Member Info for CaneToad

Assuming 2000 boepd and $70 oil, I see weekly revenue 7*2000*42.53%*70 of $416,794.

As a check, if I used 2,200 bopd (66,000/month), monthly would be 30*2200*42.53%*70 of $1.96m, which agrees with the calculation on page 9 of Interim Results 1H 2021.

So the FY guidance of 2100-2300 is actually referring to the current production level, rather than the average over the year?

Where is that confirmed?

I also noticed that Petra has also had a (slight) up day. It would be nice to think that diamond miners are seen as defensive - not sure if that's true or not.

HopeGreed: Not meaning to boast. I've never made it BIG like lots of you guys, @Pops, @Splatted etc. I've just made a modest profit on small'ish trades, which is about all my skill allows... I do try to be repeatable though.

(1) Do you have a successful trading history; if so, what's the ROI for the past year. Is it more than £1m?
(2) Are you qualified to give advice?

Yes - I agree, those are all reasonable explanations.

But you still haven't answered my questions........

The only reason that people don't answer questions like that is because they are bull*****er or very lonely. Nobody wants to listent to either... If you answer the questions honestly, I'll take you seriously.

@mckLondon: "You will see one or two green days this week because the SP entered oversold territory again but that will not mean it’s a confirmed reversal."

That is obvious. You did not answer my questions. Why not be honest with people and answer those questions - or pis* off!

@Chuz: "You better be wrong"

Don't worry. I'm usually wrong. That's the way with trading. Don't confuse being right with making money... For me, it's mostly about risk management and leaving my options open. The UK market is in freefall now and I'm conserving dry powder.

FYI: I have traded ARB 35 times and made money EVERY time. I'm hanging back now, because I don't see a single technical or fundamental reason to add any more at this time. It's always possible to fix a break-even point **IF** you have the funds to buy more. You're at the mercy of the markets if you're 100% invested and it crashes.

@Chuz: "I'm suprised at the fall today with all the institutions that have bought in."

All respect to you Sir. But I am not surprised ARB is dropping. We look to be on the verge of a major market correction. Most UK shares have been dropping heavily for months now. I like ARB and I look forward to buying more, but for me, the risk is too great that I'd be marooned at a high share pirce for ages. I can see a probability this will go into freefall; we've not even started a US correction yet - if that happens.

I hope I am 100% wrong. I have a NASDAQ put option that will expire worthless tomorrow, but will probably buy another.

"price of btc at 16:30 fri similar to the btc price now but the share price is 10% lower from fridays closing share price.
why why why why."

Refer to my post below. It's NOT the current price of BTC that matters.

@MckLondon: "I think you need to stop averaging down at random, and hoping it’s the bottom but wait for reversal confirmation, then when it happens average down just once, job done. I will tell you when it happens."

Who said we're averaging-down at random?

Have you read 'the Art of Execution' that I recommended to you?

Question 1. Have you made more than a £1m trading? If so, is it £5m or maybe £10m?
Question 2: Are you a registered financial advisor (I was earlier in my career, but only an insane person would give advice to strangers on a public forum as you don't know peoples individual circumstances.

If your answser to (1) is YES, I am inclined to listen to you. e.g. if you're of the calibre of Kristjan Qullamaggie.

If your answer to question (2) is NO, then you need to be extremely careful that you're not breaking the law....

If you answer NO to both questions - be honest, I am simply going to filter you and I recommend others to do the same.

I have ~25k shares @178 average.

If it continues to drop, I'm planning to purchase another 15k shares at 135-140p and another 20k shares @115p.

I plan to hold for 6m-2 years.

This looks like a textbook short attack.

The consensus target price from 24 brokers (Stockopedia) is 350.45p, which is ~130% above the current price, but I expect that to rise once the financials of the newly acquired businesses are released.

@unhooked: I totally agree with what you said. It's been an awful couple of months. Large parts of the UK market have been declining since June. I've no concern about CPI and I think the drop is overdone, but will hang back until the dust settles as I have a relatively large position here.

@Monkfish: I had a 'large' holding of crypto a few months back (15% of my portfolio), but trimmed it once the momentum disappeared; I currently hold about 2.5%. As long as a holding is modest, you can always fix the break-even price - that's as long as the asset doesn't collapse permanently... I don't think it will, but I'm holding off until I see a bottom, which could be a long way below the current level. People need to look at what happened to Nasdaq in 2000 if they don't believe that tech stocks can quickly drop 90%...

@Emarr: "Bitcoin is 50% up from July and Argo are back there with more stash. Unless this is the big dip for the cycle, today is a time to buy if you dare. (NFA)."

The price of a miner does not depend so much on today's BTC price, but the *expected future* BTC price. This is the same for any miner - e.g. a Gold Miner. You'll see that Gold is still quite close to its ATH, but that Gold Miners have crashed over the past 6m. Another thing is te sentiment - which is terrible at the moment.

In my view, ARB will drop significantly from here unless BTC pumps massively. That's just my view and it might be 100% wrong.

@Monkfish: "This is looking very concerning for all holders now. What is going on?"

It's not specific to ARB or BTC. The market is very weak and lots of stocks have been falling for several months. Stocks like ARB are usually hit the hardest in this type of scenario. Nobody knows what the market is going to do, but if it crashes, I'd expect a significant downward correction for ARB. I'm just going to ride it out.

Note: I am long ARB, RIOT, DGHI, BTC, ETH, DOT, SOL, ADA. Everything that I say is just opinion and might be 100% wrong.

@donotpanic: "BTC have to drop to 35000 -36000 for this to go to 80"

I disagree with that. The share price can do anything it wants. It all depends on supply and demand.

@MrCarats: the way I see it is that the Williamson mine has been closed since early last year and a large package of diamonds had been confiscated by the government. I only have access to the same info that you do and I'm not an expert, but from what I can tell, this at least allows: (1) one of their main mines to reopen and (b) the confiscated diamonds can be sold.

Clearly, investing in diamond mines is risky. If you were an investor in Gem Diamonds (GEMD), you would have seen a terrible decline in share price there as well. Please jote that GEMD has no debt and a very strong balance sheet.

Happy to hear any alternative views and suggest that you do your own research.