Member Info for CaneToad

@Jstar: If the price drops to 100p, I'll be tempted to add some more, especially if the results are good. It seems that there is huge legal risk. I don't think this is the primary reason for the drops though as no IIs have substantially reduced and it has minimal PI interest.

I'm optimistic about:

- The crypto business
- The 'Parameter' (portfolio compression) business
- Liquidnet?

These three could give the company a new lease of life.

I think the crypto business alone could justify the market cap within a couple of years. Coinbase has a market cap of £28b even after brutal declines.

There's now a huge anomaly with Union Jack Oil (UJO). Its Mkt Cap is now £25m, while (as far as I can tell) it only produces ~700 boepd. I'm not tempted to buy into that - I smell a pump&dump.

SENX appears to be broadly inline with UOG regarding valuation; lots of upside, but kneecapped due to well declines and a lack of any return to shareholders - like UOG.

With $100 oil, I can see our market cap tripling *IF* the company can show that production is stable. It doesn't matter how many new wells they drill if the overall production drops.

I'm tending to agree with the idea that UOG would be attractive to Kuwait Energy. I'm not convinced that any other oilers will make a bid.

@Jstar: I don't think cum-ex will be the end of them. Most funds do solid due diligence before buying, but I see:

- Liontrust Special Situations Fund bought in Dec 21; added again in Jan 22
- Hambro added in Feb 22

Clearly this issue is not worrying the funds. Only one fund has made a modest reduction, while several have added. This is not a popular stock for PIs, so the only conclusion left is that there is a hidden shorter.

@Jstar: So why has not even a single broker downgraded TP ICAP? Pending legal action like this would almost surely influence the target prices - but it hasn't.

Are you saying that they potentially have liability for every claim and they can't get a penny back until they settle with each of those firms and then sue NEX for each and every one? That surely can't be true. If it was, I would say the company is finished. They'll be dragged into endless legal battles.

Something I did notice today, is that the cum-ex architect Hanno Berger has been extradited to Germany for trial.

TP ICAP and Deutsche are being sued for 110m EUR, while the theoretical tax liability to Germany is 8b EUR. I am led to believe that we have an indemnity for the ICAP purchase, but I'm not sure how watertight it is. Any lawyers with knowledge of those matters?

Russia is one of the largest producers of Titanium, so I expect this disaster to be positive for Dundas and probably all of the minerals being targeted by Bluejay. I wonder if it will influence the offer from the US EX-IM Bank to fund Dundas?

@APD: I experienced that on HL, but only when using a Market Order. A Limit Order worked.

I've added to my position with another 60k shares. I cannot understand the disconnect between the valuation and other law firms: DWF, Knights Group, Gateley Holdings, Keystone Law, nor can I understand the current strategy, nor do I like the current management, but if they can eek out some more profitability, I can see it being a good investment over a 1-2y time frame. There are *lots* of IFS here.

@Bridgedog: I'm just stating facts. I'm a long-term holder here. I mentioned the cash vs market cap several days ago. Have a look back at my posting history.

Where's the 'nice support' at 125p?

I've been positive on this stock for a long time, but I recognise manipulation and therefore I have been trying to avoid dumping another large chunk of money into this until it turns. The 5% rise yesterday was a textbook trick that the manipulators have been using to try and bring in more traders; they usually pull the rug soon after and resume the wornward moves. I suspect there's a large, hidden shorter at work.

@NOFEAR, nobody is interested in Capita here.

You know as well as I do that Capita is even further down than Boohoo. And if Capita results are mediocre, it will drop heavily, just like Boo.

I have a large holding in both Capita and Boohoo, so I'm not biased. Man, you must be desperate...

Liquidity has been a problem for a while here. It has definitely improved over the past 6m, but is still occasionally a problem. If you look at the latest company report, you'll see the following on page 13 under the Near-Term Objectives: 'Continue to enhance trading liquidity'

https://atalayamining.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/2022.01-ATYM-Investor-Presentation-vF.pdf

It's not a problem with the broker - it's a problem with the stock. It all depends on the time of day/market. I fully appreciate that there is *usually* good liquidity, but I'm interested in seeing good liquidity in bad times - that's the best measure of liquidity and the one that I'm most interested in.

The rise looks like a trap that has been played out many times on this stock. I hope I'm wrong, but have seen these 5% intra-day rises many times on the slide down. I suspect they're being set to catch technical traders with tight stops. I'm happy to wait until results on 15 March.

Yeah, I also emailed them several times. I pointed out the algos etc. that were systematically manipulating the share price. I also got angry.

Unfortunately, it made ZERO difference.

The FCA is completely toothless and rarely ever investigate anything. It's a very sad state of affairs.

e.g. with a mandatory lowball offer?

@erratum, what is your view on the two Biles taking this private?

Surely that must be entering their mind.

OK, got it, the Refinitiv data I'm looking at must be wrong.

If the share price does not improve after the completion of the Arden fiasco, I would not be surprised to see a takeover offer.

Adrian Biles only has 11%, John Biles has 2%. I can see some value for one of the other legal firms if they can remove the current board and refocus the company.

To be fair, JAY is being hit on multiple fronts.

1) The market sentiment, Ukraine etc.

2) The lack of news/progress

3) Lack of interest in mineral sands miners. e.g. Kenmare (Titanium and Zircon) is also seeing no interest. They're on a forward PE of 3.4.

4) Most miners are weak at the moment. Look at Rio Tinto, they announced record profits/dividend today, but the stock is *DOWN*...

@AngerSharz: I agree that 10% is not a realistic wage rise. It's not going to happen. It's an indication of the sensitivity of the profitability with respect to wage rises. I think 2-5% could be a realistic increase though and that alone would have nasty consequences. Anyway, in my opinion RMG is so cheap that a lot of that is already factored in. On every metric I look at, RMG is cheap and rock-solid and it looks better than it ever did in the past. I'm currently a holder and I'm probably going to continue holding as I only have a modest (2%) position. I'll hang back adding any though, until I see the vampires depart - I'm hoping that they get a stake driven through their hearts...