Member Info for CaneToad

On price, INCE is ridiculously cheap. The revenue has risen nicely as well. They need to rebuild confidence though. The share price history is abysmal. I'm happy to be proven wrong, but I'm not yet convinced this Arden adventure is the right thing at this time.

Yeah, I found the wording quite strange. No mention of reduced guidance in the last RNS... then bam!
I can't help but think that somebody is laughing their head off. That's just me though - a bit paranoid.

Apologies: I should have said: "midpoint of 2022/H1 guidance is a 13.5% reduction on 2021/H2"

Do your own research.

Sounds OK, but it looks like the midpoint of H1 guidance is a 13.5% reduction on 2021/H1. Hopefully this will reverse as time progresses and that it's offset by higher iodine prices.

@Thirdtimelucky: "So far the hike in prices had done nothing for this or many other oil companies?"

Some that have moved significantly over the past 3m:

UK: BP, GKP, I3E
US: Most
CA: Most. Some are multi-baggers in the past year.

UOG is ridiculously cheap, but they need to prove that they can sustain the declines. It looks like two steps forwards and one back at the moment. On the face of it, this looks like an incredible opportunity, but I want to firstly see 2022 guidance.

@HarChris: "Agreed although looking at arbk finishing at 80p with BTC @$43k I've concluded that it's better to buy BTC directly over Argo currently."

I'd agree with you - if only for the tax problem. For me, all of my miner trades/investments are within an ISA/SIPP, which means no capital gains tax. The BTC trades can suffer up to ~50% CGT. So you need to make twice as much in the BTC trades to make it better. For that reason, miners are preferable for me.

My gut feeling is that Kazakhstan will want to continue to attract foreign investment and they're not going to be winding back the clock to the Soviet Union. Another good sign is that Steppe Cement (STCM) had a nice rise yesterday of 7.5%, showing that the market is not running away yet. All of my copper miners fell yesterday:

Antofagasta: -3.9%
Atalaya: -1.67%
Capstone: -2.58%
Central Asia Metals: -3.4%
Lundin: -1.29%
Rambler: -2.72%

Higher taxes are already on the cards for the South American producers and Koonrad is a very low cost mine, so I think there's a margin of safety for continuing profitability.

If I remember correctly, they're aiming to be debt-free by August. If copper stays at elevated prices, I wonder if they could be close to debt-free by the FY results in March.

Also, I cannot think of any trouble-free copper miners. Peru/Chile miners have tax problems. Atalaya has energy price problems, while Rambler is still in its infancy.

Disclaimer: I'm long CAML, ATYM, RMM, LUN, STCM and I'm therefore biased. Do your own research.

My guesstimate of 2022/Q1 guidance is 1,058 - 1,939 boepd.

If Brian's verbal comment of 2,000 boepd is correct, then my guesstimate becomes: 2,158-2,239. It could be even higher than this if further well workovers have been done, but I prefer to work off published figures rather than guessing.

I increased my investment after hearing about the AJ13 progress and considering the director purchases @2.95p. I would be hoping to increase it again, depending on the news.

=================================================================
2021/Q4 - implied range: 900-1700 boepd from H1 (2,730), Q3 (2,050) and FY (2,100-2,300):

Low: (2,730+2,730+2,050+900)/4=2,103
High: (2,730+2,730+2,050+1700)/4=2,303

AJ13 (net to UOG): 158-239

2021/Q1:

Low: 900+158=1,058
High: 1,700+239=1,939
=================================================================

My estimate could be 100% wrong. I welcome a better estimate.

Do your own research - I'm biased and am long UOG.

It's very sobering to look at the long-term performance:

2,500p in 2008
500p in 2011
38p in 2022

It's not unreasonable to wonder if there should be a change of management.

@Ezzy: I've traded BOO a dozen times over the past 12 months. All profitable.
I currently have a sizable long BOO position and I'm 99% confident that will also be profitable. It's just tucked away and I don't bother to look at it much.
The vast majority of short-sellers lose their money and often their shirt as well.
Did you short VW back in 2008? Do you know what happened? There are lots of small London short-sellers who lost their houses and ended up bankrupt, trying to short VW. I expect a similar thing will eventually happen to BOO.
Good luck!

The algo typically does lots of order spoofing (fake orders). It's the exchange itself which has added these functions in the Direct Market Access API in order to generate more fees. You'll be able to work out how they do it by reading Flash Crash and watching the video by Haim Bodek.

@Mike. The problem is that shorting is allowed, so as long as they declare the short, I'm not sure there's anything that can be done. My expectation though is that they run an algo continually and they sell/buy-back regularly rather than holding onto anything for a long time. That's how they engineer such a large drop with such a tiny short position. You'd have to ask a lawyer to know whether or not that type of algo is legal or not.

Another possibility is that Marshall Wace intend to drive this down to oblivion. They did a pretty good job on Boohoo and Asos, achieving a 50+% drop. The problem is that once the small guys see them on the case, the all join the party; you tend to spot them on the boards... It does make you wonder what the markets would be like without these vultures.

My guess is that Marshall Wace needs to close the short, so they need a low price at which to buy back the shares.

This has been a dog for me in the past, but it's looking like it might be time to re-enter, given the momentum and improved fundamentals: EPS seems to have jumped.

Divi looks nice. Could this be the year for Value?

Yeah, I just noticed the comment on exports. A bit confusing to my mind as I can't see why it's relevant. In the end, I don't care who they sell the cement to as long as it's all sold...

@Balanced. Steppe Cement is a very quiet board. It's a ghost-town, because it's a stable dividend share. Nobody expected guidance at this stage. They've reported rising revenue/profit for the past 5+ years and nothing exciting ever happens to that share. It's just a boring company that pays an increasing dividend. They are a domestic producer and your comment on exports have not had any impact whatsoever on revenue/profit; it's just a statement of fact. Furthermore, if you understood that share, you would realise that at this time of year (winter) they don't **ever** produce much cement. It's because it's too cold. That is normal and expected. Quite simply, you don't know what you're talking about.

FYI. I am positive about UOG, or else I wouldn't have been the biggest buyer today. Clearly you have not purchased or your purchases are tiny. I like to discuss facts and the fact is that there was a serious water cut issue last year and the published figures suggest a large reduction in daily production in Q4, which would imply a lower guidance for 2022/Q1. That is probably why the share price dropped 66% throughout the year.

You are a ramper and I have filtered you.

@jono: I completely agree. I suspect the water issue has not been resolved, but it has probably stabilised. My guess is that this is a feature of that field. It doesn't worry me too much as I think the market has now factored that in (the share price falling by 2/3...) and they have sufficient cash to drill more wells. I also liked the fact that managemnet have purchased @ 2.95.

If the guidance is better than the figures suggest, then that's great and we'll make loads of money. If not, I'll re-evaluate, but probably hold anyway, as this is ridiculously cheap.

Even at this time, my own small topup is the biggest buy of the day. That's a bit concerning...

@Balanced; you have no idea what you're talking about.

Guidance has not been provided by UOG. It is a fact, that the volume here is poor. I was the biggest buyer and my purchase was small. Clearly you are not buying...

Atalaya Mining is a totally different company to UOG. ATYM is net cash, paid a 7% divi and has tripled in value in about a year. They just recorded record revenue/profit. It's a share that hardly moves, because it's mostly held by funds and long-term investors. Like every company on the planet, they've reported rising energy costs, but they've already constructed a solar plant to provide their own power, so, given that most of us are heavily in profit, I don't see a few percent decline to be a big issue...

Steppe Cement also produced record figures. Yes, it's in Kazakstan; oh well, but I hold it as a dividend cow. You have no idea what you are talking about, so I 'm going to ignore you.

All I am stating is facts. There is no guidance for 2022. If you were able to calculate an average, you'd have seen the drop yourself, but you're clearly just a ramper rather than an investor.

@jono44: "Doesn't seem right that they haven't just given Q4 20221 production update in this rns."

A few people have mentioned this already, but most don't want to believe it and the response has been to attack the messengers. You can easily work out the implied Q4 production for yourself from the other published results.

Based on the implied Q4 production, I expect 2022 guidance to be significantly lower than 2021, but let's see. Maybe they can massage the figures a bit, now that they have a new well. That explains the 66% sp decline from Mar-Dec 2021 and why this seems so ridiculously cheap. This could explain why they can't pay a divi, even though they'll soon have piles of cash from the divestments.

All up, I see the drop in production as already baked into the price, so I've added more today (£1k + £3k), though I intend to keep my position small until guidance is released. It's a bit disconcerting when my tiny buys are the biggest of the day so far...