Member Info for CaneToad

@Insider: "Bit like buying bitcoin or arb at 3 quid in the last year?? You really lost 75% on gold?"

Did you buy gold back in 2011? As I mentioned to you, it took almost ****10 years**** to breakeven from there. Funny that nobody called that a 'gold winter'. Note: when gold dropped only modestly from the high last year, gold miners were absolutely hammered; e.g. they dropped by ~50%. Sound familiar?

I have gold and gold miners, but I can assure you that they are not going anywhere fast at the moment. There's no guarantee that gold will rally. It's all down to sentiment. People get excited when gold moves by 0.5%... It's up by 0.02% today.

I heavily traded gold miners and crypto last year. The profits from crypto dwarf those from the gold. That was my experience. If I lose 100% of my current crypto investment, I'll still be ahead.

I don't know anybody that's made money trading gold in the past 6m; except perhaps if you were trading butterfly options...because the price has gone absolutely nowhere.

@K3VMC: I think you're right, that credit cards have more fraud on the normal scale. But the 'criminals' are 10 steps ahead. They've worked out that they can make money by straightforward manipulation, which is not a crime for BTC, as it's not subject to regulation... and by having the exchange in a remote jurisdiction, there's nothing authorities can do.

BTC Exchanges are 'Bucket Shops' from Jesse Livermore days!

The bitcoin price is determined by a linked network of bucket shops!

It is what it is. I'm not an idealist. I still trade it.

Aim - I hope you 60p purchases works out.

My own average sucks and I'm 50% down on a modest position. Luckily (luck always plays a role) I scaled back from large positions many months ago (15% of portfolio) and I currently only hold 3% in total crypto.

"who was ramping MARA and RIOT"

I wouldn't touch MARA, but RIOT will be my first miner to add to. It's dropped even more than ARB (as of Friday) and has MUCH higher volume; >10x relative volume.

I wouldn't shoot him no. Probably just give him a mean stare...

I think that's a highly dodgy question to ask people. Like going up to desperate guy in Vegas and asking him how much he just lost. You'd probably be shot dead outside...

Everything is relative to yoru entry price. If ARB drops to 10p, how you going to fewel having paid 62p?

Seeing the amount of money being spent by bankers is one of the reasons I'm confident that BTC will bounce back stronger...Bankers don't want the criminals taking everybodies money - they want it themselves. Disclaimer: I was a banker for 20y...

"I think saylor is the architect of this downturn."

Romanian Mafia, Triad,... more likely. Crypto must now be the most lucrative activity going for gangs. Move money directly from joe ordinary into their own pockets and keep that going for a decade!

I think that Saylor's average price is $30k, so that's going to be pivotal, but this is now tied to nasdaq and he can't hold up the market single-handed. Personally, I think this will eventually play out in the $10k-$20k. I think ARB is heading much lower, somewhere in 10p-40p.

@HarChris: totally agree with your comments on Saylor. That does not look good. He's too biased and has too dodgy a history with the SEC. And the SEC have now told him to cease using the accounting treatment he's been using. Clearly, with ordinary accounting, the results would have scared his investors shi*less as BTC drops. It could start to look like a re-run of Dot Com for Micro Strategy. I might even open up a short on MSTR, via a Put option.

"Owch. I think the crash has happened Chaebol."

I hope you're right, but I think nasdaq has hardly started. It's only 10% down from the ATH. Once it goes (**if** it goes), the real panic will set in and drag almost everything with it. I expect that most tech stocks are heading down at least to levels of 2y ago. 10p-40p range for ARB I think.

Incredible opportunity here if guidance is decent.

Market is crashing heavily; almost everything is down.

Useful article - many thanks.
That sounds impressive, 22%*14000=3080. Much higher than I expected.
I wish they'd just release some guidance.

@flowerpot: I agree with your sentiment though. I'm concerned if ARB has to do a capital raise at this level. It's going to be very painful for existing investors. I'm not selling anything, but I'm reluctant to add more ARB until there's some clarity, unless it really tanks (10p-40p) and then I might just trade it to get out on the next bounce. I'm adding to RIOT first.

@flowerpot. It's not just miners. Half of nasdaq has been on this trajectory since Feb 2021. I only really mnoticed over the past week. I'm opening some puts on ARKK later today. Maybe even a put on RIOT, more as a hedge/short-term opportunity as I also hold RIOT and don't want to sell. ARB is too illiquid, so I have no plans of opening anything short on ARB and volumes are quite low on ARB.

I have no fuc*ing idea, but maybe $30k will be it; at least Crypto Chris seems to agree and he's a decent technician.

Obviously, I meant $30k...

Looking like we could hit £30k today; bring it on. As they say. 'The quicker you flush, the quicker somebody else can come in and use the bathroom''...

@Insider: Gold entered a bear market in 2011. People who invested at the top had to wait until July 2020 to breakeven. Gold is not without risks. No commodity is. Gold is still much bigger than crypto, but without a doubt, crypto has stolen a lot of the interest. If not for crypto, gold would have already hit a new ATH.

The nice thing about BTC is that the bear markets don't last that long. Once this flush has been done, institutions will enter and they'll want to see it rising nicely again within a year. They'll ensure that happens. The industry is growing amazingly. Sure - there will be more regulation, that's probably also good for the BTC.