Member Info for CaneToad

Perhaps it's the energy costs that are the problem, but I see this being alleviated by the solar plant in the longer term. Only time will tell.

If I understand the 'ELIX' project correctly, the end result would be vaguely similar to what CAML does - producing copper cathode onsite, rather than shipping concentrate to the smelter. It would further lower the AISC. The SX-EW component of the project is commonly used and low risk (e.g. CAML). Clearly the ELIX process is new, but without trying new things, we'd still be using square wheels. It's a surprise that people are worried about this and selling out.

Unless I'm blind or an idiot (I'm definitely not blind), it was a solid update. I can't spot anything worrying, apart from the minor issue of the attempted coup... but it's seemingly had no impact on the company.

I am impressed by how quickly the turn a drill result into revenue.

This one is a totally manipulated stock; always has been.

@Keith: Totally agree. In my experience with AIM miners, they go overboard in the RNS when it's even remotely positive. Conclusion - lots of mumbo jumbo, but bottom line is - nothing significant was found.

I'm here primarily for Dundas, but JAY is starting to wear me down. The market isn't giving a lot of value to mineral sands miners atm, e.g. Kenmare is only on a 5.4 forward P/E and they have a solid balance sheet, a history of profitability and divis.

@O2B@C: "Somethings do not add up. Oil price going up and up and this sp heading down."

I think it does add up ... It's a solid company, but it's being attacked by BOTS and the market is worried about well declines. They don't pay any divi, because they need the cash pile to replace lost production with new wells - which is probably why RockHopper offloaded the asset in the first place... Brian is a smooth talker, but the market wants to see guidance; not some waffle.

That said, I expect most of the downside is already baked in and I see limited risk of losing capital. If they came out with solid guidance for 2022, I'd expect to see it take off to the moon. I don't think the market currently gives any value to Jamaica, nor do I. Obviously that would change if they found something, but I see that as a black swan event.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-11/putin-s-troops-prepare-to-exit-as-kazakh-leader-blasts-oligarchs

(paid content)

@MWAP: "BL stated their current production was over 2000 back in November in a shareholder call. "

That may be so, but there is not a single RNS which confirms that. The company would not release new information in a phone call; it would be a repeat of RNS info.

What the company *has* confirmed in writing, is that they do *not* give out daily production figures. They only give out average quarterly figures. If the daily production is currently 2k, then they'd have achieved slightly above the 2021 FY guidance and it would be great, but I suspect that is not the case.

I hardly undersood a word of the RNS. Too much gobbledygook without any commercial interpretation.

@K3VMC: "If it isn’t coming down with btc, what is taking it down? + etc."

A deflating bubble. Probably the biggest in history...

You'll see the common pattern in literally hundreds of Nasdaq Composite stocks and quite a few AIM stocks. The timing differs a bit by sector and the local ups/downs differ for each stock, but they all share a common trend. An extreme rise in Feb-May, followed a gradual decline to the current day. I think it's probably a result of the amount of money sloshing around in the financial system + greed.

The 'fundamentals' for any miner are dependent on the value of the underlying commodity. If that commodity drops, the fundamentals have *changed*. If it drops too much, the miner goes out of business. This happens all the time with hard commodity miners (copper/gold/etc.) AIM is littered with them. It's going to eventually happen to some of the bitcoin miners when BTC enters a crypto winter. I think the bitcoin miner model is particularly susceptible to it. The BTC-backed loans will explode as BTC falls, as the borrower needs to post an increasing amount of collateral, which is inversely proportional to price (1/x). I asked ARB about it and let's just say they didn't want to say too much about it...

I don't think it's possible to accurately value ARB or any other miner, unless you take a guess at the future value of BTC. That's the dominant effect. Just like you can't value a gold miner unless you know the future price of gold. That's why I also ignore most of the 'experts' over on the gold mining boards, because the gold miner fundamentals are also secondary to the gold price. The smart gold miners know this and keep piles of cash on the balance sheet so they can survive the inevitable day when gold takes a dive, like it has in the last 6m.

I expect the bitcoin miner data-centers and hardware has limited value on the resale market in the situation where BTC dropped significantly. And the HODL is only as good as the price of BTC. i.e. their entire worth could vanish in a puff of smoke, despite what Saylor tells everybody.

FYI. I'm not looking to be gloomy. Just to understand what's happening here and in lots of other stocks. Personally, I think a lot of these stocks will go a heck of a lot lower. It's impossible to say which ones, so I'm keeping trading sizes small.

It's interesting to see a similarity in bitcoin miners and the Playboy brand (PLBY).

I don't think the price peak for miners (Mar 2021) is anything to do with bitcoin. 'Peak speculation was in March-May last year. It's all been downhill since then, give-or-take. That's why I think all this 'fundamental analysis' that people do on bitcoin and crypto miners is nonsense.

No-doubt, each stock has its own idiosynchrasies, but they're all just 'flies riding on the back of an elephant'.

@Chuz: "Out of interest where have you got your money, financial and energy but any particular stock? Or are you mainly cash.. I've lightened my crypto load and now it needs a new home."

Mate. I have 40+ stocks in a variety of sectors + ~20% cash. I wish I currently just had energy and financials. I'm a wimp and don't tend to have more than a few percent in any single name. I had about 15% in crypto a couple of months back, but started to visit the loo too much and decided to decrease it. My ars* knew what was coming...

I'm mostly a Value investor, but with crypto I just play the whole thing like a commodity. It is what it is. I think the business model of miners is insane, but that doesn't mean it can't be traded!

Chaebol: "When are you selling the lot ? ;)"

I don't hold anything in Saylor's company... I don't like the guy. I don't like how the management liquidated their shares in the lead-up to their big crash.

I'm not planning on selling ARB or any other miner or crypto. My current positions are only very small relative to my account and they can be repaired once the dust has settled.

Oh, here's today's post: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYkl-Zoj7FY

In case you don't know of Kristjan Qullamaggie.

He started with $2.5k. After blowing his account a couple of times, he now has a 9-figure account (i.e. $100m):

As he says, the only thing that's working right now is Energy and Financials.

I found his comments on Microstrategy (MSTR. Saylor's company) @t=26s interesting.

'Yeah, it's leveraged as hell. So if bitcoin goes down another 25% from here, MSTR will go to zero. That's a good busines model'. Take a look at the MSTR chart. It's qualitatively identical to ARB. It nicely shows how the current ARB share price (and all miners) is more-or-less due to speculation. They're all just a call option on BTC and the price is entirely supported by speculation on BTC.

FYI. I'm long ARB, RIOT, DGHI, BTC, ETH, SOL in small positions.

@Herdie: "so why the mother of Jesus are company’s like Bitfarms buying Btc"

I have no fu*king idea why. They're no doubt, much smarter than me.

Trading/HODL'ing BTC is their principal business. It's not mine. I trade a large variety of assets and attempt to make money of all of them, without taking too much risk in any single one. They're going to pickup huge bonuses no matter what happens, while I won't.

@K3VMC. Do you appreciate that Nasdaq took 15y to recover after the DotCom crash? It didn't bounce back after just a few weeks... If Nasdaq corrects again, miners are highly likely to take a very big tumble. Returns back to values from 1y ago are possible.

@K3VMC: "Stuff goes up and down? Seems to be the case."

It's been dropping consistently since 8 Nov. You don't need to be a chartist to see that. It's blindingly obvious. That's why I trimmed by crypto holdings and took profits months back.

It's following Nasdaq down, because BTC is now highly correlated with the equity markets. That happened once Wall Street got into crypto. They're now dumping it like tech stocks. The money has moved, massively into financials and energy. Financials are seeing huge inflows.

If nasdaq corrects significantly, BTC could have a very long way to drop yet.

I think the biggest problem here is the market cycle.
Most UK small/mid-caps lost their momentum in June last year and it's yet to return.