Member Info for CaneToad

Romania is in the EU... I cannot see Russia trying to re-take any EU states... They are not 'that' stupid. Doing that would escalate the crisis tenfold and I think it would lead to a major war. It's not going to happen.

@erratum: Also, if you think the current price is so attractive, why aren't you already a shareholder? Presumably, you're looking at the 20p lows of Nov 2020...

@erratum: "it will only be paid to the extent that the old Ince partners hit certain billing targets and that revenue is subsequently collected"

I'm not concerned about revenue. That's superb. I'm worried about net profits. I've not looked at the agreement, but if it's based just on revenue, that has me even more worried. I'm also worried about how little cash they have. What's your view on the cash situation?

Looks like a small bounce off oversold RSI. But I don't see anything in the chart telling me that the trend has changed. Everything hinges on the results on 15 March. If the results are solid, there's plenty of time to pile in, as this share has limited PI interest.

@Redceo: "The difference here currently is that previous short attacks have been the result of weak performance."

Not always.

I'm very positive about RMG, but I expect the shorters are going to try and play the inflation theme. The fundamentals *currently* look rock solid, but they'd quickly change if they had wage pressure. According to Paul Scott of Stockopedia, a 10% wage rise would wipe out their entire profit. It's very finely balanced. On the plus-side, the other operators would have the same problem as do a lot of people-focussed businesses.

If not for the shorters, I'd be loading up now.

@AngerSkarz: "Maybe if Putin heads towards Kyiv we will see a much bigger drop?"

I don't think this has been dropping primarily due to Ukraine. It's being systematically driven down by shorters. I've seen those same companies attack several shares I've owned and the result is always the same - they wreck it. I'm unsure whether or not to get out now or to wait for results and hopefully we'll see strong buying.

It's nice to think that those vampires will be burned, but I've rarely seen that. 9/10 of the time they succeed to drive the share price into the gutter with their algos. It's depressing that this type of systematic attack is legal, but it is what it is.

It's been interesting to watch Union Jack Oil turn around. They're now worth £25m. I can't find any FY guidance, but it looks like 700 boepd.... And the CEO is even more colorful than Brian. I can't see any institutional interest in UJO at all. It's all PI interest from cult followers.

Surely UOG must also be raking in the cash at these prices? It would be good to understand exactly how much free cashflow they're generating and something about the stability of production. This share price could easily double *IF* those two things are addressed. I can't see the share price moving on Jamaica news, unless it's something really concrete and I cannot see that happening any time soon.

@erratum: the share price is this low for a reason. It's because investors, especially institutional investors realise that Biles is running the company for the benefit of partners. God I wish I realised it earlier. The revenue is huge, but profits are non-existent. And look at the divi - it's pathetic. It's crazy they're paying it at all as they have almost no cash. the RCF is fully committed. It's clear that they'd have difficulty getting any more from the banks too, as they're hardly profitable. And they seem to have a huge liability to partners - well beyond the market cap from what I can tell.

****IF**** the financial results are solid, with good net profit, this company is ridiculously/stupidly undervalued. The jury is out. In the meantime, I've trimmed my position heavily a month ago and I'm not yet decided whether or not to plough any more money into it - it all depends on results. If results are poor this time, I can see this falling sub 20p within a few months and I'd get out entirely.

@bangrak: You can currently buy £1,000 worth, but not £2,000

I expect it will disappear soon. But that is a common feature of ATYM. That's not what I'd class as super liquid...

@erratum: OK, thanks for pointing that out. I took the data in Stockopedia at face value. I'll report it to them. In any case, it's still declined a long way from 2017.

@Naylor: the problem that I see here is that while revenue is significant (a record?), profits are almost non-existent. They also seem to have a huge 'deferred compensation' bill, which looks like buyout fees due to the partners of firms they acquired over the years. The company seems to be a cash funnel into the pokets of the partners. And according to a recent update, they're not flush with cash and have maxed out their RCF, but I am hoping that that's only transitory, given their cashflows. If the results are respectable, I'll pickup some more shares. I'm hanging back, whinging until then.

Bid: 410p
Ask: 420 p
Spread: 2.5%

A share with a spread of 2.5% is not incredibly liquid. It's not incredibly illiquid either. You'll find that the spread varies significantly and sometimes you can't even get a quote to sell £50k. But heck, I'm not looking for an argument, nor do I have any interest in one...

Correction. 28p and dropping.

I am surprised that Biles hasn't been given a knighthood for services to the investment community. It's a total mystery why Arden shareholders want to be part of this circus.

2,500p in 2008
500p in 2011
28p in 2022

I'm positive, but I will NOT be adding even 1 share until I see good results. Even then, I'll be waiting until shorts close. It does sometimes seem that this company is progressing very fu*king slowly.

- I want to *SEE* debt come down
- I want to see the revenue slide stopped
- I want to see profitability improving
- I want to *SEE* things improving and the market not treating this share like a total dog

I can't see it going bust, but FFS, we need more than that.

The really perverse thing is that Evraz (Vanadium mines in Russia) is up 3% today, while JAY is down 6%.........

Go figure!

Finally, if the company can transition to a multi-asset producer, that alone will see more investors flow in. A lot of investors are very wary of single-asset producers, however good they are.

Oh yeah, the drop in the share price sucks.

This share is still relatively illiquid and I wonder if some people are freeing up some cash, given the extremely volatile market; I did that myself yesterday. It's not 'panic' selling. It's risk-management.

I expect that Trafigura would want to give ATYM some time (1-2y?) to develop Masa Valverde - in order to extract the highest price. There is a 43-101 due in 2022/Q1. Getting a positive 43-101 and a development permit could put a rocket under the company valuation. Then there is E-LIX. Getting that operational will allow the production of copper cathode onsite, not to mention the possibility of zinc and gold as well. Trucking to the port/smeltering will be eliminated - I expect that's going to also help with the environment credentials.

It doesn't make any sense to me to try and sell it now when the valuation could double in a years time. There are too many moving parts at the moment and the big uplift will only happen once one or more of those projects comes off.

Regarding permitting for Masa Valverde. My understanding is that this 'should' be relatively easy to attain, as they don't require a new tailings facility - all ore will be trucked to their existing location.

It would be useful if the company posted a timeline for some of the projects. e.g. that 'they are looking to get Dundas funding by the end of Q2'. Somewhat painful to watch the continual downtrend caused by the vacuum of information.

@Ronaldo: I've contacted them several times. They don't respond any more. They do not seem to give a hoot. I wished I'd realised it 6m ago. It's a terrible shame, as the company, in theory, is ridiculously undervalued. But there are much smarter people than me out there that worked it out 6m ago and got out early or never bought in the first place... It's been a
very expensive lesson.