Member Info for CaptainSwag

fair points southbreeze and longwait - but it doesnt change my mind .

my only interest is in what can affect SP at this moment. When the drill results came out that was my initial response. the market seemed to agree and hammered the SP. in my opinion too much as I hadn't associated that much value to GWA.

Sine then the macroeconomics have turned and got worse. there are also issues with spirit . Yes there might be better spots to drill wells in GWA but If we are going to drill anything I would prefer to go for an area that is more likely to yield results ( lancaster) or opening up halifax. the last thing we need is another potentially disappointing drill at GWA. What do you think that would do to the SP?

I still believe any company interested would be because of lancaster and halifax.

longwait - both warwick wells were deemed non commercial. lincoln crestal flowed at 9800 but was not world class API like lancaster. Since then POO has had a turbulent time and we are facing very different macroeconomics. At this current time I think it is too risky to be considered commercially viable for HUR. I would have my doubts that other companies would be interested at this time as well if that was all there was in the portfolio.

if the oil price were significantly higher and stability guaranteed then my opinion would be revised

would you prefer drilling on Lincoln or lancaster where there is clearly better flow rates and a world class API?

my speculation on it all currently stands as follows.

trice was always the boffin in his hut in the garden with the dream. He has in may ways treated the whole project like his own chemistry lab in his hut. it seemed to me that the emphasis was always about acquiring data which would benefit his understanding. oil produced created capital for him to experiment more. I think if he had found another well to work on productions wells would have been sold off to producers. He had shares but wasn't too bothered by the shareholder value as he had a good wage and was doing the work he loved....being paid for doing experiments

unfortunately disappointing drill results / scaremongering / covid/ oil price all came at the wrong time and in succession. people who believed him have lost money (kerogen etc) and so he lost their support. clearly mistakes have also been made esp not being commissioned, financial decisions and poor communications etc. I think two poor CMD days clearly did not seem to have any positive affect. the first he got snarky and the second was very amateur.

i think basically he lost the board and or they decided that the only way forward was to increase production and sell on. They probably saw that his roadmap was becoming potentially dangerous for the future of the company. they could probably have handled poor drill results and issues of well interefence but not along with the current macroeconomics. he clearly would rather carry on exploring and experimenting rather than sell on - even if meant the end of hur as a financial concern.

i suspect the new board will do what they can to increase production and wont waste money. If i was then I would get well 6 up to 16500 and then get the esp on it. GWA is a dead duck in my view. yes there was some oil but it is not commercial and therefore needs to be abandoned as cheaply as possible. Spirit be left to walk away.

that leads focusing on lancaster - improving production as cheaply as possible - drill well 8 if the maths add up.
i dont know if they would get a partner for a halifax drill at the moment - but that would be my aim to work towards to

i think this will be sold on to someone who has the financial clout to do what needs to be done for the whole of the portfolio. it is at rock bottom price and so i believe only matter of time. trice was in the way but no longer

only my saturday morning ramblings - fwiw

awk - good to see you back. Thank you for the rationale behind your decision. I hope you continue to look in every now and again with your thoughts. I always appreciate well thought out opinions especially those contrary to mine as it is the only way to learn and see both sides of the coin

show - the basement play always had some risk. i had an original target of £2 -£3 in mind. It could still happen but I doubt it. however that is the risk with exploration. I never expected 6p but there it is. I blame hur for some decisions (esp/ better communication etc) but other things have not been in their power - covid / oil price etc

I was very nervous for the first 6 months as that was when we were told the data could indicate the longetivity of the well. we have been producing oil now for almost a year - though with some issues.

fingers crossed it continues and we get a nice offer

Maverick - I agree that I think this is a reasonable target until a news update. We were 9p ish before - we are now producing more but lost trice. that would have affected sentiment of some whilst others will be excited by the possibilities now open such as selling the company.

transformer - agreed. Thats why trice had to go in my opinion. He would have been an obstacle

market is worried about the market the last two days....everything was down massively....plenty of time for the bonds.
i suspect the market will stabilise today ....

103000...would be nice...lol

well we have gone up to 12000 but lost trice - so i reckon 8p was a fair figure until an update from new board. A nice trade to be made at this price

used to be into cerp big..sold most out just a few grand sitting in one of my portfolios. was thinking of getting back in at the beginning of the week...glad i didnt.

very disappointed in koot....clearly given up on company and his roadmap.

longwait -it flowed originally at 16500 so i think its perfectly possible to get there - doing it carefully and watching out for any issues.
once esp is commissioned there will presumably be more output - i have no idea how much that could add. it would be nice if we could get to the capacity of AM - but i dont know if that is at all feasible

I think for a lot of people trice was hur....i pretty much stayed invested because of him when things got tough - so i can understand anyone packing up. i certainly dont feel it is the same company anymore and dont feel as tied to it as i was.

however personally i think the price is more likely to get better than worse - the production is increased and i think now the for sale sign has gone up. probably wont get as much but may be a lot quicker.

my opinion for what it is worth

So how many do you know? 10..20...30.. If you had said most of the shareholders you know were more confident the fair enough...but otherwise the comment is disgenous... but this has been typical of your slyly negative comments all day.

Fb was always a gamble. if people were confident pre production then that says volumes... Personally The more oil that gets extracted the more the concept gets proven in my book.

Here's an idea...if you are still invested why not explain why?

Because presumably the positives out weigh the negatives? And I don't mean a wishy washy it could all come good followed by a long list of worst case scenarios which is what I seem to keep reading from you.

most shareholders? - how many do you know? or are you basing it on a dozen or so regular posters on here?
personally I was most worried the first 6 months.

you really are on a mission today genghis. what has fuelled doubts is the constant attacking by posters ...some of who then tell us they are "still invested"

of course they are viable reservoirs - they are currently producing 12000 bod and it is going to be increased.

not a great deal of cash - lol

we are in a pandemic and oil price has been butchered by a saudi v russia price war. All the majors are considerably down. look at shale etc

Quite honestly to be breaking even at the moment is an achievement - let alone making $8- 10 a barrel profit.

genghis - your previous estimate of $32 was made yesterday at 11.03 for an average of 14k. i felt this was reasonable. I said previously i thought it would be up from $26 to $30 ish. so in the same range.

i know it t is only a guess but it is the way a day later you are now talking about $40 - which is naughty.

you may well be looking for a lower entry price. nothing wrong with that but be honest about it

genghis - sorry but since you sold out you always try to paint a very negative picture and would seem to be a bit disingenuous.
I dont remember $17 ever being mentioned as relating to 18000bod - they quoted this figure last year from memory when they were producing similar volumes. the 18000 has only been for a 3-4 months.

the overhead figure you actually quoted yesterday as being $32 in your opinion - so now it is $40 today why?

Sorry but i think you are being a bit naughty.

buy in may

the macroeconomics are for every company. I think it is currently pretty much priced in HUR. As we start to recover from covid and oil prices are better this should have a good effect.

whatever people virtual signal about fossil fuels - they still want to travel / heat properties / run technology etc. it is not going anywhere soon. also hur producing for uk is a lot greener than oil having to be shipped in from elswhere. also gives national security something than covid has highlighted the importance of

trice has gone. mixed feelings. disappointed but at the same time maybe for the best,

i dont think there are question marks over well 6 - they have just upped production - and looking to maximise production. sure cant both wells together but i am guessing they will try to get well 6 up to max capacity of AM

Shame about LTH but it hasnt affected SP too much....new interest , personally i dont care who owns the shares as long as the sp is healthy

bonds - still plenty of time to sort those out
unknown ambition - they have indicated that in the RNS

Anish Kapadia, research analyst at Hannam & Partners, said the changing of the guard at Hurricane made sense.

Mr Kapadia said: “The exit of CEO Robert Trice follows a somewhat disappointing recent operational performance, but this came after successfully executing a pioneering development over a period of weak oil prices in a harsh environment, achieving first production on time and on budget.

“Given some of the unexpected issues since then, and the shift of the company towards development and production optimisation, we believe a refreshed management team makes sense.

“Bringing in executives such as Beverley Smith with vast production development leadership experience, as well as a new non-executive with 50 years of industry experience, will allow some of the issues to be examined under a new lens, in our view.”