Member Info for CaptainSwag

"Couldn’t have picked a worse inexperienced CEO in my opinion."

it is his first ceo job isn't it?
i guess his job interview went well with him saying all the right buzz words .......or word salad. however has been found to be lacking in any substance

"Anyone else in the class want to post the actual amount ODX will or have received? In pennies and pounds."

usual style of RNS from ODX ....leaves more questions than answers. Why did they not disclose actual figure? what is being hid?

look in reality any payment they got is good news - it pays the bods wages for a bit longer

"@CptSilly another others, its the same people daily spouting the same, why do dedicate such time to spouting your rubbish?"

it is interesting that if i was "pumping" the share you would not mind me on all day or call it spouting rubbish?
the most coherent posters on here all acknowledge the past and present failings in the company whether they believe there is a future or not.

looking at your posting history also is interesting that you call mine rubbish? i suspect a lot more thought and research went into mine than yours?

i have already made it clear that i think there is a possible trade on here...that was last week where anyone who bought in on reading my post would already be in profit. i think cd4 will raise it above current sp - though personally i would wait as SP could drift again in the wait for cd4 sale.

caley - unfortunately there are a lot of shares to be churned. which means it will take a lot of buying by new investors or those averaging down

how many will want to invest in odx now that it is no longer a covid play? will food intolerance be attractive to significant number of PI? if they do a modicum of research on the company's past will they even want to?

is food intolerance an attractive play for potential SH? given the company have not indicated specifically how they are going to build the business and sell product. a company of 30 years who can't turn a profit or seemingly sell anything other than their assets

in addition i think current market conditions are hardly appealing to investors ..and if they do there are plenty of much better run companies available at discount currently

"For what it is worth I believe the re-rate has started, there can be little downside from here"

some momentum has started - any payment news was good even though we don't know how much?
the sale in about a month of cd4 should add to the coffers. however SP will prob drop back as still a month to go and a little doubt over the need for DD

i would not say a rerate as we dont know sale of cd4 figure ...also as soon as 4p gets hit there will be the risk of huge sell off of the placing shares. those guys are not "invested" just took the opportunity for a quick flip. they have already been down for longer than they had anticipated so doubt their appetite for risk has increased.

"Let's not forget that the Pandemic is still raging, it ain't going away and there's still a requirement for testing, "

does not matter if ncyt are not receiving any of the cash associated with it - which the last RNS suggested

"Remember the H&N business is growing so it has potential to attain a far higher rating in due course."

do we know this for sure? no significant contracts have been announced

"The sell price is what to keep a close eye on and it's hardly moving."

why did the RNS not mention the figure for the repayment? bad rns or not full amount?

"Good point re the 12p incentive scheme"

unless the incentive scheme was being used as a means to generate a bit of froth on the SP. some people will read that as the company will achieve 12p......which is not necessarily going to happen.
bod must feel under pressure to get above 4p so that bucket shop flippers can sell - as otherwise they will never get another placing again..

baby - the buck stops with the head honcho. If someone else is writing the RNS - then salad man should sack him!

my problem is that either there is no coherent strategy or if there are then they - or rather he - is not communicating it to the market...And quite frankly that is down to the salad man

i think it unlikely that ncyt will be selling any tests to china.

yes cases are rising..and variant 4/5 seems more severe and focussing on lungs again which is bad news. however the company have given their belief that covid revenue will dry up. and they surely have more knowledge than us in terms of testing demand.

i am not sure of the revenue with monkey pox testing.

the questions is what is ncyt's next move?

oke - the danger is that odx have done their usual double speak. significant could really mean anything as they are not only getting rid of the loss making product but getting some cash for it. the fact that they are getting royalties means they can announce a lower sale price and people will latch on to future revenue.

whilst no company could be worse than odx it means the new company have reduced risk with a lower buy price - if it does not work they don't have to pay anymore to odx. i still have serious doubts on the revenue possible due to the market for this test

i have said all along i thought odx would get less than £3m. with the royalty clause I would lower this to £2m.

i still think there is a good trade at this price. i have no doubt some of the twitter boys will be all over this in a couple of weeks trying to generate a bit of froth...

i understand you using £6m as a figure for best case scenario...i even gave a hypothetical range of £1m surely the lowest possible -£3m my original best valuation guess- £7m a pie in the sky top valuation as an example of what different prices could do to the SP

using your more realistic uppermost valuation - it still shows that anything could happen
if we now look at a range of £1m surely the lowest? - £2m my new top guess - £6m your best valuation.
it gives a sense of what the different figures could do to the sp

I would suggest that £1m might add a 15% premium to sp
£2m might add 30%
£6m might add 90% - giving an SP of 6-7p

the factors to consider are how long would any rise last? due to
a) absence of any news on contracts of food intolerance
b) still the threat of £2.5m due to gov
and lastly and most importantly
c) lot of bucket shop flippers who will rush to sell their shares at a profit - knowing that they still have lots of warrants in reserve...risk free

i think there is a trade - as it is hard to see how any sale price could result in a lower sp than currently available. however timing on trade would be vital as otherwise you will be holding if any bad news on gov dispute came. the drop on that could be brutal

" I expect DA to be ratified, you have to be pragmatic about stuff and now is not the time for change."

when is?. when the sp is 50p?
he went walkaround for 100 days...for what? what did he learn ?
he has gone walkabout since and the revenue and sp have both crashed.

yet all he is interested in is a huge pay rise? really? for what? what value has he brought?

i suspect he will be ratified but gawd help us

"As I've said previously, reading between the lines, clearly loads going on behind the scenes here."

is this another linkedin link to promote an individuals CV?

the danger of assuming "busy busy busy" and "things going on in the background" is that the trading update comes out and shows no significant revenue has come in.
in addition it is not just about developing product - but the right product and monetising it

"I'm not sure I want DA to spend it. He hasn't shown me anything in his 9 months that says he'll spend it wisely."

amen to that. quite frankly it is hard to see the removal of salad man as bringing down the sp anymore. he has already managed to get it below cash in bank.
he clearly can succeed in a job interview but not in the actual job. how much more time is needed before the bod admit they chose the wrong man ?

great post poidster - and totally agree

"For me, personally, its not the capability of the company thats lacking, it's the leadership.
It's so frustrating,because for me, I can see where the opportunities are and there are many but Novacyt they seem to be frozen."

the strategy going from their pretty graphs is to wait for the next "pandemic" and hope to cash in. the awful toblerone prediction graph pretty much confirmed this,

they then did a bubble chart of most profitable areas and chose the least - insect thingy.

it should be quite clear to all by now that salad man has no real vision - he seems to be just treading water quoting marketing glossary and the usual rhetoric of share holder value.

i have said all along...ncyt need product brand and identification. we need to know clearly what the future products are and how they plan to monetise.
it seems that the year in which salad man has been in charge has been wasted. in a game where things take time this is criminal and will punish the company for some time

and we are expected to authorise a pay rise for this?

In addition the fact that they even have to mention the overdraft tells you they are desperate. It has only been a thing since we knew they had no significant revenue

" I say they are desperate"

They are desperate or they would not have had to place and sell cd4. They have already told everyone
They. Will have used up £900 k of the placing in just getting to sell cd4.

"On risk assessing this outfit it is not worth the risk imo. I understand the logic that the SP is beaten up due to what has happened and recovery plays will make people money......I just have zero confidence in ODX."

the argument used with odx is often the price has been smashed it will surely bounce up again.
the question is how much value the market have given CD4 already? if they get £1m or £3m or £7m how will the price react in each case?

they then have to negotiate the gov dispute - remember this is the crowd who could not understand original contract and sold alva at a loss

until they start "breaking" usa with their food tolerance test - and that is quite honestly a serious question mark as they have never been able to sell on any other continent then the company has no future. yes they will be able to pay wages for another year or so....but then what?

speculate on the cd4 bounce - there is a good case...but then sell and re evaluate. if you are holding and gov dispute goes against or the next trading update shows no progress- and the company is still losing money with no more assets to fire sale...then it wont be pretty

dr - tbh i doubt they are too worried day to day by the gov dispute other than they can't dip into all their available cash. probably not a bad thing with this ceo on past performance. It won't come out of their pockets and it is debateable how much they care about SP and SH value despite the rhetoric.

i suppose a question might be have they taken their eye off the ball a bit thinking covid revenue might have lasted longer ?