Member Info for CaneToad

@Ubik_Fresh: Averaging-down is mostly a bad idea, but there are some cases where it makes sense.

One of the few books you'll find that discusses the idea in a serious and sensible way is 'The Art of Execution' by Lee Freeman-Shor.

"You are assuming that Putin will stay in Power."

With some luck, he will be assassinated, but I don't invest based on somebody being assassinated...

The vast majority of the business is in Russia... The business is now being valued with Russian assets at zero.

"There is *no way* that Putin will allow a British compoany to continue holding those."

No would I want to invest in a company with Russian assets...

I'm becoming interested, but it's a falling knife atm. e.g. last four days, the drops are:

29.29%
28.95%
41.66%
13.10%

I'll consider once the share price drops below 37p as I assign zero value to the Russian assets. There is *no way* that Putin will allow a British compoany to continue holding those.

"There will be no divi if this dips below 37p"

Why?

@Genghis: I read these boards, but never rely on them for investment decisions. Yes, I spoke directly to Investor Relations.

I was told that there are no problems. The company would release an RNS if there were. There is no reason for Traxys to break the offtake agreement, but if they did, Kounrad could stockpile the copper and CAML could arrange an agreement with an alternative agent.

I'm not planning to investigate the issue any more.

Good luck.

@DeeJay20: "It also has a current market cap of £430m yet annual revenues of £3bn + so the fundamentals are there."

I don't mean to be critical, but the level of revenue is irrelevant. It's the profit that matters. There are lots of companies that have tiny margins and hence revenues that are huge compared to their market cap. Some of those even are net cash. I'm not going to list them - it is very common in areas such as construction.

I have investigated the offtake agreement and the export route and have spoken to Investor Relations to check some of the details. In summary - there are no problems.

The offtake agreement is with Traxys, which is owned by the Carlyle Group - an American company. The sales are made at the 'mine gate' and any transportation problems are not the business of- or a problem for CAML. The export route to Turkey indeed has a small section through Russia and Georgia, but there are alternative routes e.g. via Turkmenistan.

In summary. CAML does not transport copper. It is sold directly from Kounrad to an American company and they have not experienced problems.

I've been here since early January.

Unless I'm mistaken, HMI has the same number of shares as in 2018, but the share price was at 22p then. While the business is now on a much more solid footing. So I see 100% upside from here at a bare minimum. If you factor in the business progress since then and the Russia situation, there's probably 200% upside without thinking about it too much.

Just to be clear. It is very disappointing in CPI at the moment, but I an expecting to see a recovery this year.

@JG68: NETW is still on a forward PE of 18, which is not cheap. All stocks with high valuations are suffering and shorts have increased. CPI on the other hand is on a forward PE of just 4.4. It's a very different situation.

Shorts increased; I'm still watching this, but only from the sideline. Too dangerous for me to re-enter until shorts disappear. Very difficult to believe that this type of behaviour is legal, but it is what it is and the FCA seem to be clueless to stop it.

@JG68: "Anyone actually starting to feel that they will never recover their losses?."

I have a large position here. I would have exited long ago if I thought it would never recover. It does not make any sense to continue holding a psoition that is never expected to recover.

FYI: I *did* exit several other positions, including NETW, which I see as falling a lot from their current levels. Capita should recover strongly if the results are decent. Clearly, it's going to fall very heavily if they're poor.

Results in 1w. It is too dangerous for me to add any more until results are known as it could be a bloodbath if the results are poor. Stuart Morgan needs to go if debt has not been significantly reduced.

@O2B@C: To be fair, it wasn't a great RNS. I didn't see anything positive in it. One of the divestments has fallen through, the other one in dispute and the pre-payment facility extended by another year - why? Something doesn't add up - they should be making money hand over fist at these prices.

From what I see, thermal coal has now doubled in value since the start of 2022. It has risen by 33% today alone. This should have a very positive effect on Q1 profitability.

What guarantee is that a divi will even be paid? That is the question. Why can't they cancel it at the last minute?

I think the main effect here is the FTSE drop-out. That's going to lead to selling from any FTSE trackers.

Regarding Liberum - it's just an opinion... I tend to only pay attention to the consensus average.

"Big drop of more than 5% this morning, it could be funds dropping RMG if they’ve dropped out of the FTSE 100 perhaps?"

Unfortunately, all of the FTSE trackers will sell the share. That's a significant pressure. Then there's the downgrade by Liberum. Damn.

"whats the delay apart from the weather?"

They don't have the money to develop Dundas themselves. It's likely to be a mix of debt and equity. My guess is that the market wants to see funding secured for Dundas and the debt/equity split.