs for lth.

awk - it is not just doubt on HUR knowledge - lets assume for a minute that they don't think that they are better equipped than trice to analyse the data. They are casting doubts on the honesty and integrity of the company.

AWK - exactly my thoughts. they are "using" data from a CPR 2 years ago whilst trice has been using detailed up to date data from the wells as they are being tested.

gorgeous - I would agree that SP is often not an accurate reflection of fundamentals - it can be future price expectation - but often it is the sentiment in the share. I remember being in one company that had a market capital lower than its cash in the bank! however the bod had been so atrocious nobody seemed to have confidence left in them

Share sentiment has been lowered in HUR by the constant attack on it with I might add no evidence - just people discrediting the company in terms of honesty or ignoring the repeated RNS that all is going better than expectation.

longwait - great post

I suspect most Pi do not have too much knowledge on fractured basement. They made a purchase on their trust in the company to deliver on the concept . unfortunately the perpetuation of water cut issues after RNS from the company is basically saying either the company is incompetent or dishonest. Dr T, whether you like him or not, is an expert - someone who does it for real rather than posting on boards with theories based on limited data. he has the real data and has made his position on it clear. As for fraud - the company have never shown anything other than professionalism in my view.

it has seemed to have been a bit of a tag team effort at times - I have to admit I haven't been involved in a share that has suffered like this before. it has been quite an eye opener. As I previously wrote some of the issues raised could have been more pertinent a year ago and not after months of oil production and increased bopd - so you wonder why now? the timing of articles especially directly after an RNS knowing that there will be no update for a while does influence investor sentiment.

The thing is that the more oxygen you all give the lemon fool guy the more you feed his ego and the more he will continue. I suspect that most who would have been scared off by him are out by now. personally I would just ignore his ramblings. unless issues with oil price or china i can not see this going much lower. the water cut issue has run out of steam.

it is basically what he thinks or what HUR say. i did describe 3 types of poster yesterday

if he really thought there was a serious issue he would have sold out on the quiet at a lot higher price. his constant knocking of hur suggests he wants the SP down - which either means a) he has already sold out and wants back in at a lower price. in other words he has not been honest.

or b) if as he says that he has not sold anything - then trying to drive the price down is not really the sign of great intelligence - or someone who you would want to listen to.

drill - well it would be strange to frequent a board and post on it if you were not invested in it. if you invest in a company then you should believe in it. so yes it is not unreasonable that most of the posters were HUR fans.

there are posters who have been questioning all sorts of things in the last month - however after the last RNS continuing to perpetuate some of those lines which have been dismissed by the company is in my opinion pretty weak.

"I believe the operational RNS data, what I'm trying to say is that their RNS isn't very helpful, which is frustrating as the data is there, it's just not being openly shared. Those of us that are trying to actively value this company are reduced to navigating complex methods. It's actually a very simple problem, either the 6 and 7z well will perform or they won't. All this drama around 'testing' ans 'understanding' is, I believe, fake."

Drill - i think the company have given the data - the current water cut etc. what extra specific data are you looking for exactly?

the wells have performed - hence all the offloads. the real question is whether the production will last longterm to warrant an FFD - so far it has - and the company will test until they are sure of the long term prospects. They have always been on the cautious side in my experience so it is only right that they take their time and get it right. hopefully this will be confirmed at CMD and then the next big question is how to proceed to FFD?

i think there are three types
1) those who believe the company - and everything is going well
2) those who don't - and I don't seem to recall seeing any evidence to back up the theory that the company is acting fraudulently.
3) Those who may or may not believe the company - but seem to want to discredit it for what i can only imagine is personal gain

drill - with all respect the company is the only one that knows the truth. all the rest is speculation.

That is why i am inclined to believe the RNS.

indy - you ask questions and came up with suppositions. here are mine.

"The 6 well has been run for much longer, nearly 2 months. Did they stop testing the 7z well early because they found increasing water cuts?"

They ran the well tests as long as they needed to get the answers they need. well 6 has always been a better in terms of water cut. I suspect they run it longer to see if there were any changes. it has run consistent for a longer period. good result.

" In the latest update there is no mention of perched water."

then there was no issue. good result. I don't know why you then mention water cut is minimal? i couldn't see any mention and this then contradicts your earlier statement.

"unless at any time prior, that data is outside of expectations."

there has been a lot of malicious rumour and people questioning language of rns etc. they are saying that they will update if any changes. if you dont hear anything it is because all is going well as previously stated. they cant keep issuing denials of the same thing.

"60% drop in 2 months is not normal"

NO. but maybe the SP has suffered because of posts like yours - which add 2+2 =5.

"inside information has been leaked and bad news is on the horizon.

that is quite a serious accusation of fraud and deceit. do you have any proof of that? I don't see hur as that kind of company and do not believe trice is that kind of man.

"The massive fall has been due to the water cut issues which are still not explained."

I think the company have clearly addressed the issue. they are not concerned and believe it is perched. furthermore it has not affected production which is better than forecast. unfortunately people like yourself keep ignoring what the company state and persist in promoting it as an issue. this is possibly why the 60% drop you mentioned before

"I hope I am wrong but I have a gut feeling I will be taking my losses on this very soon and moving on."

HUR says you are wrong. if you don't believe them then yes the best thing is to take your losses. I wish you best of luck

longwait - i agree that a low ball offer would be welcome at this moment to show that whatever the market decides the SP is it is undervaluing the company. which i firmly believe. and why I havent sold any but been increasing my stake when possible.

i am not one for stock market conspiracy theories normally. i could accept the sp crash was potentially coming with poor drill results and uncertainty over brexit election and xmas coming up...all the ducks were lined up...however i thought with election and xmas over the price would very slowly recover. i honestly didnt see it going below 30p which is why i still was happy to hold.

what surprised me was the persistent malicious rumours being spread and how much credence they seem to be given - when plain reading of the RNSs showed that the company had no concerns and results were better than expected.

hurricane always seems to suffer with bad timing - remember the oil crash effect - and certainly coronavirus has been another spook to the market.

However the price action since the initial RNS rise has again surprised me. the timing of this article is also very suspicious in my mind and certainly seems to have an agenda. so maybe you are right or maybe just certain unscrupulous individuals have smelt blood and an opportunity to hit the SP. i dont know.

anyway - lets hope we start to get a nice build up to CMD and we have great news.

lucky - i think anyone who has been involved in HUR over the last few years will have got a feel for trice.

he seems to me a stubborn old goat. I can't see a low ball offer being accepted - and if need be I can see hur using the proceeds from oil sales to fund the FFD themselves. I suspect many thought they would never produce oil without a farm in - and guess what . they did. they went it alone. The longer any potential partner leaves it the more expensive it will become. the country will need energy security more and more - the last couple of weeks have proved that. local oil also has a lower carbon footprint.

even one of HUR's most vocal critics said it was a very poor article and showed lack of understanding. comparing apples with snowballs.

my instinct was the comparisons were flawed but I don't know enough about the other companies as they have never really interested me - done the odd quick trade on them but none of them a holder for me. too much debt.

it was only the end of november that trice did his presentation on " UK’s next super-giant oil field" - that is what we are buying shares in....

sorry not press article but the article online that started this thread.....been a long day and then to come home and see we are back to square 1!

interesting timing of the article. no sooner than we get an rns dispelling all the dodgy rumours then we get a press article. it does seem to be a tag team event at the moment - destroying investor sentiment in hur.

the question is why now? these points in this article could have been raised last year. why now when we are producing with better than expected results and actually about to ramp up more production? when the company was valued at £1.2 billion with no production and concept unproved would have been a better time for the article surely?

I am not sure the comparison with the other companies works - debt/assets - i would need to research. also does not mean that they are valued correctly. p/e ratios for oil producers are usually 25 we are about 2. further more what value of our other assets? currently i would say zero.

FFD is the long term plan. if hur proves up the EPS then a farm in etc will come in. this is what they are doing and every shipment consolidates the concept.

it is painful. to see this slaughtered day after day. however the RNS once again put my mind at ease and it is just a question of sitting it out. what annoys me is the constant bashing in my mind is to create trading opportunities. yesterday some people would have made 15%. today its down 10% probably on the strength of this article - when it goes back up some will made 10%...in the meantime LTH have just got 10% more gray hair

always is quick to drop and much slower rise. however there is confirmation that there is nothing wrong - so should see the SP climb steadily but surely. Unfortunately we need almost 100% to get back to where we were at the start of the drop.

I agree with you alibi - at the moment i am sitting on a large paper loss - but it is only that. Once sold it becomes a real loss.
Another brutual day. However i asked myself the following question. "If I sold my HUR holding which company would I buy to regain my losses? at 24p HUR would be one of the strongest contenders.

I can't believe it is down to a mcap of less than £480m...that is a p/e ratio of about 2. Oil companies are generally 25..

Doesn't mean he is right either.

I trust the HUR RNS much more