Member Info for CaneToad

There's a feedback loop operating here. The lower the ARB share price, the more shares needing to be issued in a raise (if there is one). Bottom line: Doing a raise at the current level will require significantly more new shares to be issued than back in mid November when we were at 150p. Because that worries some investors, they hold back, causing fewer buyers, causing the price to drop lower, causing even more shares needing to be issued in a raise...

Exactly the same thing has happened to Digihost.

@Maxage: "My highest purchase is 211 my lowest is 150, id be happy to take a 10% loss on this one to just get out."

Sounds like you have a brilliant strategy: rubbish the stock and try to get the price to fall so you lose even more - pure genius!

@AimMaster: "cosidering a short position to back my points"

Good luck! That's a gutsy thing to do on CPI - one of the most volatile stocks on LSE........ Personally, I don't see a good risk/reward on that trade. Max gain is about 10% (i.e. another 10% drop), while downside is unlimited. Let us know how it goes!

(correction: Sasa will be fully paid in August next year)

So - we're now at roughly the same price as we were in 2017, when we purchased Sasa for $402.5m, except that we've now fully paid for it and profits are at a record!

Without significant news, this will drift down to 4-5p within the next 3m, but I expect news about Dundas funding before that and hopefully the start of a sustained rise. It's impossible to say how low it's going before then.

I recall mentioning that 8p was the next target, a few months back and received angry comments. Some saying 'They won't let it go down that low...". FYI: there is no 'they'.

@Pops: "Recently the Yanks appear to delight in urinating on bitcoin advances"

Could it just be that Nasdaq is losing steam? It's only been held up by a handful of names lately. A lot of the smaller tech stocks are moving closer to correction territory. Nasdaq looks weak today; risk-off. That's going to feed into BTC and miners soon.

I had to fight the urge of wanting to inflate my ARB position this morning. I'm glad I resisted the temptation. I doubt this fall is over.

@GingerHippo: "The guidance did indeed point to lower production. However, the company has since tweeted that we are back to 2000 boepd. So I think the company has sorted the issue we were having a couple of months ago and are back on track."

If there is any *proof* that they have indeed reverted back to 2000 boepd, a lot of investors would increase their holdings in UOG. I don't see any proof of it. Guidance of 2100-2300 and the existing figures for H1 and Q3 indicate daily production of 900-1700 boepd for Q4. I've not seen any RNS changing that.

Nothing new will is announced on twitter.

@AimMaster: "Some took my advice on board and minimised their losses at 42p ."

Those were your words?
Sounds like advice to me - you used the word ADVICE !!!

@AimMaster: "Some took my advice on board and minimised their losses at 42p ."

Best not to give any advice on these boards. It's illegal, unless you're a financial advisor...People *DO* occasionally get grumpy and chase people on these boards after they lose money.

I just post facts. If people think that's 'ramping' - then so be it.

I'll say it one more time, in case anybody missed it.

Capita is a bit of a dog. It's not Tesla. It's not Apple. It's a shonky share on a forward P/E of 4.7. It's a cheap share on which you try and achieve a large return. The road will be rough. Unless somebody is used to trading shares like this, it's probably just going to cause lots of pain and upset... It's not a share I'd buy in my kid's ISA! It's a share that I aggressively trade - sometimes for just a few percent. Long-term (6-12m), I think it's going to be OK. I might be 100% wrong, so do your own research.

@salmon: It surprises me that the company is looking at M&A, when it has a fully drawn down RCF, is making a marginal profit and has a severely impacted valuation. I expect they're only paying a divi to try and gain the confidence of the market, but that looks foolish when money is this tight.

@notaflipper: "What tosh reading some of these posts here by the same old rampers saying that they always make money on this share. "

I'm guessing that might be aimed at me.

I'm a position/swing trader; mostly into deep value/unsexy/forgotten/distressed stocks. I've traded fulltime for a living for the past two years after working in the City for 20+ years. I only cut positions when I think there's a significant risk that I'll not see my capital back. It's quite rare in terms of the number of trades, but is about 10% of my profits. I'm relatively confident of the statistics, having completed more than 1,000 round-trips.

I've traded CPI a total of 23 times with the first position in early 2020. All of those trades have been profitable. On one occasion, I had to sit on a loss for 160 days, which was from: March - August 2021, when CPI trended down for a very long time. Maybe it would have been better to cut the loss that time, due to the opportunity-cost.

I currently hold 92,001 CPI shares and am down ~29%.

I don't average-down until I see a confirmation of improved fundamentals and a breakout on significant volume. At that time, I tend to double- or triple the position size. I'm able to do that, because I mostly keep my initial position size quite modest.

Warning. This style of trading is against most of the conventional wisdom to cut your losses early and let your winners run. It's more suited to a long-term/investment viewpoint and is only suitable for stocks where you're confident that it won't go bankrupt. You'd probably make more money by keeping losses tiny and profits large, but in the UK small/mid-cap market that requires exceptional chart reading skills, which I don't have...

There is some discussion of the pros/cons of the different approaches in 'the Art of Execution' by Lee Freeman-Shor.

Good luck.

AimMaster: To be fair, I don't think NoFear is ramping the stock.

And if you look back at my history, I doubt you'll find any ramping. I just state facts that I've researched and my own opinions.

I was disappointed by the recent drop, but it's nothing new and I'm not concerned that I'll lose any money. I think CPI is great value at the current price and I'm planning to buy more. Others might not agree with me which is fine. I might be 100% wrong! In trading/investing, you don't have to be consistently right to make money. Some of the best traders that I know are right about 30-40% of the time.

@AimMaster: Thanks for your opinion. Are you short CPI? If so, what's your strategy? You sounds grumpy about CPI! Personally, I think it's a dog of a share, but I don't mind dogs!

FYI: I'm interested in hearing about both short- and long positions.

I'll say upfront. I'm long CPI and have a sizable position. I'll increase at some stage. Opinions here have almost ZERO impact on the share price. Surely people realise that? 99% of the traders (both short- and long) do not post on this board.

I don't expect CPI to be debt-free by end of 2022. If the market believed they'd be debt-free by end of 2022, I don't think the price would currently be what it is. I expect that their gearing will be quite low though.

Nobody in their right mind is investing in CPI under the illusion that they're an uber sexy company. I look at the financial health of the company now, along with the share price and compare that to 2y ago and I believe there's more upside now then there was then. It's that simple. There's also extreme volatility, which gives an opportunity for trading. If you don't like explosive volatility - you're in the wrong stock...

To be honest, I don't see much ramping here, except for when it spiked 10% a few weeks back. FYI: I don't mind hearing good and bad facts about CPI. I also don't mind hearing about short positions. I'm not a big fan of peramanently negative- or positive people or lies...

They'll either start winning contracts themselves or they'll become a buyout target for private equity.

Just a £14m market cap, while the US alone has allocated $10b to PFAS cleanup/water standards. It's a no-brainer for a large water company or private equity firm. Obviously it could take some time, but momentum seems to be building in the industry.

I've been using HL as a platorm or years - although it's degenerating into something close to useless.
But I never, ever, ever read their research notes anymore.
Like most analysts, the change their story to follow the price action they see and what everyone else is saying.
Worthless junk.

FYI: I have referred Investor Relations to that Robeco article. I also did the reverse, letting Robeo know about the PFAS technology opportunity at Mycelx...

ADV = 1,800 shares/day (calculated from the first 3w of trading).
That amounts to ~$5k CAD per day, i.e. just £2,800/day...

I'm still deciding whether or not to invest in MNTO, but having it only on the Venture Exchange means that it's quite difficult. Hopefully more punters will arrive once they start producing stellar revenue.

In my opinion, there will be funding within 6m. Perhaps 3m. The IB they've appointed isn't going to sit still and that will improve the sentiment. For that reason, I'll be hanging on. Until that news, the share price will potentially drift lower, with everything else.