Member Info for CaneToad

Anybody able to guess how much they'll generate from the sale of these assets?

It's interesting to see that at the current price for UOG and I3E, the cost (to an investor) for each BOEPD is about the same for both UOG and I3E, which is ~£6,500.

Is this a coincidence or the pricing power of the market!

UOG. BOEPD: 2,200, Mkt Cap (£m): 14.6
I3E. BOEPD: 19,000,Mkt Cap (£m): 122.2

Nobody has any idea; everybody is just guessing. If BTC falls significantly, then so will ARB and other miners. Don't ever believe anybody when they say a share 'can't fall any further' - it's complete nonsense...

I currently have ~25k BOO shares (now 11% underwater). Will add another 15k shares at 140p if the shorters manage to drive it down that low.

Bottom line: As an investor/trader. If you've made/lost money it's 100% your own doing. You had the opportunity to use a stop-loss and walk away, but you were greedy and wanted *more* like every other speculator in history and the tide 'might' have now turned. If you think it's going down from here, you're free to open a short. In 1w week time, nobody will remember the whingers here...

Guys - if BTC was at $100k and ARB at $2, you'd be saying that PW is a genius.

What we're seeing play out here is the same that has played out a million times in the past 100 years of markets. Human behaviour never changes...

Personally, I see three strategies to follow now:

(1) Sell out
(2) HODL - best to turn off your computer and do something else as most of the market sucks atm
(3) Actively trade it - word of warning - it's could get stressful and might be dangerous

I'm following (3) and am accumulating, *very* gradually.

Disclaimer: My view might be 100%/ totally and utterly wrong.

"MM,s are keeping this share low on purpose"

I do not think that's what it is.
There are significant shorts here + the UK market is very choppy and trending down.

It's not just GEMD. Petra has similar problems, recently breaking below its trading range.; lots of UK and US stocks have also been falling back for several months now. And I think this will continue while there's so much uncertainty around covid.
I'll be accumulating more GEMD once it bottoms, but from the look of the chart, that could be a while off.

Just my guess.

@Crikey Chuz - you sound depressed! Is it much better over at RIOT? They also look a bit sick atm.

It's simple. Nobody is sure what BTC is doing, but technically it's looking like a bear market might/potentially/maybe starting. If it is, then ARB will fall - significantly, like all other miners. No miners are going to rally until BTC breaks returns to a bull market. Maybe Greed has reached its peak for this cycle? Then there's the dilution spectre on top of all that other uncertainty. All standard stuff for Crypto Land! Nothing new here. Maybe some great opportunities just around the corner.

This one now reminds me of Petrofac. No doubt, there will be a raise at some stage to cover the fine, exactly as for PFC. Until then, it's hard to see why it's not going to drift lower.

I thought the results were 'OK'.

The level of deferred compensation came as a bit of a surprise (my ignorance). So did the full drawdown of the term loan and RCF; in light of that, I'm surprised they're paying a dividend.

It still looks attractively priced on a relative basis, compared to peers.

That's what some news sites are saying; travel stocks taken a dive. I would think that any more covid restrictions should be good for RMG.

@Snip: "You've posted 1800+ times since opening your account less than 6 months ago"

So what? I trade fulltime, for a living - profitably. I've executed 500+ trades in that time. This board is a ghost town and I can't see what's wrong with raising genuine issues.

Looks like BTC started dropping the moment that momentum disappeared from the US market, hence the ARB drop. With some luck, the yanks will push it back up again later in the day.

@Snip: I agree, UK investors are constant moaners. But I think there are genuine questions that need to be asked around the old Ex-IM Bank announcement and the l;ack of progress - I'll do that directly with the comnpany. Also, why can't we be told where the production is going? If it's China, that changes the investment thesis, unless they make an offer for the entire company as for Bacanora.

The main reason that I use these boards is to hear news that's different to what I already know. If I'd lost faith in these shares I would definitely have already sold out.

PERE looked very attractive while it controlled Minto. For unknown reasons, it lost that and is now a heavily indebted fund with a relatively minor (non-controlling) stake in a single company. Maybe Gati will pull something out of the hat, but most will want to see how MNTO develops and how the debt is reduced before investing significantly in PERE.

The problem is that cashflows coming from MNTO will go staight to Gati and it's not clear when MNTO would be able to start paying dividends; until then, PERE has no income. That's not an attractive situation. If you want the upsdie of MNTO, you just buy shares in them directly. With PERE, you're buying into a company with a lot of debt and a very concentrated ownership (Gati). If copper rallies and MNTO makes piles of cash, maybe PERE will start to look attractive as a punt on mean-reversion back to NAV. While I think that it's likely, a more careful investor will look at why Minto was mothballed by Capstone in the first place. Bottom line - MNTO will do very nicely if copper stays elevated or else there'll be a big problem for PERE.

Obviously, this will go up and down a lot more before I sell; it could drop later today. 50% is the absolute minimum I want off this one over a year , but I expect that 100% is probably achievable within 2y, maybe sooner.

I was just waiting for the 'they're going to go bankrupt' or 'there's a raise coming soon' from the muppets. Yeah - right!

Makes me laugh when I hear people basing investment decisions on the reading of tea leaves. It's very simple: the BOO price had dropped massively and it became very attractive, so I bought it myself. Norges Bank and other institutional investors have done the same... Once it's half way back to the all time highs, muppets will descend en-masse and buy like crazy!