Member Info for CaptainSwag

was tempted with RRE too - but procrastinated and when the price went up i decided against -

Well done to holders - hoped they came out with profit

haggis - in my mind GWA was always a write off after the drilling results - i know others disagreed.

My impression (fwiw) was always that lancaster was always to prove the concept and then be sold off - hur keeping a stake . the cash was then going to be used to get at halifax which is the big one. GWA was always the lower prospect one which is why they didnt mind a deal with spirit - not on great terms initially i thought - but it got it going.

maybe the story would have been very different if they had gone for halifax first...in hindsight half of something would have been better than all of something that you cant afford to drill...

i only hope if hur is sold off as i believe it will be that they get a fair price for the assets - halifax - as whoever does get it and can drill it will potentially have won the lottery

i wonder if that is why they had a lower draught? to get into port ?

hasiba - we already know the cost of sales on 12900 bod was $21.8 per barrel produced so this works out prob $23.5 at 12000. general and admin expenses won't prob be known until year end. Money possibly should have be saved via furlough scheme/ less running costs of closed offices/ helicopters out to rig. some expenses were already reducing last year..apparently trice was a big biscuit eater so they saved a few bob there!

Lets be honest whatever updates are released - there are going to be people who say they dont believe it or its all going to change tmrw.

disappointing that the OGA result didnt come by the end of the month (presuming it is not released as RNS tmrw). hopefully soon and that will give an opportunity to advise any production increase.

I predict we will tread water around 6p for a bit then the market will decide it goes up with no rhyme or reason . I suspect 7-7.5p would be on the cards. All provided the giant squid doesnt reappear etc etc

yellowman - we could be at 20k sooner than you think.....if the esp finally get commissioned. remember well 6 has flowed 16500 naturally... the board have already admitted that 20k is the target.

i still think trice is going because the plan is to sell...and it probably wont be for the price he had been thinking of.

in the current climate i think big boys would prefer to buy a field producing with potential than a wild cat drill.

so yes i still think that we will get an offer and if I am honest I am not sure the board will care about holding out.
only my opinion. interesting times

yellowman - i would disagree..we had worked back up to 9p prior to trice chucking his toys out the pram...and i think we were on the road to 12p....to lose 30+% was overkill in my opinion.. his presence had hardly supported the SP...

the right RNS could uplift this quite easily....I also think there is a good chance we will be sold within 6-12 months if we can keep producing .

quick buck is all relative. there will be lots of trading opportunities along the way as well.

hasiba - there are also fractured basements that have produced for years. vietnam and yemen etc
We have 2 wells in one field..and waiting on news from OGA about another field. long term we also have the big one halifax field

not saying there arent risks - as with any oil field

hasiba

sustainability - was always the big issue before production started. We have now been producing for over a year but the SP has been decimated - actually the original meaning was reduce by 10% not by 90% and leave 10%- so wrong choice of word - apologies

most of the Sp decline was before Trice left - so you would think there might have been an uplift / stay the same on a new board or at least not that much of a dip. other than those who want to leave because the garden shed story has changed

you say temp shut of well 7 then it is one bet well? contradicting yourself. well 7 cant presently be run with well 6 - though the new board are looking into this. If there were issues with well 6 we would always be able to go back to well 7 albeit with higher water cut. Mind you working exclusively on well 7 could potentially drain the perched water .

obviously shutting one well meant that production prediction had to be readjusted - however board confirmed via edison that they intend to get back up to 20k a day

tomorrow last day of June - so fingers crossed for a nice RNS about OGA

Thanks slip

apart from beginning of june the traded volumes are not that high...there has to be a daily churn to make a market.

the big boys for the main part are in - which is encouraging,

As soon as trice went the for sale sign has gone up - just a matter of when and what price. It is going to be for £2/3 as I had hoped when I started investing before they discovered lancaster....however if it could get to 30p i would settle for that right now..

well we had the scare on oil prices. I am not saying that will go away completely..but we are going into the daddy of all recessions. money is going to have to come from somewhere...the cost of living is going to go up and i suspect oil prices too. saudi / russia etc are going to need that income bad. flooding the market has shown to not work

i suspect in addition there will be less emphasis on wild cat drills and more takeovers of existing fields. I hur can keep producing - and hopefully sort issues out and increase production then i think they could be in a good position

they were expecting to hear from OGA by the end of the month...so possible RNS next week

An increase in production however modest would be nice and show things are going in the right way

Trice has never given any indication that it would not work. Issues that need to be addressed.

My feeling - and that is all it is - is that it was based on managing decisions he hadn't made correctly (ESP being commissioned being one) , communications (II / potential buyers / Possibly even OGA) and the fact that the emphasis is going to be sold on to enable Rona ridge maximisation.

it is a loss that he is leaving....however possibly he threw his toys out of the pram when faced with the reality. I am not sure if either party are stronger with the division. If HUR does not succeed then I can't see him being given another chance.

Haggis - same boat as you..almost topped up £17k today...but i already have way too many...

I dont see it as a binary bet...i think the next RNS will be OGA news (expected by end of month) and maybe a moderate increase in production.

if OGA is good could rejuvenate SP - if its bad i am not sure it can go much lower - however i have been wrong on this before so wtfdik....

I dont think there is a news vacuum - just a question of waiting for something newsworthy.....they presumably are just getting on with things and not watching SP on the hour like we are....and sentiment has clearly gone down further - possibly people were unrealistic on time scales and already spooked by trice departure

sounds good idea..but i cant see them doing it. they will want cash in hand

fevertreeman - there have been no TR1s so the big boys havent changed their position.

The strategies have been set out in a general sense in the RNS and there is more detail in the edison report. They just need time to implement them.

lets be honest hur is now valued at what some companies spend on exploration drills. If i was looking around do you drill an unknown on buy out a company where there is already production ?

MK - She is interim. Therefore she is not guaranteed the job on a permanent position - whatever that means these days. She will be wanting to prove her worth to the current board in the hope of getting it. The may get some one else - better.

on the other hand they might just be lining it up to be sold

you have to wonder what price the shorters have set as their target? How low they expect HUR to go?
OGA decision expected in the next 7 days - a good one and they will be in trouble. if we are notified of increased production........they might have to buy a lot of shares back.

awk - interesting theory. There is a lot of shell connections on the current board.
I would like to hope that might facilitate a farm in or sell off.

if the production goes up then that might mean game on

WWN - hur have already stated there is much more oil down there - and that is with perched water taken into account