Member Info for CaneToad

- Production has dropped from a year ago

- Year-end cash is pitiful @ £400k

- Lots of money is being made, but it's all going into maintaining production, with zero earmarked for investors

- Jamaica is still a pipedream as it was a year ago

- UOG would be attractive *if* they manage to increase production, but I've not seen any signs of that yet; just dribbles, which replace huge declines, with the net movement being downwards. I can't see why I'd divert money into this, when others like I3E have doubled in the time that this has stood still.

@Carats, I remember your 'positivity' from months back... The PDL update sounded good to me. Diamond prices up, debt heading down, the stock now rated as 'Super Stock' in Stockopedia, based on the balance sheet. It would be good to have a re-rate from brokers, but I'd expect that to happen at some point.

Obviously the rest of the market is dire, even along with energy atm.

I don't see any of the other diamond miners faring better than PDL and as I mentioned (though you think it's irrelevant), all miners are heavily down due to China.

If you think everything is going to ****e, why not trim positions? I'm only in commodities now; nothing else is working. I'll exit commodities if they also falter, but I remain a bull for now.

@MrCarats: Blackrock World Mining Trust is down ~9% today => almost all miners are out of favour. i.e. Today's drop is unlikely to be anything company-specific. Time to go to the gym or play some tennis.

"Disappeared as quickly as it came"

Sounds like spoofing.

I don't see any evidence that shipping costs are coming down. And with the recent lock-downs in China, the supply-chain issues have gotten worse. I expect that's going to add another 6m onto their previous expectation for any easing. Revenue on its own means absolutely zero. The only thing that matters is operating profit/net profit.

I ordinarily have no problem with leases. But when Net Gearing is 336% it's not borderline. It's dangerously high.

'small' would be < 50%
'very small' would be < 25%

Last time I looked, it was going to be 150% even after leases are stripped out.

The Citadel purchase is interesting. I recall they were shorting it before... so this makes it crystal clear, that they've manipulated the price down to the level they wanted. Hard to believe that it's legal.

On the other hand, the absolute level of shorts is still high and the technicals look terrible.
Think I'll wait.

@Know0: "non IFRS debt is now very small"

What's important is what the bulk of the investors *SEE*. Right now, they SEE:

Gross Gearing: 451.9%
Net Gearing: 336.21%

Admittedly, Net Gearing drops significantly once you strip out lease obligations, but there's no way in the world that it's 'very small'.

I think inflation is going to hit CPI very heavily. Happy to be wrong and to jump back in if I see some upwards momentum, but 'flatline' is the only pattern atm.

This must be one of the most manipulated shares in the UK markets. I think it's targeted, because of the very low retail interest - so nobody cares... The moves defy any logic, but needless to say somebody is laughing here and making a lot of money.

I was impressed how well this held up yesterday. Also in seeing that Stockopedia has upgraded HBR to 'Super Stock' status, which will bring in some more punters. I'd been a bit cautious about selling pressure due to the end of the lockup, which supposedly ended early April, but I can't see anything (yet) materialising.

Maybe this is inline, but I was underwhelmed. They've gone from being operationally profitable, to loss-making and have deteriorated on almost every financial measure.

I've invested/traded CPI for 2-years and got back in a few weeks ago around this price after seeing a (little) bit of momentum. That fizzled and I got out marginally above break-even. The company is clearly stronger than it was a couple of years ago and probably 'deserves' a higher price, but the market disagrees. The problem I now see is that UK/GDP growth is slowing (read, recession is on the way) and CPI always does badly in that environment. I'll be staying on the sidelines as the technicals suggest that the most likely move is downwards.

@erratum: "this is an anonymous chat board dealing with a penny stock and in this part of town at least every other poster is footpad, degenerate or spiv."

I doubt that INCE is a company for degenerates or spivs as you say. It's far too illiquid for that.

I've investedin/traded INCE for several years. I'd like to see the company do well.

I think it's reasonable for people to be critical of the strategy when most of us have lost substantial amounts of money in this company. I only have a modest holding now, but am sitting on a multi-five-figure loss.

Thanks for all the figures.

It a very nice business. Based on these figures, I see EV/Sales to be ~7, where 'sales' is VOLUME*(PRICE-OPEX). It's guesswork, because I'm not sure what the opex includes. My concern is where it goes from here. The sale price seems very low, compared to potash, which seems to be ~10x the price/MT?

I'm finding it hard to get excited about the sales and profit figures I'm guessing here, unless they sell it for much more or produce a lot more.

I'm happy to be shown to be wrong. I love the business and have been an investor here before.

OK - thanks. Wow, AUD 55/MT is much lower than I expected... that's pennies compared to most fertilizer prices.

Anybody have an idea of the AISC or even just the basic costs in Brazil (wages/machinery/Electricity) per MT?

Anybody able to take a guess at the price per MT?

At a price of AUD 500/MT and 150,000 MT, the value of sold goods have value AUD 75m, but I see only £1m revenue for last year... what am I missing?

Also, does anybody have an idea of the all-in-sustaining-cost (AISC)?

Regarding how much of the Minto value will be reflected in the PERE share price. Look at other energy funds, but I expect no more than 50-75% at most of the NAV. Even some of the large and diversified funds (e.g. Riverstone Energy) trade at a big discount to NAV.

@Ricardo, the Minto revenue should be decent. But that figure is not meaningful unless you take into account the All-In-Sustaining-Cost (AISC) of production. I expect that it's somewhere in the vicinity of $2.50 / pound for copper. You might find a more accurate figure in an RNS or in one of the old broker notes. The vast majority of the revenue is from copper as I think there are streaming agreements on the gold/silver.

This is interesting, because another firm, Tuckers Solicitors was recently targeted and was fined for not securing sensitive court information properly. It sounds like the same hackers are now targeting Ince.