Member Info for CaneToad

"I can see Putin going out when his “circle of trust” decide to turn against him. It might happen soon"

There is now a $1m on his head; dead or alive. I expect one of his own team could even take him out. Sanctions could reverse quickly if a moderate gets control after that.

I got very excited seeing that RNS this morning; but quickly realised it has no financial impact whatsoever. We need info on Dundas funding or positive news about on of the other projects.

"Description: Jay Hatfield, Portfolio Manager of ICAP, said on Monday that he expects oil prices to stay within the $80-100 range for U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, noting the Chinese government is likely to accept Russian oil imports despite sanctions imposed by the West."

Only an idiot tries to forecast prices. Current price is WTI: $110, Brent: $112.

Those guys could not be more out of touch.

Nice price action for the past few days.

@rift: "UJO probably has a much bigger reserve? Reserves play a huge part in pricing"

I think it's just FOMO. I've been in that stock before; no plans to go back into it. To be honest, I've never looked at the reserves, nor would I know how to interpret them. It's nice to know roughly how long the field life is, but that's about it for me and I expect - for most people.

UOG will move significantly *IF* they stabilise production and get a few new wells online. No matter what BL says, it's not going to perform without that.

This stock has minimal PI interest. No large funds are offloading.
But the selling pressure is relentless.
99.99% likely it's a shorter.

Results in 2w time (15 March 2022)
I'll consider picking some up at 100p before results, but probably wait until the nunbers are known.

Marshall Wace are doing a fine job! For a start, Ian Wace is a big donor to the Conservative Party and should be allowed to fleece as many Private Investors as he wishes.

At some point, maybe at 40-50p, once most of the PIs have been sucked dry, with their nerves shot, they'll switch to long.

If they're not making good money now, then BL needs to go. They should spend some of the cash pile to expand the drilling program.

Look at what UJO has done over the past month:

======================
Company/Cap/Prod
======================
UJO/£25.5m/700 boepd?
UOG/£15.5m/1,500 boepd
======================

I'm hoping some of you guys looked at I3E when I mentioned it a month back. FYI: they used to be an explorer; zero prod. Now 20,000 boepd of stable prod and look at the effect on the share price in 1y.

From what I see, thermal coal is at all time high. Though we only have a 10% weight, it should provide a nice uplift in Q1.

It would be really nice to see a big buyer step in and wipe these hedge fund clowns off the map.

It's a fact that Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia are in a security pact. Kazakhstan could be guitly by association in the eyes of investors. It's impossible to say what will happen with any certainty.

https://eurasianet.org/russia-seeks-solidarity-against-sanctions-from-eurasian-trading-bloc

From what I've read, there is no truth to the statement that 'Kazakhstan has been asked for help by Russia or that it refused the offer; Kazakhstan diplomats have refuted the story'. Politics in Kazakhstan are volatile and their support or non-support for Russia could change quickly.

Disclaimer: I am long CAML. I've not made up my mind what to do, if anything, with my holding.

@L3: I'm just starting to investigate TGL.

If you're interested in Canadian oilers, have a look at I3E. It used to be an explorer, but transformed itself over the past year into a stable producer (~20k boepd). It's worth investigating.

@SD235: "As in you have sold? If so why?"

No, I'm still holding. I simply mentioned that I've also been a shareholder in the two Georgian banks: TBC and BGEO.

BGEO is one of the biggest holdings in the CGEO portfolio.

At high copper prices, Minto was a cash cow with Capstone. I'l bet their regretting selling it. Given that copper has been close to the ATH for a year now, Minto should be starting to make serious money and perhaps they'll pay a dividend this year, giving PERE some income. That's just my educated guess as a past shareholder. I could be 100% wrong.

My expectation is that there *are* shorts - it's just that they're not declared. This happoens all the time, e.g. Premier Oil was attacked in exactly the same way, but in that case the FCA actually managed to find the short sellers (a Hong Kong hedge fund).

Cunning short-sellers can drive the price down even with a very small batch of borrowed shares; it depends on the average daily volume, free float, etc. They can recycle the same shares over and over, without ever getting to a level at which a declaration is needed. You can decide for yourself whether or not it amounts to Market Manipulation, but the FCA is blind to it. They try and target shares that have very limited PI interest. Another one they attack in this way is NETW.

If the results are good, there would be a fund enter on the long side and I expect they'll quickly close; moving onto the next company to target!

@TrekMadone, well done on your entry price. You must already be nicely up on this after Friday.

I think the portfolio breakdown is currently:
==============
Cobalt: 45%
Coking coal: 12%
Copper: 11%
Thermal coal: 11%
Iron ore: 9%
Uranium: 7%
Vanadium: 4%
Gold: 1%
Other: 1%
==============

The top 4 account for ~80%.

Q4 was a record and so was the full year.

Cobalt has increased another 5% in Q1, while coking coal and copper are very strong and thermal coal is close to a record. So I expect Q1 to be a new record and if these prices continue, we may see another record year. Then there's the Russia situation.

At some point, the record profits here will become obvious and I expect (hope) they'll pay a special divi and do a buyback. And as JT has mentioned, they hope to have $150m of firepower to deploy into new royalties later this year.

If all of these happen, I see 50+% upside here over the next 12m.

The question for me is not whether UOG's fields are the best in the world. Clearly they're not.

It's whether or not these fields are still profitable and whether or not the current UOG market cap is attractive when compared to other players. Kuwait Energy would not continue operating the field if it wasn't profitable. There are too many other larger sites they could focus on if these Egytian fields weren't profitable.

On a comparitive basis, UJO is overpriced compared to UOG as they only produce ~700 boepd, while their market cap is almost twice that of UOG... All of the new development permits for UJO have been declined and they only have one significant UK mainland site. On the other hand, UOG has an active drilling campaign and if their drilling success continues, they could see an uplift to the guidance. I'm assuming here that they don't see any further declines...

By my calculation, the oil price rise will partly offset the lower production and we'd expect to be roughly equal to last year once oil is at ~$100/barrel. At current levels, I expect we're 10% below last year in terms of revenue.

Using the same calculation as on page 9 of the Interim Results 1H 2021, Daily prod of 2,200 and $70/bbl, gives $1.96m of revenue when contractor effective take is 42.53%. At $95 oil and 1,500 boepd, they make $1.8m. On an annualised basis, this is $20m and I would expect that they are nicely profitable at this level as they don't pay any tax in UK or Egypt on profits due to the PSC terms.

@NOFEAR: Man, I've seen your CPI ramping all over the place. Is it possible to tone it down a bit?

@TrekMadone: Well done on choosing a good entry time for APF.

I looked at GLO. I'm assuming you mean Contourglobal? From what I see, they have a huge amount of debt (net gearing is 2000%), while the PE ratio is 26. What makes it a good investment?

Good luck.