Member Info for CaneToad

Presumably you know what happened when everybody shorted VW, back in 2008? There were lots of UK traders/spreadbetters who ended up bankrupt... I'm not saying that CPI would ever experience a short squeeze like that, because it's as sexy as a fart in a bathtub, but weirder things have happened.

Pros:
By all the metrics I see, this is a solid company. Revenue looks to be on upward trajectory. They've managed to stay profitable throughout the past two years, though they're well down on previous years. I would have thought the Shadow Fall story has now subsided, because DPO is now done and it's contributing nicely to revenue.

Cons:
- Forward PE is 20.7. That's a high multiple for the UK markets and this type of 'growth' stock is being hammered at the moment
- The short interest is still high. That is significant, because NETW does not have a significant retail following in the UK.
- The technicals look terrible

Verdict:
I'm staying out until I see an improvement. The US market has *not* dropped significantly yet; it could still do that. If it does, I think there's the chance that a share like NETW could drop to a PE of 10 or lower, which would represent a 50% drop from here. That's too risky for me.

@dixywrecked: "Yeh only really need a 2% swing. Tullow oil is a good one for day trading aswell. Its less risk but i miss the large gains"

Good luck, but I'm going to pass ... I actively trade medium-long term, but not on a 1%-2% margin in companies that can gap down 20% in a day. You can't control the risk. The risk/reward is massively skewed in the wrong direction and that always ends badly in the long run.

The real money in shares like CPI is to hold them long-term.

Brent over $93 now; was briefly above $95. Most of the US/CA oilers up significantly.
Hopefully, we'll follow them up next week.

And oil up 5%...
Stocks heavily down
Something big breaking out

C'mon guys. Backup your claims and provide us with the name of one (1) UK oil company that produces 1,000 boepd and has a valuation of £50m.

Statements such as "This Mcap is just too low..." are total ramp, unless they give some justification/analysis or at least a comparison to another company valuation.

I will happily add a significant amount into UOG once I see a *consistent* increase to production. I have >10-times in GKP, but it is *consistently* producing ~50,000 boepd, pays monster divis and has a forward PE of 3.1. Similar story for I3E; they went from zero (0) boepd to 20,000 boepd in little over a year and they pay a monster divi and announced new wells today.

Share prices don't go up sustainably on their own. They require achievments. Halving production in 1 year is not an achievment. I am also not happy with the ridiculous salaries being paid here, when the company has limited cash.

@dixywrecked: "in and out with 62,000 shares again today another £130. If i get caught out ill hold"

Crikey, that's a thin margin; sounds like less than 1% profit ... Reward <1% and Risk = 100% ...

Are you mainly a technical trader?

If results are good, I'd expect 20+% in a day and a nice recovery over the subsequent months. If they're ordinary/poor, I expect a 22-30% drop.

Good luck

There's a huge spread between the broker ratings:

Barclays/400p/7 Feb 2022
Peel Hunt/210p/11 Nov 2021

Overall (average) consensus is 213p.

The cash burn is a bit disappointing.

I'm hoping that the sales numbers are significantly better than what they're saying. I'd like to think we're getting closer to the final statement: "we believe the PFAS remediation market has the potential to generate substantial cash flows for the business for the foreseeable future."...

ARB/DGHI have risen the least over the past week. The only common factor that I can think of is that DGHI also has the threat of a raise hanging over it after its NASDAQ listing.

==========
ARB / 10%
ARBK / 10%
BTBT / 37%
BITF / 26%
COIN / 14%
CORZ / 18%
DGHI / 9%
DMGI / 29%
HIVE / 20%
HUT / 34%
IREN / 18%
MARA / 36%
MSTR / 29%
RIOT / 30%
SLNH / 15%
==========

All miners look bullish now. NASDAQ is having an 'inflation fit' at the moment, but fu*kit, I've increased my RIOT and DGHI positions and added a new position in HIVE. Hope it's not a bull trap! I'll increase ARB at some stage.

@volcano: "like i said before there is good support at 134p area"

We're sitting on that support now... I can't see it holding if the results are mediocre.

@Jdubya: "They have had quite a few last shots from me. Nothing has improved, apart from the debt situation."

IOF is never going to win a 'sexy stock' competition. If you're looking for the next Du Pont, you're in the wrong place...

On the other hand, this is the best that this company has been. It's a profitable little company with improving fundamentals.

- The debt is refinanced at a low rate
- Iodine prices are high
- A new plant is in the pipeline
- They're making record profits
- Oil spending is on the up and I expect the drop in production to be temporary
- The share price has been much higher (~double) when all of these were worse.

I think there's significant upside here. It's going to be a painful drawn-out process, but I think investors will be rewarded from this level over the next 6-12m.

Disclaimer: do your own research. I could be 100% wrong. I'm biased and am long IOF.

Correction to my last sentence: (ATYM is currently priced on a forward pe of 5.7, which is even cheaper than CAML).

Guys, what's the evidence that there is a buyer?

There's a lot of stuff going on at the moment. One of the most significant that I see is ELIX. If that works well on a large scale, it would be a huge development of international significance; it would add new revenue streams and eliminate the trucking/shipping/smeltering. Then there's Masa Valverde! These are both given zero value in the share price at the moment. If they pull off either of those, the upside could be huge. And each of these projects are fully financed from revenue, so there's no downside. ATYM is currently priced on a forward pe of 5.7, which is even cheaper than ATYM.

"Even Zac could see that UOG are vulnerable at this low Mcap level "

Utter nonsense. Provide us with the name of one (1) oil company that produces 1,000 boepd and had a valuation of £50m.

Zac says exactly what he's told to say and they will edit out anything that BL (the guy paying for the interview) doesn't like. You guys are hilarious and very naive.

Furthermore. In case some of you clowns didn't realise it. That interview is a PAID interview. i.e. they say exactly what the CEO asks for. It's paid marketing. You guys are hilarious if you think there'd be anything new in it.

Do some calculations. Provide some production estimates. Tell me something about the geology of our fields. Apart from that, I'm not interested in reading the junk on here.

Guys, you need to understand that this is a discussion board. This is not where most of the investors come from. If you think that discussions here influence the share price, you need to get out more.

I have a small-mid sized holding in both UOG and SENX.

If you doubt my motives, I do not care. You will find that I'm consistent across all shares. I always deal in facts. If people get upset by that - it's too bad. My production forecasts were very unpopular, but they were accurate, unlike the nonsense being spouted here. I recall one idiot telling me that UOG were 'making a million a day' at current oil prices. It's comments like that, which are trully dangerous and completely ill-informed; they are ramping of the worst type. I ignored them, becaue they had no calculations to prove it. If you go over to some of the boards like I3E, you'll find some people have given very detailed spreadsheets to backup their valuation - you guys provide nothing except ramping and you insult people that say anything that's not a ramp.

I find it ridiculous that clowns here think I'm de-ramping the share. On one of the previous RNS announcements, my BUY orders were the ONLY significant orders. You guys need to back up what you're saying with BUY orders rather than asking everybody else, like ME, to do the buying and push up your shares...

The overall short interest here is quite small.
**Assuming we get enough PI's coming in / II's adding** they'll overpower the vultures.
It's too early to say though if this can be sustained.

I really doubt that UOG will be taken over given the big drop in the production. Same story for Serinus. The best use of the money is in drilling new wells to get production back up. If they can get production *consistently* back to 2500-3000 the share price will take care of itself. People will flood in. With production at this level, significantly below a year ago, nobody is coming to buy this out and few will buy the shares. Stop dreaming.

Dipped some more of my toe in here.
It looks like a solid little business with a product in demand and a growth pipeline.