Member Info for CaptainSwag

Genghis i understand - but unfortunately other than a probably more accurate (cost of sales + other expense) figure your profit figure was no more true or less misleading than the OP.

At this stage we are all guessing .

Bartle - I see your point. However the research note is paid for by HUR and includes details not otherwise in the public domain. As such I think it is safe to assume that HUR are using as a voice to investors not governed by the RNS limitations.

I agree with you also in terms or reports and price prediction. The rarely seem to be accurate and therefore have to be taken with a pinch of salt. The fact that they talk about updating suggests that they are even aware that things could change dramatically such as oil price / OGA approval / covid19/ increased production etc

bartle - it was quoted in the edison report

Hurricane is studying different approaches to bring production to bring Lancaster EPS to 20,000bod and once we have a confirmation on the next steps, we will update our valuation accordingly.

genghis - it is pretty meaningless quoting profit for year based on a snapshot of today.

The new board have stated their aim of 20000 bod and reducing costs. So profit touch wood should increase.

The price of oil will obviously fluctuate with people thinking it could go up down etc.

Personally i think oil price will be supported around this level and if we start getting back to business it could go up. of course a second wave could happen - but that would be damaging for everyone including hur.

the question is survival and if the oil keeps being produced - hur will. I think those that do survive this will do well in the future when the weaker competition has been eliminated

i agree..something very dodgy to the start this morning.

the price has been pretty much the same all week and volumes low - if "someone " was selling i doubt that would be the case.

There haven't been any TR1s .

just the usual small churn from PIs. some are out some are in.

still not fact. only guesstimate. Just trying to keep you honest (* wink*)

AK - agreed. I am the same. I think we could realistically go back up to 8p in the short term - will probably stay down here for a bit then go up with no rhyme or reason. However after that we might need some increase in production to move up to the next level in my opinion.

AK - think I have covered that in detail many times - I consider it is because of sentiment which has been hammered from a number of angles .....often by people who claim to be holding? if true - not sure why they want to do that.

Genghis - last week you were $32 and then nearer $40.

c$35 - this is a back of fag box calculations at moment.We don;t know what costs have been saved during lockdown and also what measures the new board are taking etc.

My initial back of fag box calculations was 30p ish. i am not saying $35 is unreasonable even if i think it is high. however lets not say it as fact

AK - not sure if that was for me? i have never mentioned PMO or TLW. I remember looking at both a couple of years ago and deciding they were not companies i was interested in investing in - a lot of debt from memory ? I see TLW is down 80% since Dec last year - I dont know if this is valid or not but that would explain their low market cap....

as for price - 30p is £600m.
if the production of lancaster is upped to 20k and OGA come good on lincoln. plus halifax....is that so unreasonable?

that would be pretty much where we were hoping to be last year - when the company was valued a lot more

british - yes the oil they are currently producing is small change. however there is a lot more of it down there and also halifax (the big one) so with more work a lot more can be produced.big boys have the resources if the longetivity is confirmed

as for green energy - oil is not going to go away any time soon regardless of greta...hur has oil which is close and so transportation carbon foot print is reduced so greenish...also uk needs secure source if anything has been learnt this year.

i am not saying it is likely to be bp or shell - though current board links would maybe favour shell? - but i dont believe you can discount them

i am not sure how people are coming up with the new board are slating dr T? I don'y see that. Surely this part of the process was always going to be data collection and adjustment to what actually happened when oil was produced. The interference was clearly not expected - though in hindsight maybe the two wells should have been further apart in the first place? they need to react to the results.

As for Kitchen sink - You could argue that they have just been transparent and given the whole picture via edison. A criticism that some threw at trice for not doing . And also at the new board when the rns came out of the changing of the guard.

of course the jury is still out on them but I havent seen anything so far that does not seem reasonable.

reading edison report again.....and I find

"Hurricane is studying different approaches to bring production to bring Lancaster EPS to 20,000bod and once we have a confirmation on the next steps, we will update our valuation accordingly."

So we know the aim....and they have outlined that the immediate plan is well 6 - so presumably see how far it can go naturally and then with ESP

if this doesnt do it they then have the 4 possible options to bring on well 7 - the first of which is to use esp on this one- with presumably no additional costs. if that fails then there are 3 other options

So there is a good possibility to get 20k just by the ESPs - which should have been commissioned way before now - and surely that was on trice's watch so he has to take blame.

I still think trice has gone through some bad luck, bad management , poor communications and probably not being conducive to selling off the company. I think before the issues and macroeconomics HUR always had the possibility of going alone. This now looks very unlikely so the company will have to be sold. It is never going to go for what trice and us all wanted...but its a different ball game now.

next RNS should be Lincoln and within the next two weeks . since there is not much value given to this in the current share price - i see this as quite a good bet. if OGA dont help how much can it affect the SP? not saying there wouldnt be an initial 15% drop by the MMs but it would soon go back up. if OGA give a good answer - then that should uplift price. it could also give an update on any increase in production.

interesting times.

careful - you seem very selective in your choice of shorts to describe... i doubt kite have only had 4 shorts in 3 years.

I am sure they choose shares with poor sentiment that they think can be exploited. if they time it right they are quids in. if an rns drops next week with OGA approval and an increase in production...they will have sweaty shorts for sure!

remember that hopefully the water will drain out with time as well....

i have to agree with longwait. I think trice is highly respected and i consider him to have been honest all along from what I have seen. He may have had other faults but honesty was not one of them

thirdman - halifax is thought of as the big one. All the info is on the hurricane website. looking at the company powerpoint presentaions from the beginning would probably be the quickest way to get an idea. you can dig deeper if you need more info

I dont think you can say the market is right or wrong - it is what it is. hur is worth about 7p now whether or not I agree with that valuation
it is a bit like running a business the price is what you are willing to do something for and someone else is willing to pay. Personally I think the shares will be worth more in time so I wont sell my long term hold. I will trade other pots at this price

That is not to say that the market is not manipulated. the MMs need to make a decision on what they think the price should be. shorters will influence the price as well. the key is to recognise where the value is out of sync with the SP and capitalise on it

explorer company SP are often based on dreams and promise and sentiment. when a company becomes a producer the attitude changes. the difference between hur pre oil and post oil is largely the shift in sentiment. this changed with disappointing drills - changed some of the expectations. macroeconomics has gone crazy in the last few months. I can remember thinking brexit could potentially be an issue to the economy...lol. hur suffered the perfect storm. it was attacked from all angles etc. trice going has again affected sentiment. for some the story has completely changed - one mans dream in his garden shed. for others there is the possibility of a new beginning geared towards monetising.

i feel we have to look at hur with new eyes. what it is producing what assets it holds and the possibility /probability of being acquired. If like me you believe production will be increased and it will be sold at a premium to today's sp then i think it is a good buy.