Member Info for CaneToad

Not good. It looks like we're heading to 200p or under.

I admit, I'm starting to regret adding here and not getting out instead. Something is not right here. For reasons I do not understand, it continues to selloff after great results, even though it's dirt cheap. That tells me something important.

Cash in the bank is not an indicator of anything ... net cash *is*.

@K3VMC: There is no liquidity in MNTO itself. It's common to have days of zero volume. I thought it might do OK, but it seems that listing the shares on the Venture Exchange has been a mistake. This time last year, it looked like Minto was on a trajectory of increasing Sumitomo receipts and profitability, but capex now seems to consume everything in sight.

PERE is now a fund. And funds often trade at a discount to NAV. For example, Georgia Capital (CGEO) trades at 50% of NAV and it holds a decent sized portfolio of Blue-chip companies. For CGEO, I guess the market discounts the price due to perceived geopolitical risk. PERE has nothing like the financial strength of CGEO, nor does it have the corporate governance or history of profitability. There's the reason for the discount to NAV.

On the positive, Minto must be starting to make some money at the current copper price, so things could improve in the medium to long term.

Good luck.

This could be very profitable business, but the company is stuffed full with fat cats, who drain away every last penny of profitability. They're just there to line their own pockets, which they're doing exceptionally well.

Yes, I skimmed the Arden writeup. Will work my way through the RNS.

It's obviously been a horrow story to own in the past, but I don't see a huge amount of downside from this level and I think they have a fair chance of some good news over the coming months.

This looks to me like a response to the declining production, but having fallen so much, I see it having less risk now - maybe I'm 100% wrong........... I've taken a nano punt and will watch for a while. I can see it flying on any upbeat news.

I added another £10k just after the opening bell.

I'm prepared to add more if the price slips further in this crazy market.

"The Group strengthened its net cash position at the end of the year to US$20.9 million (Q3 2021: US$11.7 million net debt)."

That is self-explanatory. Not ambiguous in any way.

TotalTrader - I have no idea where you're getting this debt figure from.

OK, I now see Auld (Jeffrey David)

Auld (Jeffrey David) / 3.5m shares / £57k

Pretty small holdings I would say.

Unless I'm mistaken (happens a lot!), I can't see any large director holdings.

Redziniak (Lukasz Antoni) / 720k shares / £11k

I see that Richard Sneller (ex Baillie Gifford?) is a major shareholder.
I've just become more interested.

With the current oil/gas prices and the current share price and debt-free state (?), this looks to be (somewhat) de-risked. I see a lot of similarities here to UOG; maybe safe for a 'cigar butt' trade.

Tunisa looks to have limited production decline; any chance they can drill some more wells there?

Unless I'm wrong, Sandstorm is gold-focussed. They have a forward pe of 33 and have not done well lately - as you'd expect, as they're mirroring gold itself.

Similar story for Osiko and Maverix - gold focussed.

Again, APF has a forward pe of just seven (7) and that's probably going to drop if commmodity prices stay as they are.

I agree with the idea of your post, but I don't see any value in APF trying to become another gold royalty company. I think there's more value in continuing to extend along the current path: battery metals, etc, which they're already pivoting to. They have the luxury that they're going to have $150m of firepower later this year as JT mentions. That's a lot of firepower for this company and I'm really optimistic about their future. I think they're likely to see institutional interest soon.

I'd like to see them pickup a meaningful copper or lithium royalty.

Tempted to dip a toe in here.
Production decline looks to be the main problem.
Any confidence they can maintain production at a good enough level to make some money?

The fact of the matter is that none of you can explain why the guidance is now 1500-1650, even after AJ-13 and ASD-2 and other work, since the verbal claim of 2,000 boepd. You're in a state of denial and can't seem to face facts.

I am not confident that the production is still not dropping. There's no proof whatsoever.

I have an investment here; I'd like to see the true value of the company reflected in the share price, but I keep my discussion to facts. What is said here has limited, if-any impact on the share pirce.

I think we're comparing chalk and cheese.

Wheaton has a market cap of £13b, forward pe of 26, they're heavily exposed to gold and silver, palladium + some cobalt; they've suffered along with gold miners for that reason.

Franco has an £18m market cap, forward pe of 35.

Anglo Pacific has a market cap of just £293m and a forward pe of 7.

Clearly Wheaton and Franco have more staff and much bigger budgets, but they don't have a forward pe of 7..........

@Hippo: 'priced 10 times what we are'

Company/Guidance/Cap
UOG/1,500/14.5m
I3E/19,000/162m

They're priced at ten times, because they have >10x production............. I3E spent many years trying to get a wildcat in the North Sea, but as I explained to you, they pivoted to Canada and currently are very profitable. I expect you're looking at very stale information or can't do simple maths. Do yourself a favour and listen to something recent.

I'm not trying to sell you on anything. I have a mid-sized holding in UOG and a large holding in I3E , along with 10 other oilers.

The CEO should not make erroneous production claims. I try to ignore rampers on these boards and use RNS instead, but I took the CEO at face value and added to my position after hearing that verbal claim. I was materially misled.

re: this 'I work for an honest living' nonsense, I invest for my pension, you ramping clown.

I thought Bo's presentation was quite good. I'd been a bit suspicious about Bo in the past. But he seems to have gained some passion for what he was saying. He surprised me. I'm holding/hoping!

GH: You're falling in love with UOG. It is not unique.

As I mentioned to you, I3E are profitable. They are dirt cheap. They already pay a divi. The next divi will be 8% or more. One of the founders has his entire net worth in the company. They produce 20k boepd from a large number of small wells. They have a wildcat in the North Sea, which used to be the primary project, but was put to the side by pivoting to Canadian fields at the time when the oil price crashed in 2020. The drilling project is fully funded.

I have no doubt that UOG might still be profitable, even though production has halved, because of the oil price. The question is whether or not they'll restore production back to 2700 boepd and whether or not the market will now trust BL after he's made erroneous production claims. Making erroneous production claims is a serious matter.

GH: Are you in fact working for UOG????????