Member Info for CaneToad

@dankatie: "if a company goes bust, most, if not all of the equity value is wiped out."

I (currently) see bankruptcy as an unlikely scenario for Capita.

The balance sheet has improved significantly over the past 3y and I expect they could borrow some more money if that was needed. But unless everything thay're saying is a lie, I can't see why that would be needed. According to the management, they will be close to debt-free by the end of 2022. I don't know how true that statement is, but they can't make a statement like that unless it resembles the truth or else fraud charges could be brought against the directors. Everything that I've heard matches what I see in the balance sheet (I use Stockopedia, where CPI is classified as a 'Turnaround', with improving fundamentals. Quality=38, Value=95, Momentum=61, StockRank=73. Those numbers would typically be *much* worse for a company near bankruptcy.

I agree that CPI has been a dog and one of the few shares not to have seen any meaningful recovery during the 2y of covid. I'm down about 30% on ~100k shares. I have no plans of selling unless I see a significant deterioration in the fundamentals.

Good luck. Do your own research. I'm biased and could be 100% wrong in everything that I say.

Bloomberg: "At least one cargo of Australian coal for February loading changed hands at $300 a metric ton on Friday, according to traders who saw the transactions on the globalCOAL platform. That’s one of the most expensive cargoes ever transacted, the traders said, and could push spot price indexes above last October’s record high."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-21/coal-soars-to-300-a-ton-as-asia-scrambles-for-power-plant-fuel

Good news for APF.

If guidance is good, I'm going to load up the track on this one.

@tuvok: "From 9% up to down on more buys than sells???"

Yeah, it's been two amazing trading days in a row to sell and rebuy.

Looks like the beast has finally woken.

Hey, I just came across this stock and it looked interesting.

I'm wondering why the net profits looks so modest? Do they supply on a fixed-price contract? e.g. do they have any exposure to the oil price?

I'm quite new here, only investing in the past week, but the ONE thing that I've read multiple times is that they don't (currently) need any new money:

RNS (20 Dec 2021): "If Kistos becomes the preferred bidder in the process currently being run by Total, it is expected that any acquisition would be funded using the Company's existing resources."

I'm quite new here, only investing in the past week, but the ONE

It's disappointing to say the least, but as a comparison, I still think the company is in the best shape it's ever been in. Revenue, Operating Profit and Net Profit have all been trending up consistently for the past 5y, while debt has been reducign for the past 4y. Iodine prices have increased significantly, while guidance is not down that significantly. My guess is they'll be flat or up on last year. H2 might also be better.

I'm planning on adding some more if it dips below a certain level.

Most US/UK/CA oil stocks are now heavily overbought - a few days of consolidation (profit taking) is expected. It can't keep going up in a staight line.

I spoke to Investor Relations about ELIX.

- It would allow extraction of all of the metals from the concentrate (copper, lead, zinc); they only currently get paid for the copper; i.e. ELIX will result in new revenue from the lead and zinc.

- The smelter currently penalizes them for the presence of deleterious elements in the concentrate (antimony, etc) . ELIX will eliminate this penalty as there will be no smelting.

- ELIX has been proven to work over the past couple of years and has produced enough copper for them to be confident that it works. They're now building the first stage of an industrial-scale facility. Once that has been validated, they can easily extend the facility with more tanks, etc. The end goal would be to process all of the concentrate onsite, completely removing any trucking of the ore to the port or shipping to a smelter.

- The process is done within large tanks. It has limited, if any of the environmental problems of Solvent Extraction and Electrowinnning (SX-EW). e.g. It doesn't involve any leaching of metal from an acid solution as used at CAML's Kounrad facility. My understanding is that there is no new environmental permit required. Indeed, it would dramatically reduce the environmental impact of the mine as the end product would be shipped from the site. Trucking/shipping/smelter of concentrate would be eliminated.

This sounds very exciting to me. It's a proven process that they're now implementing on an industrial scale, but with a phased approach to limit the risk.

Regarding the electricity issue. That's an issue for everyone in 2022. The solar plant will be ready in 2023 and will eliminate 25% of the external power usage.

This is just my *interpretation* of what I was told by Carina Corbett (Investor Relations) who was extremely helpful and knowledgable about the process. I could be wrong. Please do your own research.

I don't see anything strange going on. Most oilers are now overextended after a mega run. I expect a few days of consolidation. GKP was a few days behind most of the others and could (in principle) run a few more days - but perhaps they'll all pullback together. The strength has also disappeared in the US/CA oilers. Textbook consolidation after profit taking.

@Herdie: "Being big into Oilers what’s your thoughts on Savannah, I’ve built up a fairly decent position there now and would be grateful for your views ?"

I'm reluctant to give an opinion on this one ... and my opinion is irrelevant as it's been rising nicely since June last year... Obviously it's now overbought and could pullback a bit, but I'm only guessing, as I don't know how it moves. Clearly you've done well if you got in a while ago. I mainly trade off fundamentals and the Stocko data on this one looks a bit useless, so I'd need to look at RNS's, Results etc. to have any idea.

Good luck!

@flowerpot.

You'll need to do your own research, but here are some of the oilers and tobacco stocks that I've been trading recently:

Kistos (UK)
Birchcliff Energy (Canadian)
BP (UK)
Chevron (US)
EOG Resources (US)
Exxon Mobil (US)
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (UK) - nice!
i3 Energy (UK)
Serica Energy (UK)
Tourmaline Oil (Canadian)
Imperial Brands (UK)

Most of the oilers are now overbought on RSI and will probably start to pullback before the next leg up. Warning: these are very boring Value Stocks. There's nothing sexy about them. Hopefully crypto will wake up in the next month.

I think I recall that Meyer owns some shares in JAY and some of the others that he covers. He's incredibly knowledgable, but at the end of the day, he's a broker and gets paid to say positive things about the companies that SP Angels works with... Just like the 'Independent' research article written recently. It's a decent article, but is *not* independent - it's a paid report.

FYI. I contacted one of the Mining Royalty companies to see if they'd looked at JAY and they weren't interested. They thought the develolpment timescale was too far off in the future. It 'didn't suit their investment profile' - that concerned me.

JAY needs to get its act together. JAY is now being listed as a 'Sucker Stock' in Stockopedia. They need to pull the finger out. NOW or the share price will continue to fall. There is no lower limit to which it could fall. It all depends on whether or not they can get Dundas funding on decent terms, without diluting shareholders too much.

@K3VMC: I remember mentioning MS on one occasion, to which you quickly asked "Do you know more about bitcoin than Michael Saylor"... I recall saying - definitely not...

Clearly you had not done any due-diligence before putting him up as a poster boy .... I also warned you about Pembridge Resources many months back and what has happened? - PRECISELY what I said would happen - it has flat-lined, without any discernible heartbeat.

BTC and hence ARB will no-doubt bounce back at *some* point (hopefully soon).

FYI: OIL and TOBACCO are moving bigtime, you need to check them out... it's like shooting fish in a barrel.

Disclaimer: I'm long ARB. I wish I wasn't at the moment - but I am!

Performance Bonus:

2,500p in 2008
500p in 2011
38p in 2022

Time to pour more money into these under-appreciated sectors: Oil, Tobacco, Gambling.

IMB is a screaming bargain compared to the US tobacco companies and with better divis. I expect this will equalise over the coming year. Nice! 8% divi + 50+% potential capital appreciation. 100% to catch up to the Yanks.

NICE!

Looks like a textbook pullback to me; used it as an opportunity to add triple my holding from a tiny base starting on 10 Jan. Almost all spikes tend to flatten...

Looks like volume has increased at last.

MrCarats - this might be your time to get out - surely you're in profit now?