Member Info for CaptainSwag

fandg - that was my assumption - write off whirlwind and strath...i think lincoln will also take a bit of a hit - which gives the potential material downgrade they talk about. I am anticipating lancaster contingent resources going up from what trice said...- which if they can put a plan together increases reserves.

halifax was always the big one and trice said it was like lancaster.....but we will need a partner for that now.

fred...the thing is it is about moving forward to ffd. last year with oil prices and production planned hur clearly had the opportunity of going alone if there were no takers for the price Trice wanted.

i think there is a good chance production levels could get towards where previously forecast..plus when lincoln or well 8 are added.

the issue is that oil price is too low...and no guarantee where it is going to go in the next couple of years. personally i think there is support around a min of $40 but who knows.
so i see an offer that wont give us what we all dreamed of initially.

"The 2017 Competent Person's Reports attributed independently certified reserves to the Lancaster EPS
development and contingent resources associated with the overall West of Shetland
portfolio. The outcome of the technical review may lead to a material downgrade of these
contingent resource estimates. "

From this they are saying there is a possible downgrade of contingent resources of overall portfolio. I think that will be a probable given the poor drill results of GWA last year. There has to be serious questions on the contingent resources of GWA element - which is why in my mind i wrote it off last year. immediately on drill results the market hammered the SP down at the time by a ridiculously large percentage so this is already priced in and then some.

They are not talking about Lancaster reserves which is what matters at this moment in time. In fact trice stated there is a lot more oil down there at lancaster than they have previously stated so the reserve figure at lancaster should go up in the CPR

From what I can tell The current sp is giving zero value to the contingent resources anyway.

mk111 - you missed the most important thing - GIANT SQUID humping the sides of AM

i think the water cut has always been an easy target for anyone wanted to slam hur. trice always said it was perched water and he is supposed to be the guru and with all the data.

DSPP has no idea of what oil is like at halifax. he might as well say it was molten chocolate

trice believed it was in line with lancaster

After him trying to sell scattergraphs with 5 variables I lost complete interest in DSPP crayon man. Someone who was supposedly heavily invested and then talked down his share until he had to sell at a loss is not someone i would look for any advice from.

3. They have clearly not tried to flow the #7z well naturally again, because of the slugging. This indicates that the watercut in the #7z well had become too great, and the PI too little, for the #7z well to flow naturally in a sufficiently steady manner to be produceable.

why would they want to run well 7 again naturally? well 6 is clearly the better well in terms of production and water cut. you would never choose to run well 7 over 6. since they cant be run together at higher rates the obvious thing to do was run well 6 naturally and then try both with the ESPs..

.cant be bothered with the rest of his post

awk - i hear what you are saying....however they have already got both wells running without the interference interfering so to speak - whether that be damping out etc - and said they expect to finalise near term production within 2 weeks. they stated in edison report their goal was 20k. so that suggests to me that they think they will be able to get to near that in 2 weeks.

i thought from memory the flaring restriction was 30k?

awk - i suspect they wanted to see if the introduction of ESPs meant the two wells could run without the previous interference. it worked and they did. So the next step is increase the flow on both wells and see how far they can go.

we were at 20k from both wells with no ESP until the interference became an issue. so the questions is how much can be got with the ESPs on? of course it is best to be cautious so i wouldnt be surprised if they stick at 20k anyway

Agree sample. I have studied the sp movement closely over the years.. Often a delayed reaction and the sp goes up for no apparent reason. You have to remember the market makers try to avoid being on the wrong side of the trades.. Which affects their pricing and the tactics they take.

Agree with the tip to trice.. Although it was a tip to invest that has probably cost me a lot of money... I am not sure he was the best person to be put in charge and you certainly have to ask questions of his team. I suspect we are in better hands now from a business point of view...

I think the rns was better than the market seems to think. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upward movement to 7p in the next few days. Sort of delayed reaction.

We are looking at about 2 weeks for the next rns update from the look of it. The bod have ready stated their aim is 20k per day and I wod t be surprised if we are on the way (fingers crossed and touch wood)..

I think the wording wasn't particularly good.. And this may have had an effect along with Pelham... The good thing is that they must be out or nearly there... Which means the resistance at 6p is probably gone... That means the shorts may be looking to close too.

I think hur could be a slow burner for the next few months.. But if oil price continues and consumption increases we are making a decent profit and look to be on track... Drilling of new wells prob next spring..

well that is good news! should rise now

The water cut was disappointing but at the moment well within AM capabilities. The more oil that comes out the more it should be drained if perched - and I agree with ghengis that any change in evidence would have had to been communicated.

what is good is that with ESP on both wells can be operated at the same time. If they had been commissioned previously then we would possibly never had to deal with one well closing and the loss of sentiment and corresponding SP crash.

it is a shame that the SP has reacted today in the way it has. I suspect a possible up;ift to 7p will come in the next few days - as the news gets digested. We have seen it here before

well the press hasn't helped. they are focusing on the quarterly production figure being slightly down rather than looking at an increase in production from last update

Dive - i know. I was responding to pecten about not hedging previously.

pecten- whatever the hedge would have cost it would have been a lot less than the loss with oil price crash. Covid was known about in January and should have rang alarm bells - if finance is your job. They are supposed to do risk assessments and keep them monitored. Was a poor decision not too.

I still suspect this was down to stobie and possibly one of the bullets used to fire him.

Like the ESP not being commissioned beforehand - there was not enough foresight by the old board. If things had gone swimmingly it would have not mattered but as soon as issues came out the management failings were exposed.

this board look a lot more in control

yobbo - agreed on phrasing. when i first skimmed i thought it was negative. I wonder if that was why price crashed initially?...or maybe MMs were expecting a big rise and wanted to flush out some cheap buys themselves.

I agree it is a good RNS....increased production. I think the hedging was a good choice given uncertain macroeconomics.....personally i think oil price should hold and do better but a bit of insurance shows careful approach - an improvement on previous management.

lincoln decision is good.

CPR - since trice said there should be a lot more down there than originally thought i am hoping he is right and bod are just being cautious. anyway with lincoln in play rreserves will go up....

main thing is we are moving forward again.....making money..proving up concept.....still think a takeover will happen so this just increased the potential price

I doubt spirit will buy HUR - as already said they have their own issues. The board's connections would be an obvious choice as well as Rona Ridge neighbours. I suspect Trice might not have wanted to be sold on as part of the package - and hence his departure.

if there were any issues they would need to be communicated by RNS - so yes it is safe to assume. Well 6 has been pumping for over a year now (minus time when it was shut for well 7 solo testing) and the water cut has not been an issue.

Even if it were to become an issue there is well 7 - we have two wells - yes it has an increase in water cut but nothing the AM cant handle. besides perched water should eventually drain out.

board have made their intention clear to get to 20k per day. with a number of options. also still waiting on OGA news for lincoln.