Member Info for CaneToad

I'll revisit at 30p.
Other than that, I need to see improved fundamentals before adding any more.
This drop is clearly not just the wider market correction as it's a clear continuation of selling volume that started just before the suspension.

@2phevs: I agree with you. I'll be adding more at some stage, though I tend to wait until I see improved fundamentals. @Jolly is a clown - he's just a troll who's trying to wind people up. If he actually gave some genuine reasons, I'd be happy to listren to him, but I've just decided to filter him as he offers zero value. You'll get the idea by loking at his posting history.

Good to somebody buying!

@Pedro: "The shorters will have done extensive research before shorting,so an increase in shorts suggests they are very confident of a big drop from here."

The VW short back in 2008 was one of the biggest the UK has ever seen. Everybody got it wrong. They all got blown up... The rise in BOO could be even bigger as it's just an AIM share...

Likewise. I've traded BOO many times, but am now close to dropping a decent wad into it for a medium-term upswing. Every single trade on BOO has been profitable. I am 99.99% sure the next one will be as well.

There is a huge misconception that shorters are incredibly profitable. The real idiots are the ones who jump in to short a stock just because everybody else is. I think that's the situation with BOO.

A huge number of London hedge funds and private investors were shorting VW back in 2008. Almost everybody was wiped out. Some PI's lost more than a million GBP. Lots of PI's literally ended up bankrupt.

Only an idiot would be shorting BOO at the moment. Their trading career is likely near its end...

I can't see why Arden shareholders would be ecstatic about having their shares swapped for INCE shares, with INCE having halved since April and still dropping steeply. INCE shares are terribly illiquid and could easily be forced back to April 2020 levels if any large shareholder starts to offload.

I'm also going to hold, but am unlikely to add any until the results are released. Revenue looks like it's going to be around £100m, but I'm guessing that they're not going to be profitable overall, due to exceptional items such as the lease. I'm not sure how the market will take that. While I think they're terribly undervalued, I don't discount the possibility of the price returning to the mid 20's.

We're going to have big problems if one of the funds starts to offload. If I was a CEO with an interest in the share price, I'd have first stabilised the business, restored dividends and rebuilt some confidence before embarking on a takeover such as this.

@Pedro: "Not cheap...Still going to go to 150p.."

My primary concerns in situations like this is are:

a) Will they go bust? - I view that as very remote, because they are debt-free...
b) Is Revenue declining? - no
c) Will they make a loss? - no
d) Are they growing - yes
e) Are they a fair price? - yes

I have no interest whatsoever whether or not they'll bounce back to their ATH, nor do I see how that is important. Although, I think they will.

https://todayuknews.com/finance/an-audience-with-tp-icaps-joanna-nader-volatility-and-uncertainty-is-how-we-make-money/

After reading anything from the company, they seem to be in a parallel universe. I would have thought that there's significant pressure for a change of management.

Still can't see any changes by institutional investors.
What's the theory on the selling? volume is very low.

"Merrill Lynch sold their entire holding to BOA."

But Merrill Lynch is just another division of BOA... So they've basically switched the shares into a different division. You'd think they'd just transfer them.

Consensus target price is now >110% above spot.

Slash that in half for a margin of safety still gives 55% upside, which is nice! Jump off early at 20% and it's still a heck of a trade.

@Pedro: "The bulls are clinging on to the very high historical rating"

Not at all. I could not care less.

I'd be worried if they were at a P/E of 40 or so, yes, but not with the current valuation. Add into the mix that they're debt-free makes me very interested at these prices. It's now just a waiting game to scoop up some great shares and ride them up.

@Pedro: "The bulls are getting desperate now."

Not at all. I'm a Boohoo bull with a decent sized position and am happily sitting on the sideline with lots of dry powder to deploy. I'm not a masochist though and don't tend to pour money into something that's falling.

@mcklondon: "You need to understand that whenever ..."

@MckLondon: Do you somehow think that the rest of us are total idiots? That we don't look at RSI and a few other indicators occasionally? Man, do you actually trade or are you just a commentator. I do ~500 trades/year on average. I've been consistently profitable for years. Boo is one of the safest investments that I hold. Any numpty can see that this is in a technical downtrend and will plan accordingly. Fewer than 1 in 1000 people (if that) will nail the exact bottom and that's not even a trading strategy. It's a pipedream.

Question: "What's your ROI/CAGR"
Answer: "It’s irrelevant"

I don't think it's irrelevant!

Boards are full of 'experts' who understand everything about how to calculate an EMA and how to read tea leaves, but have never placed a trade in their lives... as most good traders will tell you. TA on its own will never make you any money. Making money is the only relevant issue.

If you know how the algos works, why not do it yourself? I wonder how effective they are as not many hedge funds report profits that are particularly good.

"I think they will soon regret this."

In the long-term, the way I view this share is that either they'll get funding themselves OR they'll sell the projects/get taken over. The projects themselves are superb. I would prefer that they get taken out as I am not as convinced that they have the expertise to manage the project themselves. Ideally, Rio or other would take over and pay a royalty.

"Do you really think Boo will ever have a single digit pe ratio?"

I doubt it, but anything is possible. I already have a large position here, but have a lot of dry powder and am itching to invest it, once the panic is at its peak. I expect BOO to bounce up fast at some stage. Most of the money is made in the first month after the bounce.