Member Info for CaneToad

I'll be hanging back to see what happens with the results. This share is under heavy attack by shorters who are determined to collapse the share price. I'll be adding once I see: (1) the shorters depart and (2) a sustained upward move

Crypto stocks are having a bad time at the moment, but it could eventually bring in some more investors.

@Chuz: "We just need Mr putin to get nord 2 over the line and the energy costs will plummet."

I think that's a long way off.

Disclaimer: I'm heavily invested in natural gas producers ...

@Chuz - nice comments regarding your ETH mining.

One thing that I'm starting to wonder about is electricity prices. They'll be going through the roof over the next 6-12m. Natural gas prices has quintupled over the past year and that's going to hit mining profitability in some locations. I appreciate that ARB probably has cheap, renewable energy - hopefully, on a long-term, fixed-price supply contract.

Daily volume for MNTO is now about 1,000 shares, which is about ~£1,600. Market cap of Minto has fallen about 15%.

In terms of liquidity, Minto has become even less liquid than it was with PERE.

ARB looks like a great opportunity at this level, but there are two very serious problems:

1) Where the money comes from to fit out Helios; a capital raise at this share price will be painful. A raise looks more likely now, because any loan against the HODL reduces proportionally as BTC drops. And with BTC dropping and interest rates rising, it looks increasingly unlikely that they'll be unable to issue too many more bonds.

2) The bear trend in BTC. There is a chance of Sweden banning bitcoin mining. If that happens, there could be further EU pressure to ban it other countries. That will be terrible PR.

I'm holding at my current level until I see at least one of those resolved.

It makes me laugh when a broker cuts a target price by 2%.

I've rarely ever known broker targets to be more accurate than 10-20% and on AIM stocks, more likely the accuracy is more like 20-50%. To cut by 2% shows complete ignorance...

I'm also looking to take a punt here. From what I can tell, the market cap is supported by the Water Business and Bank of Georgia alone. Clearly they need to do more marketing of the company to UK investors, but if they declare a decent dividend and/or do a chunky share buy-back, perhaps that will help. I've already been an investor in BGEO and TBC.

In the Nasdaq composite, the vast majority of stocks are now below the 200d MA (2345 below/1298 above).
That's not FUD. It's fact...

This drop is nothing to do with Kazakhstan. It's simply due to risky parts of the equity market selling off after the Fed announcement and its lead-up for several months.

When Nasdaq crashed back in 2000, it dropped ~85% and took more than *15y* to recover. Many stocks never recovered. That's no FUD. It's fact. That's why 'traders' (in contrast to gamblers) are not jumping in to buy everything until they see a turn around - they don't want to be annihilated if it keeps following the *trend* that it's been following for several weeks now. ARB could very easily revisit the lows of 1y ago. There's no law of physics preventing that. That's not FUD. It's fact.

There's 100% upside in most of the miners, just to get back to Nov levels, so there's plenty of timne to get back in. I can't see BTC or miners recovering until Nasdaq does, now that BTC is basically like a 5x leveraged ETF on the tech sector...

Yeah, it's going to be an epic ride back - I'm itching to add some, but there's no point, when it's dropping literally every day. 80p looks 'cheap' now, but maybe 70p will be cheap on Monday and 60p still cheap by Friday, etc... I don't think there's a bottom with a speculative asset like BTC as the intrinsic value is possibly zero...

Back to the Jan price.
Nasdaq has only just started to correct, so my guess is that miners will go significantly lower than this.
I could be wrong, but am standing back until the dust settles.

@dusty42: From what I can see, almost all of the Kestrel production should have been at 15% royalty for the past 6m.
Given that Kestrel makes the biggest contribution and that coal is rising again, this looks encouraging for the Q4 update. Surely they must be making record profits. Then there's Voisey's Bay, which is starting to become significant.

I read this 'independent' research and I thought it was quite positive.

I guess it was done to support the project financing roadshow and while not 'independent', it looks to be balanced.

It's disappointing that Dundas is still 2+ years away, but I was bouyed by the 'meaningful' management fees which are supposed to start in 2022 (this year). Anybody able to guess how much income we're talking about? Surely we're talking about >$1m/year? which could slow the cash-burn to a sustainable level until Dundas is generating income.

The near-term catalysts that I see are:

- Announcement regarding the receipt of management fees from Rio Tinto and Metal One
- Dundas funding signed
- Progress on other projects

My gut feeling is that Dundas funding would occur in H1 and possibly Q1. It's just a guess and could be frustratingly wrong.

Financials/Energy are moving up in the US/UK. From the look of it, NETW is following Financials. Some other old dogs, including TCAP and all the m,ajor banks are doing the same. I'll feel more confident if the shorts decrease though. I can't see this share going anywhere far with those shorts hanging around. In terms of balance sheet health, it looks to me like it's improved and I see limited financial risk at the moment.

I could be 100% wrong. Do your own research.

Very likely.
The Brits don't know what a real crash is - they're too sensible.
Nasdaq dropped 85% back in the dot com crash. People forget that it took more than 15y to recover from that... If anybody thinks that this is the main drop, they need to look at history and the charts.

Wait until UK people see the price rises for electricity/gas in a few months time. They're going to dwarf the rises in Kazakhstan. CAML investors are amongst the most boring/stable investors so I'm hanging on and will buy more if it drops significantly.

@Chaebol: well done on the puts.

I was shocked by the Saylor story. To have that guy talking to PW publicly and the face of BTC is not a good thing. I've tried hard to avoid thinking that it's a ponzi scheme, but that started to make me question the whole thing. e.g. Does MS sell BTC as quickly as he buys?

I think BTC and miners will bounce back, but I'm not smart enough to know how low it's going to go. No way I'll be buying until Nasdaq itself bottoms as I expect any nasdaq drop will take 6m and people were annihilated back in 2000 when they started buying after the initial drops, thinking it was an 'opportunity'. As a trader, I see no reason whatsoever why ARB could not revisit the level of 1y ago within 6m.

Anybody read about what happened to Michael Saylor during the Dot Com crash? How much his company fell? I think it was something like 99%. It lost $6b in value. That's why I'm not of the opinion that everything crypto will 'bounce back'. Happy to be a buyer, once a bottom is found, but I will not be surprised if altcoins drop 99+% and BTC - who knows.

@InsiderKnowledge: "Anyone think of any other theories why arb sells off even when bitcoin isn't?"

All miners: bitcoin/gold/coal/copper/... behave roughly like a call option on the underlying commodity. So it's more the future value of the commodity, rather than the current value. That explains why gold mining stocks are so low, even though gold itself is still sitting just below the ATH. Bottom line: people are maybe thinking that BTC is going lower. Nobody knows for sure - it's all guesswork.

I could be 100% wrong. Do your own research.