Member Info for CaneToad

Considering how risky it looks, I'd want:

RIOT: < 20
ARB: < 90

Probably won't happen, but that's where my next buy orders will be.

"I think HUT looks like the Best Buy just now in the pre-market."

Back-of-envelope: BTC now is about the same as in August, while HUT is now significantly more expensive. And BTC now looks much more bearish than in August and HUT is heading down even faster (it's more-or-less in freefall). So I'd only buy a micro position in HUT atm, as I think there's a decent chance it's going a *lot* lower.

There's always the chance that BTC could abruptly turn around and so could HUT, but on the balance of probability, a big downward move looks more likely to me.

WTF do I know? nothing - like everbody else...

In fact, the pre-market prices are already down 10-20% ...

RIOT: -10%
MARA: -10%
HUT 8: -15%
==========
ARBK: -2%

It would be no surprise to me if we see the US miners drop another 10-20% today. ARB would almost certainly follow those down - just my opinion though. Our fate is in the hands of BTC, NASDAQ and the other miners.

@Amenensia: "My personal view is that we'll revisit $43k before we push back up so I'll wait for that."

My 2 satoshis is that BTC will drop below $40k, but it all depends on NASDAQ. Currently, NASDAQ is 0.5% down and most coins are sinking like the Titanic. I might even entertain the idea of placing some shorts, probably via put options though.

@Jamesy1980"Don't expect arb to rise and fall proportionately with the crypto it mines as it still has great margins"

If BTC falls significantly from here, then so will ARB - it's just my opinion, which might be wrong, but it's an opinion supported by the fact that the ARB-BTC correlation is high over the long-term. BTC is now starting to look quite bearish, especially on the weekly chart. Furthermore, now that there are options on ARBK, I expect that there's going to be some buying in the put options, which paradoxically will drive down the ARB price further, as the dealers short-sell ARBK to hedge the put options that they've sold...

ARB is a great company - yes. Share price is a different issue though and is looking very weak.

@SteveE60: "I'm still hunting for a good copper mine to invest in if anyone got any thoughts !"

Look at CAML and ATYM if you're after a copper miner with a solid balance sheet. Both also pay a healthy dividend and are quite cheap. Neither of those will be a multi-bagger, but should have good upside if copper stays strong.

@Sharebel: "Overdone drop - BTC rallying - buy the dip HODL"

What planet are you on... Most coins heavily down today after a shocking weekend. ARB hardly fallen, means it's likely to follow BTC very soon. All it needs is for Nasdaq to turn heavily negative (it's already slightly red today...) and it will be a bloodbath for crypto.

There is no comparison whatsoever with Centrica. Anyone proposing that they're similar businesses is an idiot.

At the peak of Centrica's problems, they had huge debts. Boohoo has none - that's just the start. Then thre's the fact that Centrica operated in a regulated industry, which Boo doesn't. I'm not even going to bother mentioning anything else, because it's totally lame to compare the two...

Boohoo is currently suffering, like a lot of growth stocks and the terrible market sentiment. I can't see much in the busines that's changed. It's just PI's frightened for no reason.

They're exceptionally 'cheap' on a forward 12m basis, with P/E=1.6 according to Stockopedia.

One of the problems is that they've got a spotty record, so their P/E was 19.7 for 2020, while for the trailing 12m, it's 16.4. Neither of those figures is cheap, and considering the micro size of the company, why would somebody currently invest based on those metrics?

Furthermore, the technicals are terrible, with the share price losing 2/3 of its value since March.

I'll need to do some more research into the reliability of these forecasts shown in Stocko before adding any more in case it's total 'pie-in-the-sky' / jam tomorrow. I've written off the UK assets as I doubt they'll ever get planning approval.

I have faith in the management...
They've made a dramatic turnaround and are returning significant amounts of money to shareholders.
This share has also been rock-solid on days when almost everything else has pulled back heavily.
If anything, I'll be increasing my holding here - significantly.

I also have zero chance of selling. I'll hang on long-term if necessary.
It's hard to see the value of what these funds add, which is blatant manipulation, rather than just shorting the share. Unfortunately, the FCA don't seem to have any idea even what to look for.

Though it seems that diamonds miners are negatively correlated with the diamond market at the moment... Petra has also been taking a nosedive over the past few weeks.

We're expecting an update by end of next week at latest. Here is what IR (recently) told me:

"We are planning to have a pre-close trading update in mid-December, with the date yet to be confirmed."

Maybe they'll provide the date this week, with the actual update next week - just a guess.

More good news for diamnds (from Botswana Diamonds RNS)

"Prices have rebounded in recent times after a severe fall in the past two years. Demand is strong for gem quality diamonds in the emerging markets and in the US.

Meanwhile supply is at best static with closures in Australia and production problems in Siberia among other problems. The long-term future looks strong as more people enter the middle class and want the things that most European and American consumers buy.

Who would have thought that a pandemic would be positive for the diamond traders? As we re-emerge from the shadow of the pandemic we believe that the middle market of the industry (traders and cutters) is in the best shape for many years. Stocks are low, liquidity is good, prices are going up and demand for both rough and polished is very strong. The post-Covid years should see very strong diamond acquisition and gifting. We expect good times ahead for the industry."

Thanks for the article.

In the long-term, it can only mean one thing for MYX. At a £13.9m market cap and director buys @72p, with current buy price 75p, this is still a great entry point.

@splatted: By 'BOD' - you mean the Australian cannabis stock? Looks ****ty, but WTF do I know...

For your shorts, I'd consider via put options; not sure I'd have the stomach to do it directly.

@splatted: Would be interest to hear about some of the other assets you trade.

@HopeGreedNothing: "Canetoad - how low do you think it could go, any opinions on the 30k level?"

I think we're likely to see a decent bounce quite soon, but whether or not that's the bottom, it's impossible to say... I can't see any bounce coming for miners, unless we're in a very clear BTC uptrend.

If Nasdaq was to experience a significant drop, I can't see $30k holding for BTC.

"I am going 10:1 leverage on the safe ones."

Makes me think of Chris from MMCrypto, 'drenched in spit', with his giant 14x trade on BTC. I'm expecting that he got liquidated early this morning. He might have to sell one of his new cars... I hope he had a stop or was liquidated or that size drop could have done some serious damage to the guy...