Member Info for CaptainSwag

stu - hur is a strange one. The poor drill results last year and obviously this years macroeconomics have hit it hard - that was to be expected.

the old board didnt help with some of their actions/ decisions.

The real issue in my view is there has been a seemingly continued attack on it - as it is fractured basement and nobody really knows much about it it has left enough doubt for this to be very vulnerable . when in reality it has been producing for over a year in decent quantities - and remember this was only the secondary objective. the first was to gather enough data for a ffd.

i am hoping now the shorts will close - there is no way this is going back down to 5.5p again.
i still think the company will be sold on before the bonds become an issue - and even if not there is plenty of time andit can be refinanced

Surely if it was an aquifier they would know by now - it has been over a year.
trice has repeatedly said it was perched water. He is the expert with the data. If people are coming up with anything else you really have to question their credentials.
Stabilisation was the first marker - now it has hopefully it will start draining out

noel - the 18000 was 90% uptime of 20,000
so 17000 x 90% = 15300 so cost is $30-31 ......................so $12 on every barrel at the moment

tssz - Hur are being shorted.

The MMs will adjust the price to suit their needs. If any of the shorts are closing they may indeed have to fulfil a large order.
I have seen this pattern on Hur before after good rns....spike then drop ...then a few hours later it rises again.

the main thing is that the production has increased. water cut on well 7 has stabilised - so it is generating steady income and profits even in this dire time. September should see the going forward plans.

I think the RNS was in line with what i had expected/hoped. so if oil price plays its part we should be on the road to recovery.

lady - my guess is that the rates are going up with the ESPs and so probably has the water cut. the question is have they stabilised ? and is it a question of the perched water eventually draining out and reducing long term?

i suspect this is why things have taken longer than the rns suggested. However the tanker hopefully is a good sign (fingers crossed)

thanks miss dosh...that is great news

if that figure is true then that would seem to be good news on production levels

We do need a plan going forward eventually - whether that be well 8 or sidetrack and also lincoln. the company needs to progress and earn more income or be made shinier for a suitor. This will hopefully happen in september and build on any traction gained by next rns

i agree for the moment we just need an update on a consistent production figure and stable water cut.

A decision on future operational activity will be informed by the technical review. While no
decisions have been made on the nature and timing of future activity on Lancaster, the
Company believes that, given the design and procurement lead times likely to be involved
coupled with the constraints of the operational weather window West of Shetland during the
winter months, any well operations activity at the Lancaster field location would commence
late in the first quarter of 2021 at the earliest.
Results of the technical review and future production plans are expected no later than the
Company's interim 2020 financial results, which are provisionally scheduled for 11 September

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

They are deciding what the future activities and it will be announced in September - due to the weather window nothing will start until march 2021....

covid has screwed a lot of company's plans not just HUR

jax - this was very badly worded in the RNS in my view.
the possible downgrade is on contingent resource estimates which at this SP are not valued anyway. the massive drop when the poor gwa results were posted has already priced it as a duster in my view

The reserves at lancaster have not been affected. Trice has previously said that there is more oil down there - the new CPR should make everything clearer. Don't forget the extension of AM to 6 years will actually increase reserve figure there

any plans on the future of lincoln will also transfer resources to reserves there

genghis - will you stay at $33 this week? or is going to be another one of your sliding scales up to $40 again?

Genghis - funny last week you quoted $28...?
mind you it was a bit like how your adjusted all in price kept getting increased each post until up to nearly $40 !

it is the annual report 17/4/20. $26 for 18000 bod...so I think adjusting up would be $30-32 for 15000

AWK - there is for sale and then there is for sale. i agree bits were up for sale...hence the data room ..but maybe the question is at what price ? whether the price was realistic? I remember the comment from trice regarding the value of Lincoln.

my thinking is that the company is fully up for sale now and that the valuations will not be anywhere near previously

Dive centre - quite possible.
If the for sale has gone up ..then maybe he knew his days were numbered anyway.

well trice has to take some responsibility for the current SP - arrogance /poor communication / poor CMDs / non commissioning of ESP etc etc
He was very quick to dispel the one rumour that led to the sp rising but wasn't so forthcoming to do it for any of the many negative rumours.
the release of edison report 2 days before a horrendous RNS.

to be honest i think he needed to be removed as CEO - although i would have liked him kept on as the expert.
So far the new board the new board have struck the right chord and all we need is the wells to play ball and things should look up.

there is a possibility that we will be sold out cheap - but better that the SP stays where it is with no suitors interested...no OGA permission for Lincoln ...and the bonds due in 2 years.

MCB - was writing whilst you posted. I agree

dflynch - i am not so sure the board would be so aligned with LTH interests. They also dont have the emotional attachment that the founders had.

i think covid and oil price war unfortunately changed the parameters. lets assume they get towards the 20k bod they are targeting - their income is still currently hugely reduced to what the expected model was to bring in. personally i think we are doing well to survive and still generate profits - a lot of other oil companies probably wont be so lucky. of course oil price may recover - i think there is a good chance as countries will now need to pay for the damage of covid and they are not going to do that with a low oil price - however by when? and there is no guarantee other factors may not drive the price again. Hur can sit and wait to a certain extent but...

i always felt lancaster was there to prove the concept and generate income - either by selling off part or if need be from oil production to develop a FFD and ultimately move on to the big one halifax. currently they wont generate the cash and so the option is to sell off. unfortunately it has become very much a buyers market due to the macroeconomic uncertainty. however on the plus side any interested parties would be buying a producer at lancaster with permission for lincoln and halifax untapped - currently priced at not much more than a wild cat drilling campaign...

Trice went for a reason - yes i think he had managed things poorly (poor communication and CMD / non commission of ESP / lack of oil hedge etc) but in my view the real reason was because the bod realise the way forward is now to sell. He would have been in the way and clearly he had not fared well in previous attempts when the data room had been opened. I think he probably came across arrogant and unrealistic - i seem to remember a comment when he said he wouldn't sell lincoln for £500m? well those days are certainly gone. it was fine for him as he was collecting data and doing boffin stuff whilst shareholders have lost a lot of money. kerogen seem to have increased their influence on the bod and they will want monetisation - though remember they are not sitting with high average SP.

All my own ramblings and opinion

thank you...no worries.
I probably should have rechecked the article before posting. note to self.

awk - i read a lot of stuff and not the best memory in the world...so i read stuff but may have understood wrongly or it got blurred with time - it was several months ago.

the article was "Gas-Lifted High-Water-Cut Wells". on researchgate .....it was the gas that stuck in my head...

however you comments were unnecessary - you could have politely pointed out i was being a numptie - which i would have accepted....but if it makes you feel better? - i am not really into being a keyboard warrior. the place is much better if we can all share opinions and knowledge and maybe learn something.

ohmarko - we should get an RNS next week with production. i dont know what exit price you had in mind.....but if it goes well you should be in profit then.

other big news will be septemberish....so i dont think you will have to wait to 2022. in fact if the SP is still the same in 2022 i would say it would be game over

dive centre - i had already considered along those lines - maybe he wanted as much data as possible before esps used....fine while there was no interference but he got caught out when it played up in lockdown....and they couldnt then commission..

poor management and prob another bullet in the smoking gun