Member Info for CaneToad

It's not just BTC or ARB. It's most of NASDAQ/growth stocks. Most of the miners have fallen hard today. It took more than 10y for nasdaq to recover when it crashed in 2000, so I'm of the opinion that it has a long way to go down yet. There could be some attractive bargains.

From what I see, no UK diamond miners are doing well.
I don't know why. Diamond prices are strong. Maybe it's a structural issue.
Energy and Financials are doing well in UK/US.

@MrCarats: Are you able to name a UK diamond miner that's done well lately?

e.g. How is Gem Diamonds going?

I expect this will be repeated in lots of countries this year; maybe in the UK and Europe, once people realise what the new gas/fuel prices are.

Dustman, UOG rose to 6p in March, but then lost 2/3 of its value throughout the year. Few other oilers did that. e.g. I3E - did the exact opposite during that time. Do you think it's related to the water cut issue? There is no way that you're going to influence the UOG share price in any way whatsoever by moderating discussions on this board. The only thing that's going to lead to is pops-and-drops of the share price.

I'll continue discussing the water cut issue and 2022/Q1 guidance as- and when I like, as I have a position in UOG and it's the most important determinant of the share price over the past year.

Good luck.

Good news about the crypto progress. God, I hope that the results are positive so it doesn't retrace...

Funny how I don't hear any of this pathetic cr*p from ATYM or CAML. While they pay me a solid divi and deliver what they promise, instead of this endless 'Dog ate my homework' story from RMM.

Dividend + Q1 guidance, showing the water cut issue is under control and it would fly.

I'd add significant money here if both those happened. Until then, it's going to be a nano holding for me. Market does not currently believe that Q4 was anywhere like 2000 boepd or else it would be 3x current price already, no matter what people claim they've heard people say 'verbally'. Great news about the new well, but let's see what Q1 or H1 guidance is first.

@Teamlh: "Obviously you don't understand brokers and there motives of talking stock up,tell me has rmg been a quality stock this past 7years when it's price has been bouncing all over the place"

Over the past 7y RMG has been a total dog. But I didn't invest 7 years ago. I invested 2-months ago and it's been great... And there's a nice divi coming next week! Nice. I will probably sell out after another 10-15% rise.

In regard to brokers, I know precisely how they work, having worked in that industry for 20+ years. You can generally disregard a single broker, but the average of 15 is a useful indicator, when used in combination with the rest of the fundamentals/technicals.

@Teamlh: With all due respect, I have no interest in posties. I'm an investor. I also have no particular interest in pilots when I invest in IAG, or bus drivers when I invest in a transport company. Good on them for doing a good job, but that's not my interest. I look at balance sheets, broker forecasts (yes, they are heavily skewed) and the technical behavior of a share. If you're primarily interested in the life of a postie, then you're in the wrong place... This is a board for the RMG share price. FYI: I am diversified over 50+ shares, but thanks for your concern!

The info that I've posted are facts. In the long-term, I've found facts to be a reasonable indicator of long-term share price behaviour. Good luck!

@Pedro: "Full year accounts will include businesses they would have liked to sell such as Trustmarque, offers must be really low."

Let's stick to facts. They've almost hit the £700m target... If you've ever owned a business or worked in the banking industry, you'd know that it can take several years to sell businesses. There's nothing whatsoever to say here; nothing unusual.

I see that his post focusses on the EV metals and lithium. Maybe that's a better angle for me. On Amapa alone, I wouldn't invest. There are just too many questions and complexities here.

@DormanLongNY: "Like many commodities, iron ore prices will fluctuate up and down, but iron ore mining will always make money if you have a good quality ore and efficient operations."

The immediate problem that I see is that it's *not* currently a highly efficient operation and would require a large investment to make it even remotely close to what Vale, BHP, Rio can achieve. And the Iron ore price dynamics are not attractive atm.

@EV_Bull: Thanks for the info.

It looks interesting, but there are lots of moving parts and assumptions here. e.g. while the original valuation was $1.5b, the old Reuters article says there are opinions on it being lower than $400m, which would put the 27% share worth just £80m, which is ~2x the market cap. Then there's the cost of refurbishing the mine, port and railway, which is going to take 2 years...and a lot of money, most probably diluting shareholders. And the share price will drift down significantly in that time, because AIM investors have the patience of a fruitfly...

I'll continue investigating, but this looks highly speculative to my eye.

I'm only starting toi study this company, so my knowledge is sketchy...

I see that they're only currently allowed to export a limited amount of the iron Ore from Amapa, so that a maximum of $10m is realised by DEV (their joint venture in Brazil?). My next question is what happens after that?

Has Amapa been purchased out of bankruptcy?

The next thing that I see is that it might not be currently economical to ship out of their port. They're shipping third parties goods instead?

@EV_Bull: "Just to add Pippi, iron ore miners have made record profits this year in the billions and will be looking for acquisitions buying us out at £1/share would be pocket change for one of the bigger players."

For BHP, RIO, FORTESCUE, I would have thought that they already have endless opportunities close to their own infrastructure. For VALE, I'm extremely suspicious (but prepared to be surprised) that they aren't interested in Amapa.

@EV_Bull: "Just to add Pippi, iron ore miners have made record profits this year in the billions and will be looking for acquisitions buying us out at £1/share would be pocket change for one of the bigger players."

The Iron Ore price halved in 2021, which is why none of the major Iron Ore producers are highly priced... What's the basis for the £1 share price speculation?

I'd need to understand the cost of getting the railway, port, tailings dam back to safe operational standards, before thinking about how much our share in Amapa might be worth.

Given the location of Amapa, why isn't Vale interested? That has me very suspicious.

Can anybody enlighten me how KDNC are acquiring 27% of Amapa, for which 100% was originally valued at $600m in 2012 by Anglo American, for just $6m ?

Clearly there are reasons for this...

This looks like a potentially attractive investment opportunity, but from what I see, Iron Ore producers are not (currently) appreciated by the market. In particular, none of the main producers (Rio, BHP, Vale, Fortescue) are currently appreciated by the market, even though they're all hugely profitable, dirt cheap and are paying monster divis.

So yes, Amapa had a significant valuation, but if it's so good, why isn't one of the big iron ore miners interested?

I see they also have some Sonora Lithium interests, which I'm also starting to investigate, having been a previous investor in Bacanora...

@Teamlh: "r we talking about the same rmg, rmg must pay great sick pay ,that everyone can take off at the same time and no delivery's done,"

I think I've already worked out your motivations here: either you're a disgruntled postie that got sacked by RMG OR you've lost a fortune on RMG by getting your timing wrong OR you're a small-time shorter.

If you're a shorter, please tell us your strategy/edge. I would have thought that RMG is too boring a stock to short. I can't see any major institutiosn shorting this stock - maybe you're on your own here... Good luck!!!!!!

@Teamlh: "And your point is ? That u r getting confused between a lucky share and a quality share !"

I gave you the facts, but you didn't comment... Do you use anything apart from 'gut feel' in your investing? i.e. an independent analysis of the balance sheet, technicals, etc. ?

Compared to the universe of all UK stocks, RMG is Quality is 95 in Stocko. That roughly means it's in the top 5% of all UK stocks in terms of 'quality'. So you are basically talking out of your ar se re your comment on quality.

Do you have anything useful to offer in reply, apart fdrom your usual nonsense?

I don't mind hearing negative comments about a stock - IF THEY ARE FACTUAL. I hate reading comments from total idiots. Do you have anything useful to add?