Member Info for CaneToad

After some research, I see the following (potential) reasons for the drop here:

(1) Europe is seeing record outflows from equity funds; the outflows are continuing to rise.

(2) Power costs. According to Bloomberg, Spanish power prices have quadrupled over the past 6m; they are still rising. It is causing a lot of businesses to temporarily stop production. I expect this to have a huge impact on ATYM's running costs, until they install the solar panels.

(3) Illiquidity. ATYM has become quite illiquid over the past two weeks.

Thought this was holding up well until the past week. Seems to be slipping away. Concerns about power costs?

I was tempted to jump in this morning if the results were good. As mentioned, it looked like gobblygook and incredibly obfuscated. I didn't see anything impressive. I am so glad I left it. I might reconsider at 15p, but am more inclined not to touch it at all.

I am furious about this nonsense that Stuart Morgan was spouting last year, saying that the company would be debt-free by end of 2022. That is clearly - IMPOSSIBLE.

@Mikee76: "Canetoad there will be no intention to get debt to zero, there never was."

At H1 results, Stuart Morgan (Investor Relations) said they would be debt-free by end of 2022. He says it in the video from H1. He reiterated it to me personally on the phone. He said it! I cannot see how that is possible and for that reason I'm staying out.

Revenue means absolutely nothing. Lots of businesses have huge revenues, but low profits. e.g. most construction companies. e.g. Costain. Profit and Margin are the only thing that's important.

I'm even more confused after reading it. It's incredibly obfuscated. Only suitable for an accountant.

I don't see that net debt has dropped much and am confused how they'll get that to 'zero' by the end of 2022, when £700m of divestments have been done and it's only dropped a tiny bit. I would have liked a statement along the lines of 'we've reduced it by XYZ and it will decrease further very soon after we get the rest of the divestment money'. Instead - it's gobblygook.

It's nothing to do with CEY.
Look at other Gold Miners. Most US/CA/UK gold miners are down. Some are lagging, but will probably drop later today.

Interesting to see one of the Candian Nickel miners shoot up on the Ni ris - also pre-production/pre-revenue generating. Polymet Mining (POM ); +35% on the news.

I decide to exit Bluejay; I'll look to re-enter if/when the get funding for Dundas and/or get 43-101s for their other resources.

@JG68: I don't mind if the money hasn't actually been received, but is in the pipeline and earmarked for debt reduction. I think the market wil be OK with that. It MUST be for debt-reduction though. It is totally unacceptable and a management failure if a big proportion of the divestments have gone into working capital. If it's gone into working capital, it means they've actually gone BACKWARDS, even though they've divested a big part of the company. It would mean that the company is slowly dying.

I don't see how the CEO could survive another year if the strategy is not reducing debt. I want to see margins improving. I have no interest in seeing them win these tired old projects that nobody else wants.

Revenue is vanity. I'd rather they chopped revenue in half if it meant they were making more margin. They need to cease taking on low-margin contracts FULL STOP. It's insanity.

If debt has not been shown to be being reduced substantially, John Lewis MUST go. The head of Investor Relations, Stuart Morgan must also go.

To be very clear, we need to see that a large proportion of the £700m divestments has gone into debt reduction. The market will be OK if iit takes another few months for the money to land, but it MUST go into debt reduction.

If it's just a £50m-£100m, that is not good enough and I will definitely exit my position as I think they'll be out of fire power. They'll start to look like Costain and Micro-Focus International, which will take many years to recover, if they ever recover.

If the debt is not reduce substantially, I expect the only way forward is to break up the company and sell off the parts.

I do not currently see any evidence that CPI will go bust any time soon.

Revenue is ~£3.2b
Net profit is expected to be £267m
Net debt is £925m, but that figure **SHOULD** have dropped in the next update
Forward PE is 3.2 (i.e. dirt cheap)

This is not anything like Carillion.

**ASSUMING THAT MANAGEMENT IS TELLING THE TRUTH**, they are operating profitably and should have reduced debt significantly this year. Only time will tell if this is the truth. BS excuses will not work.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/doesn-t-russian-oil-smell-144827054.html

It is BLOODY DESPICABLE of Shell to be buying Russian Oil.

Investors will be calling for the sacking of Jonathan Lewis and Stuart Morgan if the performance has not improved.

I would support their removal as I expect will most of the institutional investors.

"So at what point or price do they become a takeover target? Can't be far off surely?"

I'd welcome a takeover from Serco. They'd sack the CPI management and salvage the profitable bits. It looks looks attractive at the current valuation, especially if CPI falls another 20% after results:

Company/Mkt Cap
===============
Serco/1,517
Capita/376
===============

If the information given out by Stuart Morgan ('we will be debt-free by end of 2022') is truthful, than I cannot see the company having solvency issues. The problem here is that it's hard now to see whether or not that guy is telling the truth.

@dusty: "Just to point out there is no direct exposure to thermal coal here. They completed the divestment of the Narrabri royalty at the end of last year(see rns on 31st dec)."

My mistake.

Top-3 remain Cobalt, Coking Coal and Copper and all of these are strong. It looks like Copper is at an all-time high, while Cobalt is continuing to rise and higher than Q4, so Q1 should be very strong and maybe another record.

@Genghis: I also exited my CAML position yesterday.

I couldn't justify holding it, when ATYM is just as solid a company, but with none of the political risks.

Good luck.

CS are saying that RMG is over-priced.
The forward PE (based on the consensus broker estimates) is 5.9, while UPS is on 16.4 and FEDEX is 9.9. Shoudl the PE be 2.5?
Credit Suisse are a total joke.

Liberum's comments regarding 'Royal Mail not being able to raise prices due to inflation' are clearly wrong. They have just raised stamp prices by 10%. Most of these brokers are idiots and just adjust their target as a share price moves. I worked in one of those places for 20+ years and it's laughable how they come up with their price targets - a dusty old DCF spreadsheet int which they put guessed values. As Warren Buffett has said, it's less reliable than astrology. You're better reading tea-leaves.

https://www.rferl.org/a/kazakhstan-uk-sanctions-russia/31732834.html

@Genhis: You say "My only comment is that stockpiles do nit = cash. tho oc they are a store of value once exported."

Your statement is incorrect.

As mentioned, Traxys pay for all copper directly at the mine. Any copper stored at Kounrad is the property of Traxys. This is what happened during covid.

@2B@C:

Regarding the North Sea Quattro deal. That is now terminated. There is no money due to United. They need to start looking for a new buyer. I'd give that 6-12m.

Regarding Hibiscus. United has received $0.95m, but the contract is now in dispute. Given the small amount of money and the cost of lawyers, that could be written off.

Regarding Italy, United have received $150k. If the deal closes/approvals are given, they'd be due $2.85m after certain 'milestone' events. I have no idea what those are. I guess we'll find out on 6 April.

Regarding the Tullow 'research', I give that zero value. On what accounting basis do you give it $3m?

Regarding production. We have guidance, but nothing else.

Hopefully they're making good money at the current oil price, but the important thing is to stabilise and grow production. A one-off influx of cash is unlikely to move the share price unless they can show that the production is being stabilised and grown.