Member Info for CaptainSwag

stu - I would be surprised if we got an offer pre xmas - as the new CPR will not be out until next year . i think any interested company will want to see the results.

this is why even if there is any good news in september update - i think we will have months for the SP to drift down again - waiting for CPR and weather window. The one advantage is the forward plans will confirm if hur is a going concern going forward - something which as edison highlighted again yesterday is not sure given the downgrade.

Slip - fair point.

Not really sure what the point of th edison update was? Other than kick the share a bit more in the cojones... Could have waited for the tech review?

As someone who was very heavily invested - but sold out recently to just a min holding left over in a sipp (120,000 shares) it has been a rollercoaster ride.
the sp is where it is - initially because of GWA poor results -which seemed to rear the doubts - foll0wed by the water cut which enabled the sp to be attacked . sentiment left and fear seemed to replace. then 2020 hit (covid/oil price/ inteference/ trice departure and new board etc). sp decimation - when they never stopped production.

All of this could have been reversed - and it looked like we were up for sale with the main obstacle (trice) gone. the reserve downgrade was the final straw for me...the question is why has it been warned? are the board being professional and clearing out all possible bad news or is there something underhand? very difficult to hold with confidence at the moment in my opinion. however the sp has held well and this suggests to me that we are really at the bottom...any good news or less bad than dreaded and this should bounce nicely. i have been toying with a re-entry this week - but then logic kicks in and tells me to wait.

was trice right or wrong? he is the expert but then he always said that it would need time and data to confirm the long term success and ffd. i doubt very much he would get involved now even if they asked him - i cant see him wanting to help the current board.

i see the current board as much more corporate and better for running the company - however do they have the knowledge behind them?

fingers crossed for everyone here. For the first time i do believe the next RNS is binary. minimal downgrade /good plans and a future v huge downgrade and possible game over.

personally i think if the only producing wells are shut down for repairs this is RNS material. however whether you agree or not in this case it had already been leaked out and with the other issues previously suffered it made it potentially price sensitive and therefore had to be notified.

i would therefore expect notification when repairs are completed. the question is whether they will wait for production figures to be up back to pre shutdown levels or not.

it is a difficult one as it seems either trice or the new board have got it very wrong. either way it is not great for shareholders.
but hopefully all priced in now anyway.
the eps was always about gathering data for a ffd. now there are some doubts until tech committee and CPR reveal all.

first step is getting production back up and running. then the tech committee and forward plans. then CPR next year. I can't see it being sold until after CPR anyway.

thanks slift. value your input

1) my initial guess was that it was the equivalent of "a rattle" - which they needed to inspect and found the cause which needed a repair.
2) agreed
3) big question mark beforehand with results and silence from spirit since.... things certainly have improved with recent rns
4) $187.5 m for well 8 development and prob not until 2022.
5)
6) agreed and looking at all my holdings - cash may be king for a bit as better opportunities later on etc etc
7) good point on hedge.
8) weather window / timing i think will affect SP next year as AIM is very rns driven. there is still CPR which previously i had thought would lift SP but now?
9) wish i knew what had gone on. i assumed trice went because poor decisions/arrogance / communication and need for sale to progress project. however now i wonder if it was OWC related?
11) agreed.

interesting times - i really hope hur turns it around. i have a soft spot for it even though the story has now changed with the departure of trice. interesting comment by doc holliday on his podcast thingy yesterday - good whispers yet news was bad - like or loathe him i think he is always worth listening to.

GLA whatever your decision

10) Management. For what it is worth I have liked what they have done so far. I think the last rns may have been a blinder in some ways – as they got 2 lots of potentially damaging news out and probably cleared the decks as much as possible. I think they are obviously more corporate and I see them as much more able and willing to sell the company – if the downgrade doesn’t ruin things. However the fractured basement expert has gone. Are they up to the task for future plans ? do they have the required knowledge?

11) Sentiment has pretty much gone in the share.at the end of the day SP is all that really matters and I have been in oil companies valued at less than there cash before. It wasn’t pretty.

I think the next RNS(s) are much more binary than at any other time. If some of this gets clarified I will potentially get back in. HUR seems to drop pretty drastically and instantaneously however it usually goes up modestly and slowly so there should be time to get back in to take advantage on any good news.

Slift – it’s a very good question. part 1 of my opinion for what it is worth...

It has been pretty much bad news or RNS which left room to be attacked since GWA poor drill results. The market cap is 90% lower However HUR was producing - and there was always the option it could be sold off – this actually increased in my mind with the departure of trice.

The game changer for me was probable downgrade in reserves. Without knowing why? How much? And the long term implications it has put too much risk. there is the possibility in my mind that the stock could be now worthless once debt is taken into account. This is why I sold the bulk of my holding – long term hold and 2 trading pots.

There are a number of issues : short term ,long term issues and macroeconomics.

1) A repair has been needed – what was it? Will there be further issues and will it affect production? (in my opinion it will be fixed and there will be no dramas - but ..). If we don’t get an rns tomorrow there will be room for SP to be attacked. What does imminent mean?
2) Downgrade of reserve figure – i think there will be a drop on this. Although the price has done well this week – it was already pretty much on its knees. I think a good plan forward could easily recover this drop though – but will we get it?
3) Lincoln – I question whether spirit will still want to go ahead. They are up for sale and have their own issues. I see it more distracting than helpful in light of last RNS. Furthermore Lincoln clearly is not as good a prospect as Lancaster – if Lancaster is to be downgraded then what does that say about Lincoln? If spirit do get out that will have a negative effect on sentiment again
4) I would rather see well 8 than sidetrack but that is going to be expensive and take time– and what risk?
5) water cut – for what it is worth I think it will start going down but if it doesn’t?
6) Covid 19 – there is a serious risk of further wave(s) and damage to the economy.
7) Price of oil – for what it is worth I think this will be supported at these levels but again a question mark
8) Bonds – with good long term production I never saw this as an issue but with decrease in reserves? The price they are now trading at does not seem to instil confidence.
9) Weather window / time. If there is a good plan going forward which guarantees the future of the company I see nothing to increase the SP for a long time. Yes a good plan could recover some of the most recent drops but then what? I see a long hard slog as there will be a long time to wait for new drills – price will prob go down in between. Yes we could be producing oil but that has done little for SP and there is always some of these risks in the background especially macroeconomics. Covid second wave in flu season has to be a big worry.

awk - i disagree. the news that hur had stopped production had been leaked at least the day before - therefore i think they had to RNS. I certainly was expecting that in an RNS that morning.

What i wasn't expecting was a downgrade in reserves. We had already been notified of a potential downgrade in resources and quite honestly that was expected with poor GWA drill results and relinquishing of other licences. Reserves is quite a different matter to me. That was enough for me to sell up most of my holding.

from the rns the repair would be in addition to the "service" - it is just whether they could take the opportunity to do the service whilst everything was stopped.

the more i look at the rns - the more i think that they were possibly trying to deflect from the repair with the reserve downgrade - not really been any comments on this repair needed - and also got the potentially future bad news out. might well have been a very good tactic. the price would have been hit with the stoppage - less production and more doubts. if the next rns was a reserve downgrade then who knows what the price would have ended up. as it is the SP has held pretty well all things consider. though the reserve downgrade / future plans is really going to be a significant rns in my view

apologies genghis - i see what you mean - i read reduced and it didnt make sense

for 170m total costs they need 3,777,777 barrels of oil. which is 11157 over 328 days

genghis - the total costs were calculated with 20,000 bod at 90% uptime. hence why 18000 is used. so 10,400 would be comparable

slift - the only issue is that lancaster is their own source of income at the moment. in my view they need to cover all costs from lancaster - anything less and they will start burning the cash they need cash to move forward . 10,400 is currently very achievable .

slift - i am guessing you are just talking about lancaster costs?

if the total costs were 18000 x 365 x $26 = $170m

At $45 that wouldn't that be 10,400 bod?

rainbowchaser - funny enough i was commenting on this the night before the rns bomb dropped. Trice has stated that now due to data collected they can identify water zones as they drill through a combination of techniques - which should bode well for future drills as these can now be isolated before the well is completed. They can also isolate any poorer zones.

mcb55 - agreed on stability and "greener". i am not sure the press matters - one thing about covid is that you no longer hear about "climate" - i think people may have realised how much they took for granted. when actually faced with things being taken away there is more of a sobering up.

the first objective of eps was to prove concept and acquire data for ffd. the income generated was the icing. the concept has been proved with production so far. the longetivity was the next question - which is going to be determined by water cut and now potentially on the downgrade on reserves. if a ffd was viable there was always a way that HUR might progress whether through income/farm out / sell etc . unfortunately there would seem to be a bigger question mark on ffd from the last RNS. continuous problems are one thing - they have been overcoming them - but if the volumes dont add up then it is dead in the water.

if lancaster is dubious - i dont think it bodes well for lincoln which has always seemed to be a poorer prospect. halifax has always been the big one in my book - but will they still get the chance?

no.

i double checked which is why i gave exact figure.

awk - the absurd figure for lancaster 8 development was $187.5m

Which way - I seem to recall the cost of well 8 being being over $180m.