Member Info for CaneToad

Central Banks are very conservative. They don't take random punts on any old AIM stock...

The other big holding they recently made was Royal Mail Group, another rock-solid investment which I also have!

The market cap is tiny compared to the value of the assets. I'm not a big fan of the company and I would prefer to see a buyout or at least a partial divestment, with royalty to Bluejay. I also think this would provide some more credibility to potential lenders.

Looks like a short qsueeze going on with ASOS. Shorters must be starting to twitch here as well; glued to their screens, terrified to leave for even a few minutes ...

Seeing ASOS up 7%, I expect the shorters will be starting to panic and some will have closed their positions. It would not surprise me to see other institutional investors follow Norges Bank, seeing such a conservative company buying BOO alongside Royal Mail (RMG). I remember all the de-rampers on the RMG board as well - in the meantime, that one's already made me a nice wad.

Always remember - 90% of short-term spread-betters/traders LOSE money, so don't EVER listen to them unless you want to join their ranks!

@wyndrum: "Its not about the company, its about the SP."

You've got it wrong....It's all about the company. Quality and Value are far more persistent than Price. Obviously Price is important for an entry, but I tend to very rarely buy total junk, just because it's cheap. I buy high quality, but temporarily cheap items...

You don't need to predict the future to be a profitable trader/investor. That's a common misconception. Some of the best/most profitable traders have win rates as low as 30%.

@dubs: "Must be something we don't know"

I expect that it's just the usual fickle sentiment of private investors. You need to always remember that 90% of short-term traders lose money. Hence, why it's a bad idea to follow people on these boards... Unless you're doing something different to the 90%, then you'll also lose money...

Small-time spread betters/shorters whose investment approach consists of reading tea leaves.

OR

- The stock fundamentals: debt-free, solif revenue/profit growth/new brands/attractive entry price
- Major institutional investors who have made recent purchases: Norway Central Bank, T. Rowe Price
- 24 analysts who give a target price ~120% above the current level?

It's laughable that anybody at all listens to spread betters/shorters on a public bulletin board. I've filtered the main ones already.

@Snip - it's just pure speculation re: the Ex-IM Bank. But I would have thought that a US government bank would not fund a project unless the output added to the US strategic commodity reserves. If the 'Asian Conglomerate' mentioned in the RNS is in fact a Japanese company (e.g. Sumitomo), I think they'd still be interested, but not if it was a Chinese company. That's just my guess.

Am I right in thinking that the potential reason that the offer from the Ex-IM Bank has disappeared is that most, if not all of the Dundas material will go to an Asian (Chinese?) processor? If so, that would make sense. Why would a US Bank fund a project that has signed an agreement to send all of its production to China...

@pipedreamer: "I'll just observe and see who gets it right"

Don't get confused between the people who get if right and the people who make money. Some of the most profitable traders will have win rates of 20-30%. Nobody can consistently get it right, nor is it that even important for trading/investing. Copying people who 'get it right' is a very bad idea and rarely, if ever leads to consistent profits........

@wyndrum: I never use TA on its own. I use 95% fundamentals and 5% TA and only just for the simplest of things like volume, VWAP, RSI, maybe some moving averages and the overall trend. Regarding automatic stop-losses, I rarely ever use them. I review trades and exit only if the story has changed.

For BOO. I think it's rock solid. If it was a US company it would easily be on a P/E of 50+.

I'll also load up on Boohoo once it starts to break out. I'm about 9% underwater atm on ~25k shares.

Completely conflicting with Codelco... always the case with 'experts'. The financial press is basically useless.

As they're the world's largest copper producer, maybe they know what they're talking about compared to a bank analyst?

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/copper

Not sure what to make of it...

I don't see any hurry to buy more here yet. BTC is weak, volume is low and all miners are in a downtrend. Will be attractive at 90p though, if it gets there, maybe later in the week.

@Fevertree: "Good to know that you consider a former investment professional as a 'babbler' - good grief man!"

I spent 20+ years in The City as an investment professional and met lots and lots of babblers....

It's clear this is unloved, but is it worse than in 2009? absolutely not. Their credit rating is BBB- (excellent) and they had no trouble whatsoever raising new finance; they're net cash. Yield is very good. Clearly there's some value destruction going on with the current management and I'd vote to oust them. It's pathetic to see the holdings that these clowns have.

The biggest problem that I see is staff costs. It's a new world, but few of the dinosaurs working there realise it.

It is a bit depress when perhaps the only reward we may get for investing early is a 20% dilution, to fund Dundas. The communication has been quite misleading over that whole episode.

Not too worried about the Boatman article - looks a bit lame, though might have got them a few percent drop from the short sellers who jumped in. 90p looks attractive to me to start adding.

Wow, how quickly things can change...

@HarChris: "Personally don't see it reaching that level without bitcoin falling further but I suppose that's what you're banking on?"

It's more of a risk tradeoff for me. I agree, ARB is probably unlikely to get down below 100p unless maybe BTC falls back to $40k. I'd rather miss a trade and be annoyed than be in a huge trade and be scared shi*less...

@pipedreamer: OK, I understand the sentiment of what you're saying.

I've traded Centrica a few times, but it's not something that I'd buy at the moment, except maybe for a quick swing trade. It's hardly a company that's going to see explosive growth...

BOO is something that I'd hold 6-12m, as I'd be after at least a 50% roi and I'm pretty sure I'll get it. I'm about 10% underwater on my biggest position which does not concern me. The problems that I see with BOO at the moment are not the company, but the technicals, which looks like a short attack. That's not going to last forever and I've planned to buy significantly more at much lower prices if it gets there.