Member Info for CaneToad

NETW came in at #6 this time (6'th most shorted stock in UK).

https://www.cityam.com/cineworld-hammerson-and-boohoo-the-top-10-most-shorted-uk-stocks-and-fund-managers-with-the-most-positions/?utm_source=izooto&utm_medium=push_notifications&utm_campaign=Top%2010%20shorted

"Makes me wonder whether there are any undeclared short positions on TE"

They only need tiny short positions to produce serious drops and these shorts don't need reporting when they're under the threshold. For example, the shorts on Royal Mail are less than 1%, but they've managed to produce a 15% drop. They do it be recyling the shares over and over again. It's not just the single selling of a share... It's an algo.

That's a very misleading article. A naive reader would think that everything's great, when they totally omit the future guidance, which is massively down on last year. The company valuation depends on this *future* production. The only thing that has gone up massively lately is their own salaries. In the meantime, *I* am down another 12.5% on my investment, because the market has seen through the BS.

"We may well see duals to the death at the bread aisle in Aldi CT."

That may be so. More likely we'll see a bunch of companies downgrading earings massively; I worry about bitcoin miners, unless they have very long-term power agreements. Expect electricity prices to double or triple for companies; maybe higher.

@FX_Wizard: "my own view is that they won't be meaningful as it will kill the economic recovery stone dead. I think inflation numbers will start to soften after April"

There's no way they can increase rates by much. The USA owes $30t, so if rates were to rise to 3.33%, the annual interest bill would be $1t, which the USA can't afford. Conclusion: interest rates will not rise to 3.33%. It's that simple. The Fed will no doubt raise rates a little bit and pretend to be serious about inflation, but there's only one direction for inflation. *the* strategy is to inflate away the debt. That's the only way they can repay it.

Aybody who thinks that inflation will soon moderate needs to look at the coming effects of oil and gas prices. They will drive up the electricity price very dramatically, which will impact every business - very dramatically. That will cause prices to rise, which will cause more inflation. It's only just starting. No way is it going to moderate by April. In 1y from now, electricity prices in the UK, will have doubled. It's a similar situation in most countries.

BTC. There've been some nice setups for day traders (I'm not), but I don't see anything to suggest that the downward trend has reversed. At the moment, it's still a falling tide. Looking at the individual waves crashing onto the beach doesn't say anything about the direction that most of the water is flowing - OUT.

@GH. I agree, we're only guessing. It could have been up and down like a yoyo for all we know. But the result is the same. Current production is now 1500-1650, even with AJ-13. That means, without AJ-13, we'd have been 50% lower than a year ago. And even with all the drilling, we're not keeping up.

If his claim of 2,000 boepd was true, then my next question would be, why has it now dropped to 1500-1650, even after AJ-13 was added? Has there been another decline? I think the more likely explanation is that Q4 was 1300-1450.

I'm OK with modest variation/decline, but this is all over the place and has a major impact on valuation.

Here it is (26 Nov 2021):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwLRFN8i5h4&t=67s

"In Egypt we have a producing business which we acquired in 2019 from Rock Hopper. We're currently producing approximately, just over 2000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. "

@JG: markets are very weak atm.

The only area that has made me any money lately is energy, financials and some miners. I shut my eyes when scrolling down through the rest of my portfolio...

Additional Comment:

"Sales volumes from Kestrel were lower than expected during 2021. This shortfall is expected to be recovered during the first half of 2022 and delays the period in which mining moves away from our private royalty land by a further quarter. With stronger coking coal prices at the beginning of this year compared to last, this bodes well for earnings in 2022."

What really distubrs me is that I asked him directly about the statement in that video and he had the opportunity to say, 'hey, I made an honest mistake'. But he didn't say anything. He just blathered on about how great things were. As he's done again today!

He needs to make an announcement to that effect. You can't make misleading statements like that.

Generating cash for the management - yes. Generating absolutely zero for ordinary shareholders.

(apologies) I meant, did he say anything about the 2,000 boepd, from the video.

Did Brian saying anything about this nonsense 1,000 boepd claim he made in the video?

I'm really surprised that people aren't asking this.

If AJ-13 *IS* included in the new guidance, we see that the implied Q4 production was roughly 1,300-1,450 because all of the other figures were known before the AJ-13 success. This assumes the midpoint AJ-13 figure of 199 boepd.

That is a heck of a reduction from 2,730 in H1.

OK, so AJ-13 is not included?

I'm trying to match the guidance against the implied Q4 number. I can't see him mention the *achieved* Q4 figures anywhere..

i.e. the one reported to have started production , RNS: 13 Jan 2021?

Nice graph, showing the performance of Cobalt over the past year:

https://twitter.com/FirstClassMetal/status/1486356280251985922/photo/1

Even better than the rare earth metals and copper. Very few people realise that APF is now a play on cobalt.

FYI; 'targeting', 'we hope', 'we plan' don't cut the mustard. I only want to hear, 'we have XYZ'