Member Info for CaneToad

@rift:

- The market needs to understand more about the water cut issue.
- It's not good enough to be verbally told misleading production figures of 2,000. He must clarify that.

JG68: this share is regularly in the top-20 most shorted UK shares. They play games with it, kicking it around. Running algos on it, etc. I'm stuck here like you and others.

In the current market conditions, they'll need to declare a divi in order to get any market interest. It's not a loved share.

rift. The range was wide, because the implied Q4 number was very sensitive to FY. It's very simple. Numbers don't lie. If FY was 2100, Q4 was ~900. If FY was 2300, Q4 was ~1700.

The market rightly assumed the conservative case of 900, which is 1/3 of H1 and hence the share price dropped 2/3. Like clockwork.

=================================================================
(taken from 15 Jan 2022)
=================================================================
2021/Q4 - implied range: 900-1700 boepd from H1 (2,730), Q3 (2,050) and FY (2,100-2,300):

Low: (2,730+2,730+2,050+900)/4=2,103
High: (2,730+2,730+2,050+1700)/4=2,303

AJ13 (net to UOG): 158-239

2021/Q1:

Low: 900+158=1,058
High: 1,700+239=1,939
=================================================================

Any active traders will have noticed, that this share has some very dubious operators; same old tricks from the bucket-shop days, quickly pulling orders. Funny to watch them. Same old spoofing tricks as described in Flash Crash.

On 15 Jan 2022, I gave my estimate of 2022/Q1 guidance as 1,058 - 1,939 boepd.

Actual H1 production guidance is 1,500-1,650 boepd.

I'm just stating the facts that I stated weeks ago, which were taken badly by some people.

The value of a company is the discounted sum of future cashflows to shareholders. If those cashflows are zero or uncertain, that reflects in the share price. It's that simple. I'm not a basher. I'll give credit where it's due. After stating the implied production level for 2021/Q4 and my estimate of 2022/Q2, I was told about Brian's claim in the video - I listened to it carefully myself and I also very clearly heard him say they were producing 2000 boepd. On that basis, I decided to add a mid-sized holding here and I have been duped like everybody else. I'll hold, but I'm not happy with being misled by management.

@gaf11: "It looks like yet another oil company full of lies and whilst the price of oil is flying we are not. "

You might want to take a look I3E. It's similarly cheap as UOG, but they have a huge number of small wells in Canada and hence have a stable production (~19k boepd); they also have a wildcat in the North Sea and they're committed to a divi of about 8% at the current share price. Furthermore, the CFO has almost his entire net worth in the company and they seem to be very straight.

I'm biased and am long I3E. I could be 100% wrong. Do your own research.

I'm not worried about the cash balance; that should fix itself soon with the divestments. The question is whether or not there will be any cash flowing to shareholders - and that looks unlikely in the short-medium-term. Without cashflow to shareholders, the value will always be low as the only people being rewarded are the management. This will stay a trading share for me, not an investment.

"Baseline from current wells shows a gradual decline which is what we are seeing"

Last year was NOT a gradual decline. Dropping from 2700 to the current level, even after new well, is not gradual.

Anyway, this looks solid to me and I added £23k worth just after the opening bell. I'd have added more if not for this being a weak day on the markets generally.

"The issue for me is BL said clearly in Nov 2000 BOPD. "

I directly asked him about that and I got NO reply. He had replied to my earlier questions. That made me feel uncomfortable.

Re: the verbal remark about 2000 boepd; I can only assume that it was a 'verbal slipup'. I'd be pretty annoyed if I had relied on that figure. That's why it's good to ignore verbal remarks and only take what's in an RNS.

rift: yes, I do remember seeing yours. I initially gave only a midpoint figure. I then updated my sheet to a range.

I completely agree, this is a nice opportunity and there are no cash issues. I didn't appreciate the significance of the 2P reserves update, which is positive. The problem here is that it's always going to be difficult to forecast future production, when declines can be so large. Contrast this to a company like I3E, which has literally thousands of wells, so production is very stable, even if some wells go dry.

As I said here before, if the daily prod. was already above 2000, the market price would not have slipped back 2/3 from its peak. I think the current price is ridiculous, but the market response, when production steeply dropped from 2700 was not completly irrational. It rarely is.

"Yes Canje Toad we all calculated that range for current production."

I don't recall ever seeing the range: 900-1700.

Everybody insisted that daily was 2000, which was *******s. People somehow thought it was an insult to give that range and then insulted me instead.

Looks very solid. Record quarter/year, with strong outlook for cobalt and coking coal.

Funny - the rampers are nowhere to be seen...what a surprise!

I still think there is a good opportunity here and that the price is ridiculously low, but this is not another I3E/GKP.

It also settles this nonsense claim of current daily production being 2,000 boepd given verbally. The mathematics clearly showed there was no way it could have been anything like that figure. And I am glad that I discounted it, however vigorously some people claimed that it was a fact.

2022/H1 guidance is 1,500-1,650.

This is consistent with my implied Q4 production figures from 15 Jan 2022:

Low: Average=(2730+2730+2050+900)/4=2103
High: Average=(2730+2730+2050+1700)/4=2303

Q4/implied: 900-1700.

I'll hold, as I think the company will continue to make good money at this oil price, but it reinforces the idea that most of the profits here will have to go back into drilling rather than shareholder distributions.