Member Info for CaneToad

@wtb201: FYI. Many thanks to all the valuable info you're posted.

@wtb201: "Costs are so low that if the gas price were to completely crash Kistos will still make a profit, while everyone else in the North Sea will be loss-making."

Are you including Serica in your statement? I think you'll find that they are profitable even at very low gas prices... and they have zero debt.

@investor81: "One key point to note is Kistos has Andrew Austin. Delivered previously with RRE, delivering with KIST and has a lot of money invested in KIST."

I completely agree. Seeing him onboard was 50% of my decision to invest.

"According to a report today noted by Goldman Sachs, De Beers implemented one of its most aggressive diamond price increases in recent years owing to the recent high demand for uncut gems. Prices were increased 8% in its first sale of the year."

https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/48521-buoyant-jewellery-sales-help-drive-further-easing-in-petra-diamonds-financial-outlook/

It's looking to me like PDL has been significantly de-risked today. I would hope that this starts to attract more investors over the coming months (note how I've said 'months' - I don't expect all of the problems to be solved in the next 15 minutes...)

In terms of production, Kistos has 12,700 boepd with market cap of £340m; there is only one set of accounts and those show a loss of £4m, while i3E has production of about 20,000 boepd, made a £12m profit in the past year, paid its first divi, 'promised' a divi of at least 8% for the coming year, also has exploration upside, also has its founder with all of his net worth invested, but has a market cap of £163m...

I'll probably add another tranche of Kistos today, but I don't currently see it as anywhere near the opportunity of I3E. I expect it's mainly risen on momentum and the reputation of its founder, so far.

@CAINO: I completely agree. That's a silly metric. It was just a back-of-envelope comparison. I'm just very wary of hype. I prefer to go on guidance/revenue/profitability/histrory as metrics.

I don't know anybody at Stockopedia. I just get surprised by ignorant people making comments about things which they've never tried. I would say that using it increased my profitability by 6 figures in the past year. It's what allowed me to quickly identify a handful of producers that have gone on to 3x, without having to spend hours on 50+ companies. I know several fund managers that use it.

@parnas: I think that's possible. It's going to depend on whether or not the management grasp what's going on and revert to building the business for the shareholders. Or whether they even care. Revenue has grown nicely, but profits are nowhere to be seen.

My understanding is that ELIX will eventually result in the production of copper completely onsite. I'm going to fire off an email to the company to check and I'll report back here.

It looks like they're starting with the processing of a small chunk of the full production. I think that's a sensible thing to do, in case there are problems in scaling it up.

Indeed, seeing Andrew Austin's holding, that is a huge plus.

@Surfit: Huge thanks.

As a back-of-envelope calc, SQZ looks slightly cheaper on a barrels of oil equivalent per £1m market cap. Serica: 44, vs Kist: 37. (i.e. for Serica, each £1m buys 44 boe/d production). Clearly each company has different profiles and exploration upside. I also like the Kist management record, so I'll probably take a starter position.

@Rifteastafrica: Please don't take what I'm saying as negative...as mentioned, I was the largest buyer on the day of the recent RNS and it is only a tiny position so far. The volume was quite poor. I'll be happy to load up if I see solid guidance. Agree 100% with your oil price comments, but that is also true for every other oiler - i.e. almost every US/CA oiler has been skyrocketing for months.

Agree 100% that UOG is one of the cheapest oilers around. There are some others that are also 'cheap' though, e.g. I3E and they're already committed to 8% divi...

@YoungJun: "Gas not oil where the money is at just now."

You clearly haven't been in many oil companies over the past few months... BP, I3E, GKP and literaly every US/CA oiler...

OK, you say that Kistos production is currently 12,700 boe/d. Presumably there's an RNS giving that figure somewhere.

I think Serica was doing ~28,500 in Nov 2021 with Mkt Cap £645m, while Kistos Mkt Cap is £340m, but with less than half the production? What gives?

About the only negative thing that I currently see is that the RSI is now heavily overbought (@78 on the daily chart).

@Jing72: "I agree with you sidi and the rise does seem to suggest that there could be some news on the horizon"

I could be wrong, but from the look of it, all of the tobacco companies are now rising. I don't think this rise is specific to IMB.
Oil and Banks are also rising steeply. It looks like a major shift in the markets is underway.

I took a small position here last week.

Have now done more research and from what I see, the main TOBACCO companies (MO, BATS, IMB, PM) are all rising steeply now. PM and MO are already significantly more expensive on a P/E basis, with IMB being the cheapest. I think it's time to increase my position size here. Divi looks solid if I get stuck with it.

Agree 100% that this looks fantastic ****IF**** 2022 guidance is good and shows the decline being managed.

Not even one (1) person has commented on my guidance estimate. Is somebody here apart from me that understands that UOG were producing 2,730 boe/d in H1, while Q1 guidance is likely (on published numbers) to be 1,058 - 1,939.

I think that the current share price is ridiculous, but there clearly is a correlation between the current production and the 2/3 share price decline.

Happy to hear of better guidance estimates. Have no interest in blind ramping...

Anybody able to explain in simple terms (like you were explaining to a labrador or a child) why BLU is worth so much?

I've looked at BLU several times after seeing THEEDUKE etc. invested. Clearly this looks like an early-stage ARB and might 10x from here, but my tiny brain is unable yet to see the opportunity, apart from the hype... Is the market cap mostly based on the SatoshiPay stake?

You guys clearly have never used a filter.... If you're investing in UK, US, CA stocks, you'd have thousands of companies. Stocko is a good first filter. Clearly you always have to dig deeper for fast moving opportunities. FYI. I came across KIST in the Berenburg discussion which I found in Stocko...

Why is Stocko rubbish? They just present the LSEG/Refinitiv data?

For stable companies, they're usually spot-on. For rapidly evolving companies, it's usually out of date, but I wouldn't call it rubbish if the company fails to update Refinitiv with the real balance sheet...

Looking at the Corporate Presentation, (Production Forecast Overview), it looks like the 2022 guidance is for ~8,000 boe/d. 2023 guidance looks like ~28,000 boe/d. While Market Cap is £340m. From memory, I3E guidance is ~20,000 boe/d, while market cap is £156m and they're promising at least 8% divi.

I'm missing something here. KIST is more than twice the market cap of I3E, but has less than half of the current production.

Have come across this a few times, but never invested. I see today that Berenberg likes it...

So tell me. Why is it worth so much? Based on Stockopedia, I can't see any revenue, though there's an estimate of £71m for 2021 FY. Forward P/E looks like 39.2. Pretty expensive. Why is this better than Serica, I3E, GKP etc, which all make solid revenue and are dirt cheap?

What am I missing here?

Not meaning to be negative. Will do some more research if it looks vaguely interesting.