Member Info for CaneToad

@Hippo: I don't think they have a 'short' shelf life. It's a matter of whether or not I'd wait for 'years' for the production to improve. The share price dropped because production dropped. Even with several new wells, the H1 fortecast is below the 2000 boepd that the CEO claimed.

It's simple.

- I want to understand why production has dropped 50%
- I want to see proof that the declines have stopped
- I want to understand why the CEO tells people that production was 2000 boepd in Q4, when it WASN'T

@Ginger: I know the quotes... you have to realise that there are other oil companies that are also very cheap, are in stable jurisdictions, pay an 8% divi and which have stable production profiles, e.g. I3E.

Considering that we saw a 50% decline in production last year and there's not yet any compelling *proof* that the declines have stopped, why would a smart investor wait 'years' for things to improve?

FYI: I'm long here. I'm curious about your approach to wait years, when the oil price rise might not last that long.

I'll judge the guy by results. Quarterly and Annual results are a record. I don't see how that can be improved. I guess you guys wanted Elon Musk as CEO - he turned down the role - sorry!

'All operational and financial metrics for FY2021 were within, or better than, guidance.'

@GingerHippo: "Think in years, not in days, weeks or months."

I have some patience, but not 'years' - we're seeing high oil prices *now*. Nobody knows what they'll be in 'years' time.

They need to show they're on track to *significantly* increase production this year if there is any chance of the share price recovering. Adding the odd 100 boepd won't help the share price, after we saw a 50% decline last year.

Also, oil projects are going to become increasingly unpopular several years down the track; that's another reason why I discount the Jamaica field. Ask anybody over at ADV what a wildcat drilling project is worth...

@Swan: Are you able to provide a guess as to what you see the potential of the 2022 drill campaign? e.g. how many boepd is the target for ASD-2? Are we talking about 100 boepd? or is it much more than this?

@CHRIS: Agree with you. It's more about the wider market rather than GEMD. Most of the UK market has been in a downtrend since June last year. Very few stocks will move up under that scenario.

Yeah, it's been a grim few months for me. Up until a couple of weeks ago, energy had done well for me, but that has now also dried up. From what I see, there's widespread panic selling. I'm hanging back, trying to keep some powder dry in case the nightmare of last week repeats.

Price looks tempting to add another 100k shares to average-down, but I'm going to wait for results. I know this dog too well, to trust it not to bite me.

@JG68: "just fearful UK could follow US into bear market territory."

For a large number of small/mid-caps, the UK is *already* in bear-market territory. The market peak was Jun last year, with some sectors peaking earlier, in April-May.

In the US, it *looks* as though the market (NASDAQ) is only down 18% or so, but in reality, the index is being held up by a small number of names. A large proportion of stocks are >50% down now.

@Cacher: This is what the RNS says:

"Mr. Bishop Lafleche has been with the Company for the past eight years, most recently as Chief Investment Officer responsible for originating and executing the Group's acquisitions and disposals. He led the Group's most recent and transformational Voisey's Bay cobalt stream acquisition and the successful exit of Anglo Pacific's only thermal coal royalty. As a member of the Group's Executive Committee, Marc has been integral in shaping the Group's vision and strategy."

Are you saying that this is wrong?

Do you know more about the company that JT?

@Greeno; what's you're take on this? Does this mean that the ownership of the asset and the right to sell it is under question? I noticed it in the update, but hadn't absorbed the meaning of it.

"APF simply jumped at the opportunity to tag onto that deal."

Who cares how it happens? As long as it's happened... The fact remains that they've recorded record quarter/year and the share price has not yet caught up.

They've just recorded a record quarter/year. As far as I understand, that's been heavily influenced by the Voisey's Bay acquisition, which was led by BL? I see they've also just produced a new website. I like how they've shown more of the team.

This share is highly correlated with the commodity price cycle and I expect it to gain significantly over the coming months.

I could be 100% wrong. I am biased. Do your own research.

Looks good to me; production doubled + some exploration opps. I've purchased another 5000 shares.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/james_fisher_launches_decommissioning_firm-28-jan-2022-167724-article/

@Swan: Agree. It was most likely a slipup. I think it's reasonable that they make a statement to that effect, if only to just say 'hey, we made a mistake'. I'm disappointed that they didn't do that when given the opportunity. But the market reacted when they discounted the price by 2/3 from its high...

Going forwards, this is getting ridiculous, with the forward P/E sitting at 1.8 in Stockopedia. Even with the reduced production, I think they'll be saved (this time) by the high oil price, so I'm staying invested and hope that Brian appreciates that they need more honesty with shareholders and less blather.

Secondly. There is ABSOLUTELY NO WAY that they were producing 2000 boepd in Q4, unless the production magically increased and then dramatically decreased again. Conclusion; the production in Q4 was roughly the current guidance - AJ-13 guidance, which is NOWHERE near 2000 boepd.

Brian needs to stop saying this nonsense. It damages to the company; it scares away serious investors. It lowers the share price. If Brian wants to know why what's causing the share price to drop, he needs to look in the mirror.

@Swan: "why don’t some of the critics on here reach out to the company to get clarification."

- I asked about the verbal claim of 2000 boepd - they did not answer, even though I presented the video; here it is again:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwLRFN8i5h4&t=67s

- I sent them my calculation of the implied Q4 production - they declined to answer; replying only with blather

The only thing that I post is FACT. You can care whether or not to believe FACTS. If you look back at my history, you'll find nothing but FACT, based on RNS and simple maths. I'm not a critic. I'm an investor. One that tries to use facts and reason, rather than listening to anonymous people on a board, who rely on hopes and wishful thinking.

My guess is that it's viewed as a 'growth' stock; it has a forward PE of 22 and pays no dividends. The UK market has been in decline for 6m now and today is terrible for most stocks, with high PE/growth stocks being hit the hardest. I don't know why this one is so attacked in the UK though.