Member Info for CaneToad

Ince launched a cyber security 'solution' in February 2021. I read today that Ince itself has been hacked and is being held ransom by the attacker:

https://www.legalfutures.co.uk/latest-news/ince-group-granted-injunction-after-ransomware-attack

@Diamond: I spent just over a year in JAY, but got too bored with the poor investor relations and lack of progress. I'm watching it like a hawk and will get back in, depending on the terms of the Dundas funding, in particular, the amount of equity dilution. I no longer see the benefit in being a long-term investor in any pre-production mining project, often having to wait 3-5 years, with nothing to show except placings and stagnant capital.

If indeed, these shares have now all been sold to institutional investors at 320p, I'm confused why the price has dropped? The only explanations that I can think of are:

(1) PIs have seen the word 'placing' and panic-sold their shares
(2) There's another big seller
(3) Some of the 'diamond-hand' institutional investors are now dumping their shares back onto the market...

From what I can tell, it's because Yanggu Xiangguang Copper is a forced seller. They had some financial liquidity problems mentioned by Bloomberg 2w ago.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-16/china-copper-giant-xiangguang-s-creditors-stop-renewing-loans

You always have to be careful with CPI, because it's a manipulated stock. There are some big players who kick it around like a tennis ball.

@eatstocks, I bought back in last week after seeing a base form after results. I've been in and out of CPI for years. As long as it doesn't tank completely and stop me out, I'll hold until the end of the line or 100p, whichever is first.

Peace? Don't believe a word that these invading killer, rapist wreckers are saying. They've already caused a half trillion dollars of damage. With some luck, their economy will utterly collapse and some common sense will prevail and the Russian people will hang the bastard from a tree, with his pants down.

Oh, and I hope Capita goes up, given that I'm in at 20.6p. Lovely jubbly.

I expect that the rise is being being driven by the buyback - which has a long time to run yet!

"What good is a 5% dividend when the share price drops 2.5% in one day?! Something is very seriously wrong at this company. The BOD need to be replaced or we need a decent takover offer now. This is too painful."

I completely agree.

Something is very wrong here.

I have ZERO interest in a 5% divi, when my investment has lost almost 5% in a week.

I am furious ast this nonsense that they're returning money to shareholders. Weak management need to be removed.

Mkt Cap = £348m
Net Profit (2021 FY) = £225m

At some stage, that's going to start to catch some attention.

****IF**** they can reduce debt by another £100m in Q2 and not manage to lose any major contracts, I think it's better than 50/50 that it's going to get back to 40p, which is 100% upside from here.

****IF**** they managed to become debt-free on a pre-IFRS basis by the end of 2022, like Stuart Morgan keeps banging on that they will (even if I don't believe it), it might get to 60p by year-end.

It now looks like a decent trade, even if the company itself is unloved.

I think it's just the remnants of some II selling. Of course, we have no way of knowing how long that will last.

"I just knew when cane toad bought in, will drop"

Thanks AIM...

I've been burned here before, with my last trade losing 5 figures, but my average is now 20.6 and I'll add potentially some more lower down if it gets there OR I'll exit if fundamentals deteriorate (unlikely, in my view).

Unless something bad happens (also unlikely in my opinion), there's good risk/reward from this level.

"How can a company with locked in multi million pound contracts only have an MCAP of £350m."

Easy. Outsourcing is a low margin business. Revenue means nothing. e.g. Construction is another low-margin business. Costain has a mkt cap of £109m, but revenue of £1.2b.

Conclusion. Revenue means absolutely nothing.

No increase in volume; no rise. Pretty disappointing.

" One show of cobalt or nickel and this isn’t a 10x it’s 100x there and then"

I like to be optimistic, but I reckon there'll still be a chance to jump in before it shoots up 100x... That's just my opinion and I might be wrong! Maybe it would shoot up 25% in the first hour, but if it was going to rise 100x, that's insignificant...

When thinking of the JAY/Dundas valuation, it's useful to look at peers, e.g. Kenmare Resources. That's a producing company with a solid balance sheet, 5y history of profitability, pays a nice divi, reported record results yesterday. But it's just valued on a fwd PE of 3.8. Conclusion: investors are not (currently) prepared to pay a high price for mineral sands miners. Clearly, JAY has a massive upside in several projects.

"The sells are getting desperate"

They look like sells coming from the Interactive Brokers platform, which runs an algo to minimise market impact. That's a platform which is commonly used by fund managers and professional investors. I don't think it's a bunch of small PIs.

Crikey, the sp response hasn't been overwhelming, has it... You'd think with such excellent results and the tightness of supply due to Russia dropping out, there'd be some more interest here...

Great results. Solid plan for handling the increased energy costs. Lots of potential news flow. I'm regretting that I reduced the position size - oh well, I got that wrong.

I feared a large placing for Dundas. Now, they're saying they need to do a feasibility study and a placing for the feasibility study! How long will it take. 6-12m? What's the chance they say it's not feasible? And presumably, there could still be a placing for Dundas itself as Dundas was always expected to have an equity component?

As usual, management get to participate, but everybody else is diluted. I'm struggling to see the benefits of being a 'long-term investor' in this company. I think I'll come back once this thing is fully funded and proven to be feasible.