Member Info for CaneToad

I wouldn't mind if it was ordinary short selling. It's not. It's continual. They don't sell the shares once. They come back again and again somehow using an algo.

From what I see, his last purchase was on 20 Oct 2020, when he purchased 300k shares @ 243.07p. This cost him £729k

You'd think that he might buy a few more, now we're at 87p ?

Unless I'm misreading the accounts, the market cap is now below the (reserved) cash. I'm not saying that it's not going to drop further, but I think 76p is unlikely. But hey, Peter Lynch was surprised when he bought Kaiser at $14 and it dropped to $3.

@karlo90: I think I've worked out your angle here; nothing more needing to be said. I'm happy to hang around here and consider adding after a good update.

“ Exxon’s lawyers checked all the Kurdistan oil contracts legality before they entered Kurdistan years ago. ”

I expect that those contracts were all perfectly 'legal' at the time, at least in terms of adherence to Kurdish Law. The problem is that the Iraqi Federal Court has now ruled on the situation, which could effectively mean, that the law has changed... That's the risk of the Middle East.

@JG68. I'm still very positive on CPI as a medium-long-term hold. But CPI is very volatile and I can see a risk to the share price if the results are disappointing. For those reasons, I'm hanging back until I see the results, given that I also have a decent-sized position here (7% of my portfolio). Good luck.

The US is trying to do a deal with Iran. If that comes off, ~1m boepd will hit the market; 1.5m boepd within 3m. Long-term still looks good, but short-term, we're going to see pressure. I think the upside here is substantial - *IF* they can do a good deal with the Iraqi government. All kudistan operators will be under pressure if it drags on for weeks/months/years.

It's a terrible report, but the message is clear.
I'll be happy to buy back once the regulatory picture is clearer.
Good luck.

Forza is back up 14% today, after falling 20% yesterday.
That's positive!

"i am still watching and can't commit to buy yet , one day i will, lol"

It's pretty clear that there are some shorters driving this down. Results are almost a month away it's not going to be a surprise to see it test 110p or maybe even 100p. I'll add once I see good results and an upward trend. There's massive upside here.

@Jstar: "Also wouldn't keep saying profitable, they were only profitable on an 'adjusted basis' in the last set of results"

If you look at both Operating Profit and Net Profit, they have been profitable for the past seven years, exactly as I said. They've never had a strong ROE; it's always been pis* poor. But this year is no worse than the past. If the analyst projections for 2021E and 2022E come to pass, those will be the most profitable years for this company, while the share price is at an historic low. That strikes me as unusual. We're talking about a company with an investment grade credit rating and £1b of (restricted) cash, which is now the entire market cap.

If they were wildly profitable, this would not be priced on a forward PE of 5. That should be blindingly obvious to everybody. We're at the greyhound races here, not a horse race...

I see that @karlo didn't even reply.

@147king: "Not a single day of production will be lost, worst case is contracts will be renewed with some minor amendments."

I agree 90%. That is not the point though. The point is *what the market thinks*.

All Kurdistan operators trade at low pe multiples. That is because of the *perceived* risk. If the *perceived* risk increases, the market is likely to price these at an even lower pe. I doubt that the court decision lowers the *perceived* risk.

@opulentia: "Dont be taken in by a couple of doommongerers"

It's not doom mongering to discuss one of the most significant changes in Iraqi oil policy for 10 years. As I've said many times here, I think it's going to have limited practical conseuences. Perhaps it will lead to a significant re-rate *if* the new situation is recognised by Iraq as well.

My opinion is irrelevant though. The only important thing is what *the market* thinks. The market's opinion was very clear when Forza dropped 20% on the release of that very conservative news release. Very few big investors will be reading this board and many will not have noticed the Iraqi announcement yet - because GKP has said nothing. I expect that to change if they do release a similar RNS.

@opulentia: "Only down due to russis/ukraine effect"

Mainly, yes, but without a doubt, the court ruling is having an effect. Forza Petroleum didn't drop 20% yesterday for no reason. They are identical to GKP. Any similar RNS from GKP could generate a similar outcome.

@karlo90: "ukog where its at today."

In terms of fundamentals, UKOG looks like an absolute dog. It's classed as a 'Sucker Stcok' in Stockopedia. They've lost money 7 years in a row, with the last two years being a wipeout. Looks like a pure pump & dump.

In contrast, TCAP have been profitable for 7 years and have an investment credit rating. Sure, the technicals are terrible and I'm not buying any more until I see good results (15 March).

Yeah, yeah @karlo90, we know there are other shares that have gone up lately, e.g. I3E has been a ripper. But what's the problem here? You've not actually provided any reasons. My expectation is that there are a lot of small shorts here.

@JG: "Markets are completely ignoring any positive news for this company."

Same goes for most UK small/mid-caps.

I agree, if results are poor, this will be sledge-hammered. I'm going to hang on though as I'm in it for the long-haul. Unless management have been lying through their teeth, there are no solvency issues here, debt *should* be reducing and it's already priced for failure.

Yeah, it looks as though it broke that 'solid support' at 134p...

For the benefit of 'us muppets', what's your reason fro being so negative, apart from obviously bad technicals?

In terms of fundamentals, market cap is now equal to cash. The bonds are investment grade and have a very low interest rate. Forward PE is ~5. They've been profitable for past 7y.

@CHRI55: "Really don't understand why people are talking about selling with losses??"

For BOO and ASC (I have large positions), I've not trimmed anything, but generally speaking, I would always cut losses early. This idea that you 'haven't lost anything until you sell' is complete nonsense. Averaging-down, just because the price has dropped is the route to losing huge amounts of money.

I see the price tied to BOO/JOUL, the wider market and the retail sector malaise. I'll not be adding until I see all of those improve. However irrationale it might be, I see the possibility of a re-test of 1200p, given what JOUL and BOO have done.

@Repression: "But this news came out while the market was still open & although GKP dropped today it didn’t appear to be panic selling? Are you afraid GKP may themselves issue an RNS tomorrow?"

I think the most likely outcome is that there's more clarity; that's what's been holding the share prices back for all operators for several years. Most investors in GKP are already battle-hardened and seem to have brushed off this news. Clearly, Canadian investors react differently.