Member Info for CaneToad

Bottom line. One of the companies that is shorting BOO is legendary for running certain algos that are effectively a money machine. FYI. It's completely legal... Very few have ever heard abot these techniques and that's the way those hedge funds want it to stay. They have very aggressive lawyers who will quickly shutdown any attempts at changing this...

Read 'Flash Crash' or listen to that video and will really open your eyes.

You think that 'cellar boxing' is being used here?

I think there is definitely a systematic algo strategy running on BOO, like on many other UK stocks, but I don't think it's naked shorting. I think it's more likely to be order spoofing. I have to be careful about mentioning the company, but let me just say that the US and UK exchanges made changes to the Direct Market Access (DMA) connectivity layer more than a decade ago, to facilitate more profits for certain companies... Have a read of the book 'Flash Crash' for allk the details of how it works...

There's an interesting discussion in the following video, whre they mention on of the companies who is currently shorting BOO:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-u5g0VPMH2s

@investing101: "I don’t get it either. But what I’m not doing is buying more, I done so at 190, then 180, then 170. I paused in the 160s and now it’s in 150s, I realised I should have been selling at the levels above and buying now."

Buying more is exactly what I'll be doing at the levels that I calculated many weeks ago. The company has no debt. They're hugely cash generative and I'm happy to sit and wait for a year or two if necessary. I'm currently 13% down on 25k BOO shares and will add another 25-50k shares at lower levels.

@Shaidm2: Re the link: https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10299925/Investors-queue-bet-Boohoo-slide.html?ito=native_share_channel-home-preview

I'm wondering if that is a paid article from the hedge funds.... The article is designed to instill fear. e.g. the statement at the end "Boohoo rival Missguided is in talks with investment fund Alteri in a move aimed at strengthening its balance sheet."

Boohoo currently has no debt...but they've mentioned the other company to imply that Boohoo is also in a poor state...

Anybody intending to short Boohoo needs to first research what happened with VW in 2008 - the biggest short squeeze in history, which wiped out lots of hedge funds and private investors.

The P/E that I see in Hargreaves Lansdown is 8.19

In Stockpedia, the estimated 12m Forecast Rolling P/E is 204

I am guessing that it's because the future estimated EPS is small.

If you know the story of VW, you'll remember that all it takes is a single RNS... When VW were 'squeezed', they were heavily in debt, but BOO has no debt... The absolute size of institutional shorts don't look that large for BOO, but I expect there are lots of spread-betters that are going to get cooked.

@trading4good. I've seen lots of shorters destroyed. I remember the VW episode back in 2008. Every wiseguy in the UK was shorting VW and thought they were geniuses until the VW share price quintupled in a single day... it was the biggest short squeeze in history. There were lots of PI bankruptcies as well; people losing their houses etc.

The shorts look like they're winning at the moment, but it's getting riskier by the day. All it needs is a large buy by the Kamani family or a change in market sentiment and BOO could explode upwards.

I'm hanging back for now, but will be adding another large tranche at ~140p if it gets there and I expect that we'll see more institutional investors entering soon.

I see that PDL now qualifies for a Stocko screen: Greenblatt's Magic Formula(Quality Investing). That's a vey good sign and it's going to bring in more PIs once the sentiment improves.

Despite the consistent PDL share price drop, I don't see any deterioration in fundamentals. GEMD has been suffering even more than PDL and it has a perfect balance sheet....

The debt situation is under control and the balance sheet is in a decent state: Gross Gearing: 95.7%, Net Gearing: 62.9%

This is now close to the level at which I'll add some more. The next Earnings Release is seemingly on 14 Feb 2022, but perhaps we'll get an update before then.

Good luck!

From what I can see in Stocko:

- The forward P/E is 6.9
- They have headroom of ~£100m
- They expected to make a modest operational profit
- The consensus Price target (5 brokers) is still at 838p (155% above spot)
- Net Gearing is around 85%, which is not small, but it's not terrible either
- The only fund that I've seen that's reduced their holding laately is Montanaro Asset Management.

ODONNELL - you looking for a lower entry?

@ODONNELL: Kindly provide the calculations for your 97p NAV if you will.

I've had you filtered for a while, but saw a reply to your NAV comment and am now intrigued.

@notaflipper; "I have noticed a holdings RNS following a reduction in the shorts which could indicate some collusion to allow the shorters to close their shorts, or II to get their shares at a discount."

Funny you say that. The SEC has started a large investigation into collusion between research firms and short sellers today in the US. I expect there are dozens of short holdings here below the 0.5%. I've seen some very suspicious activity on AIM shares where it was fairly obvious what was going on.

Seriously. Most people do not understand that when buying most of these 'coins', you're investing in a software development project - it's a startup software company with 10 guys/gals and a Github repository! To see it valued at $10b takes some getting used to. I suspect that most will fall 99.9999%. The way I see these coins is as a new form of gambling in the shape of a financial market... I hope it goes on forever, but I doubt it will.

It's the highest US inflation in 39 years and gold rises 0.5% !!!!!!!!

I'm hanging on, maybe I'm an idiot; it's a pathetic performance by gold and silver - it's totally failed to protect anybody against inflation and store of value.

And maybe that 0.5% will be knocked down to 0.25% or -0.5% by next week. Very, very sad.

@Chuz: "I have to admit Ms irritates me with his soundbite gems of wisdom"

I've listened to MS a lot and it's always the same message. 'Bitcoin is going to be a million dollars by Christmas etc.', he'll never sell etc. He sounds super intelligent for sure, but RP is starting to sound silly - it's mostly just sophisticated waffle.

I think you have to make a distinction between the 'intrinsic' value of some of these coins and the value given by speculation. Don't underestimate the power of greed! It's an experiment in pure greed and offers an amazing trading opportunity. Maybe the greatest transfer of wealth in history.

I'm becoming a tiny bit skeptical of Raoul Pal and Micheal Saylor. They're losing effectiveness and starting to sound like they're 'somewhat biased' and talking their own book. I guess that's understandable, given that they're both filled to the ti*s in crypto...

"I love how de-rampers are now talking £1"

I have 25k shares, but know that these short-seller groups could push this as low as they want. 140p is not out of the question in my view. They try and attack when volume is low and sentiment is weakest and then let rip with the algos. With some luck, they'll be wrecked. Look back at what happened to VW if you doubt that hedge funds can be wrecked. Every hedge fund around tried to short that, along with a huge number of PIs - all were destroyed....

Bloomberg: "The U.S. Justice Department has launched an expansive criminal investigation into short selling by hedge funds and research firms, scrutinizing their symbiotic relationships and hunting for signs that they improperly coordinated trades or broke other laws to profit, according to people familiar with the matter."

"Authorities are prying into financial relationships between hedge funds and researchers, and hunting for signs that money managers sought to engineer startling stock drops or engaged in other abuses"

It's a plague in the UK. Much worse than in the US. I've reported some really obvious cases to the FCA and I had to explain to them what short-selling was... The short-sellers are making a killing on BOO. Laughing their heads off, fleecing investors.

My own strategy remains 100% intact and I'll add again at 140p if these shady individuals drop it that low.

Short-term - I agree, it's now in bear territory. No question about that. I'll be looking to add more ARB, but waiting on the sideline for now as miners are likely to drop significantly if BTC crashes pulls back to $30k. Long-term: happy days.

All just my opinion; perhaps 100% wrong, like every other commentator.

@Geowiz: "With cash in bank at $2mm and expenditure expected to be $8 mm it’s likely a raise will be required I think as the production rate will always slide without more drills. Looks like they are selling everything else to keep Egypt going."

1) Egypt is very profitable; it was even profitable last year and has one of the lowest production costs; it's continuing to generate lots of cash

2) The company has divested the UK CNS & ITALY licences and is due a large wad of cash in Q1. See the recent RNS. ~$4.4m for UK CNS alone; an extra $2.54m for Italy. That amounts to $7m. Then they have $2m in the bank and lots of cashflow!

3) The share price has fallen massively. It was almost to 3x this price in March, but they're in a better position now

4) The entire management team have recently bought @2.95p and they had reasonably significant positions already

5) There is a good spread of institutional investors and from what I see, none have reduced

This looks like one of the best UK oil & gas opportunites. This is a really exciting pportunity, with multi-bag possibility.

Maybe it's this (p4 from 2021 Interim Results)?

"$5.2m of upfront consideration expected following completion of UK CNS & Selva transactions"

If this is correct, it seems to be very significant with respect to Mkt Cap?