Member Info for CaptainSwag

"ESPs help control the water cut"

No they don'T
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AWK - i am sure i read that esps were used in gas fields where there were increasing water cuts and their effect was found to match or exceed performance in all cases.

i am not an oilie but would have thought it would be similar

awk - i remember reading that the 20k was initially with the expectation that ESP would be needed. Whilst i think it was percieved as a bonus that it could be got under natural flow i wonder if might not have done more damage to HUR sentiment than good.

if the esp sort out the interference then that shows that had they been commissioned earlier on - which in my mind is criminal that it wasnt - you test your kit straight off in case any issues - there would have been no need for the rns with shutting down well 7.

as slift said...my take is that they are just trying to get production near as possible to 20k with stable water cut - make it shiny/get cash in and sell off / JV.... trice's experiments and data gathering have possibly decimated the SP. I suspect like most academics he doesnt really live in the real world - and is not interested in the mundane chore of running an oil producer...he was more interested in data for his new paper etc. the sexy stuff as far as he is concerned.

The new management are clearly more corporate. i was looking at a picture of the board experiences and trice had no experience of running a big project...and boy does it show...yes it was his baby and he is the genius - but given the turn of events i am much more comfortable with new board. if all had gone well possibly trice would have got away with it. interesting how the OGA are clearly back on side after trice left..coincidence ? maybe not

slift - in annual report released in april - it was in trice's bit at the beginning from me.mory

slift - @ 18000 bod - A Brent price of $26 per barrel
covers the Company’s operating costs as well as its general and
administrative expenses and the coupon cost of the Convertible
Bond

lets say that goes up to $30- 32 at 15000.. and we use an average oil price of $42

183 days x 90% x 15000 bod x $ 10 profit = £24.7m profit for 6 months
i am on a phone so wont attempt the work out the first 6 months with variety of oil prices and productions
obviously the recent hedge has increased expenditure but there were probably savings as well during lockdown - apparently trice was a big biscuit eater so another saving there

so your figure of $37m is not unreasonable in my view

They still have considerable tax relief to use

agreed Mary..

Also remember the management is different now as well.....i am guessing less focus on ego and more on money.

Slift - i still think the issue is that sentiment has been affected by more than the actual "risk" and so in my opinion it has been over represented in the SP. however i do realise that i am biased and lets be honest my opinion means squat didly
The price is what it is. no one can argue with that. however profit is made by looking for a disconnect - and that is what keeps me in this share.

the thing is long term holders got in when the production risk was a lot lot higher. we didnt know if it would continue producing after 6 months of testing. As it is it has been producing for over a year and at no less than 10k bod in 2020 (from memory).

dive centre - i think a bid from premier is very unlikely too...what interested me is their repeated willingness for HUR to use their facilities named in another article and i believe hinted at here...would benefit hur and anyone else who might decide to purchase them

thanks slift...

the point is that with even a conservative figure it looks cheap..

slift - i think your projection was $24-$41m.....so say £25m as an average? gives 4 .5 ish compared to industry average of mid twenties.

slift - well the oil price is lower . however they are producing more than last year when production didn't even start until the summer...so i am not sure there will be a vast difference...

what was your figure for potential earnings this year ? be interesting to see the figure

genghis - dont know if that was directed at me? it is interesting as you have quite often been "subjective" on your maths here when it suits you

p/e ratio is based on price and earnings - so is a mathematical figure and therefore usual as part of someones research on a company. people use it all time. you compare with other companies in the same sector just as you do barrels produced or break even costs

no business is without risk - even bp have issues like oil spills etc etc...covid is/will have a devastating effect on a lot of oil companies...HUR can still survive (providing no issues with production) and can make a profit- which is pretty dam good at the moment all things considered.

I am not saying it is the only thing to consider - and people have to make their own mind up themselves. I have and for me the company is undervalued due to sentiment.

hur has been producing for over a year now. I get the question marks over water cut but it has never stopped production or income coming in.

sorry no p on the ratio....doh!

the p/e ratio for HUR is 2.44p according to HL . Since the figure is usually around 25p for oil producers i think this gives you an indication of whether HUR is under or over valued.

my take is that i suspect that pelham still have a bit more to get through....there were some odd movements last week where it went up quite a bit very briefly then got dragged down pretty quickly

this week however we are at the bottom (touch wood) so it is just a case of getting enough buys to cover the sell off..then it should go up.
just needs a bit of patience

"Premier’s chief executive Tony Durrant has noted the possibility that other finds in the area could be linked to the facilities developed for Solan.

This could make it possible to develop them relatively cheaply and quickly."

that looks like a nod to HUR in my view - especially if you take into account previous comments durrant has said...
worth noting

coldspy - guaranteed or my money back?

would have been surprised as rns said late july...prob 2 weeks to go

genghis - i thought total costs were $26-$27 per barrel. I would say that would go to $30-$32 on current production. However costs will probably have been saved as a priority with new board and some were already reduced last year from previous year.

I agree with Dive centre - if the company is still around in 2 years time the bonds will have been sorted out. However I think hur will be sold on before then

"Your wishes of an RNS came true, but within days, the conclusion was we need another one"

So if they do some people will only want another and another. Their job is to run the company and produce oil. You could question how much they care about the SP....but ultimately they probably feel it is not in their hands. they release RNS when there is a material change.

probably the next rns will be when they have got a stable near term production rate - in the next week or so.

keepwell - one of the issues is that we do not know what is going on in the background and if they are legally able to buy shares currently. lets say they were in discussion with a buyer...or even their knowledge of spirit negotiations etc etc.

I wished they had got off AIM long time ago