Member Info for CaneToad

@CAINO: you are not the owner of this board, nor the moderator, so please cease askign people to leave or I, along with others will have you removed.

@CAINO: I have 1 account. I posted in good faith. Why do you feel the need to insult people. I made an error and have asked for it to be removed. Get a life.

OK; so nobody knows...
My guess is that PW will let the share price run up some more and then do a raise.
For that reason, I'm going to stay small in ARB until it's clear what's going on.
A raise at this level looks very painful.

@poorinvestor: "Hahaha Toad, You were waiting for $10,000, now you are a large shareholder lol."

Looks like I was wrong. That happens a lot. In trading, you don't need to be right to make money. You need to get used to being wrong and quickly move on from it. The action has been in oil stocks for the past two months, not crypto. With the exception of the past 2w, I can't see any good setups here.

Crypto looking up/maybe time to increase my ARB holding. But one nagging question: how are we going to pay for the miners for Helios? Not wanting to start a flame war, but interested in informed opinions. Maybe a stupid question, but I don't care.

@davethehorse: "Someone selling but also someone buying in the background I think."

Crikey. All I see forf this morning is one trade: A tiny sell. I can't see much buying or selling in this share. I don't get it.

Geez, what a bunch of grumpy a*ses!
I'm just trying to produce a forecast from the wells and understand a bit more about the geology and timeline.
My production forecast pre-results was spot-on and I didn't hear even one of you admit it.

Seems as though they're finally starting to talk about their crypto platform. I can see it contributing decent revenue and perhaps new investors if that business takes off. I wonder how long it's going to take get FCA approval?

I can see tremendous upside here if the results are decent. In the meantime, we continue down.

Anything is possible. But I've not seen any evidence of a fund raise. Apart from 'feeling it', what evidence do you see?

They should still be net cash after the building sale. Furthermore, Connie has a huge holding here and I can't see her diluting her own holding unless it's absolutely necessary.

@Sms1: "Bailing out doesnt sound like a plan."

Mate, the key to successful trading is keeping losses small and gains large (reward/risk > 1). That's the most important thing. If you understand that, and if you can achieve a reasonable win rate and can identify a breakout, know how to size a trade, then maybe with some help of fundamentals /technicals, you'll end up a profitable trader, if you're lucky.

You don't seem to post anything about trading. You just say vague things like you 'know what you're doing' without talking about anything that traders talk about. Go and do some reading.

I'm going to to leave it at that.

I've filtered you now, as I don't see any value in listening to your comments.

Rift/Swan/Hippo: Are you able to make any sense of the H1 guidance? I just read the latest update RNS again:

"Production from Abu Sennan has remained stable through the second part of Q3 and Q4, with net rates of 1,817 boepd recorded at the beginning of September, compared to Q4 2021 average net production of 1,838 boepd."

If that's true, how is it that when we add AJ-13 and ASD-2 at ~150 boepd each, we get a H1 guidance of 1500-1650?

It doesn't add up. This is really critical and it just doesn't make any sense, unless they're factoring in further declines. Just trying to understand WTF the declines are...

@Sms. How can you comment on other people's strategy when you know nothing about it? I asked you basic trading questions and you didn't have a clue. You just boasted about making a six figure amount, but you didn't answer anything about reward/risk, max drawdown, sell rules, trading history. You just say that you 'know what you're doing' etc. That sounds to me like you're gambling rather than trading.

I know perfectly well how CPI has fallen over the years. Why would I care? I wasn't invested then. I would not have traded it then. I've traded in/out of CPI dozens of times as have many people on this board. Some people here combine fundamentals in their trading. Others are purely technical traders. There are lots of successful approaches. I'm interested in hearing about both.

Does anybody have a definitive list of the producing wells and their current production?

Also, the targeted production for the 4 new wells and the approximate timescale. For example, we know that AJ-13 is now online at ~160 boepd. Is that gong to be the peak production?

Also, we know that the water cut issue is supposedly restricted to the 3 wells in the ASH field. What are the production levels and decline rates for the other wells?

Also, will we see improvements by workovers on ASH? how about artifical lift?

@Sms: Well done on doubling your money. I didn't say that I didn't believe you... What I asked you were basic trading questions. They're the only way for somebody to tell if what you're doing is due to skill or luck.

I made £12k profit on Friday on a couple of trades (I3E, GKP), but that's irrelevant and boasting, without knowing my win rate, account size, cagr, drawdown etc.

The most successful trader that I know (Kristjan Qullamaggie) has a win rate of about 35%. That means he loses 2/3 of the time. His CAGR is 255% over 10y. His account size started at $2,500 and it is now closer to $100m... He will happily tell you that he loses most of the time - that's the reality of trading. Hearing about somebody with a very high win rate inevitably means they have no risk control and are just lucky. Most people who made money in 2020 were just lucky, in a rising market.

I have no doubts that they'll drill a pile of new wells this year and probably get oil in most of them. The question is how stable the new wells be and what the production will be in 6m time. Without that, people are only guessing and many investors will depart. It looks like this is a high decline field, prone to water-cut. Maybe I'm wrong and if so, I'd like to hear from people that understand more about the geology of the field.

This stock is similar to SENX. Their share price has suffered in exactly the same way. It's a response to the dramatic production declines they've also experienced; it's not a mystery or a conspiracy. I feel sorry for people with large holdings from a year ago. I've experienced that many times; it's part of the risk of investing in micro caps.

I doubt there are 'naked shorts' like has been claimed. It's just a response to the dramatically reduced guidance. Oilers will suffer even if the guidance is 10% lower, let alone the decline we've seen, which is more like 50%.

@Ginger: Regarding I3, you are right. They diluted shareholders to buy the Canadian fields. But those dilutions were value-accretive and the share price has trippled in the year following that dilution, while UOG has dropped to 1/3. Note that Graham Heath (CFO/founder) has a huge holding and suffered dilution along with PI's. I agree 100% with you regarding their earlier history. I would never have invested in them before they were a producer. FYI. 2y ago, they had no production, just a wildcat. Now they have 20k boepd of very stable production. UOG does not yet have stable production. They need to demonstrate to the market that they can sustain production and generate free cashflow to pass back to shareholders. At the moment, everything they generate has to go back into drilling.

Disclaimer: I'm long UOG, SENX, I3E. I could be 100% wrong.

@Sms: OK, so the CAGR of your account is 30%. How many years is that over/how many trades?

What about Reward/Risk, Win Rate, Max Drawdown, Trading History? I'm always very suspicious without hearing those. e.g. some of the most successful/most profitable traders have win rates 30%-50%. A high win rate can usually be attributed to luck, a short trading history or uncontrolled risk.

@Cacher: I think your comments regarding the pipeline are important. I'd not thought about that aspect much and I think that might explain the stagnation of the share price. I'm expecting them to fix it, in view of them having $150m of firepower available to them later in the year, according to JT.

@Sms: I see you have 18 posts...

Another question:

4) What's your typical Reward/Risk?

@Sms: Clearly there's been a catastrophic destruction of share holder value and long-term holders are unlikely to get back to breakeven.

But I'll reserve judgement until I see the results. Anybody could have seen that this was going to take years to turn-around. Some investors/speculators got in too early and were too optimistic, but to be fair, I don't think the CPI Board can be blamed for that.

Sometimes, the market can get it wrong. That happens all the time, e.g. Peter Lynch's Kaiser Industries story.

Regarding your trading expertise. Well done. But that figure is meaningless without some more info:

1) How long you've been trading / how many trades per year
2) What's your typical win rate?
3) What's your CAGR?

Sms1: Good luck with your trading.

In my experience, if CPI results have any hint of negativity whatsoever, the share will crash 25% or more. It will be a bloodbath. Because they've been doing this turnaround for some time now, I would not be surprised top see a 25-50% drop if the results are poor. If results are good, I'd expect to see 10-20% rise within a few days.

FYI: I have a large long position in CPI. I'm stating what I seen in the past, having traded CPI for a couple of years. Not trying to scare anybody off.