Member Info for CaneToad

This is why you should NEVER, EVER take anything on these boards too seriously. EVERYBODY here has an agenda. They're NOT interested in YOU.

Let's hope BTC rallies soon.

See ya.

I remember @K3VMC asking if I knew as much about BTC as Michael Saylor - to which my response was ***NO***... He's a billionaire after all. But it's even more interesting!

Here's an old article on how his company very quickly lost 99.9% of its value and how his investors lost 95% of their capital:

https://cryptowhale.medium.com/heres-why-michael-saylor-is-bitcoin-s-ultimate-snake-oil-salesman-fa75b0691761

My prediction is that MS will be buying more BTC! Let's hope he's not selling them just as quickly through another conduit... Somebody is!!!

@mhudson: "A million shares dumped at the bell"

It's likely that there'll be a technical pullback now. It happens like clockwork once RSI rises too quickly and hedge funds take advantage of it... I already locked in my profit from my 'divi' trade and will add back in another 3-4 trading days.

Happy New Year!

I think it's just the general UK market in mid/small caps. People forget that even in the US, most stocks in the SP500 are now significantly below their 200 MA with the index being held up by a handful of stocks. It's not what it seems.

PDL has also done nothing in the past few months.

I've used it as a time to load-up and am still positive longer-term.

@Chuz: "Yea I have the same thoughts when I read posters here saying about how they are not bothered about a raise and it will pop back up..."

I give a ballpark chance of 90% of a large raise in the next 3m. I'm hanging on though. It all depends on your position size and risk-tolerance. I'd only be nervous if my average was >150p and I had a full-size position.

All miners have to continually do raises. That's the business model... It's non-stop. That's not changing. It's almost guaranteed that ARB will do another raise soon.

BTC/miners are 'greed assets'. It might take some time, but greed isn't going anywhere long-term. It's going to be back even bigger next year. As soon as BTC pops, people will double/triple/quadruple their position sizes and ARB price will explode.

I could be wrong...

@Dalcan: "I would be very cautious in investing in General Insurers like Aviva right now."

I completely agree.

I invested in Avia last year after the crash, but would not touch it or any of the others at the moment. It's not a strong company on fundamentals, but is almost back to its pre-covid price on much weaker revenue/profit. RMG is the exact opposite. It's been a dog in the past, but is finally quite solid, with revenue/profits very strong and significantly above pre-covid.

@Teamlh: "if u have a spare 40k u want to look after it not gamble ,Aviva or l&g would be a safer home"

Please try not to give advice in these boards... You don't know the people, the size of their accounts or their circumstances. You have no idea what percentage of an account is represented by £40k. It could be 100% or just 1%...

AVIVA is nowhere near as strong on the balance sheet as RMG. That is a fact. There's no comparison whatsoever. I have invested in them in the past (March last year), but there a shadow of RMG at the current time. Same goes for L&G.

Without going into too many details, look at Stockopedia:

Quality/Value/Momentum/StockRank
RMG: 95/92/93/99
AVIVA: 18/83/67/55
LGEN: 25/92/93/83

You'll notice the Quality is 18 for AVIVA, which is poor/weak. LGEN is also quite poor at 25. Furthermore, Revenue and Net profit for AVIVA are *significantly* below pre-covid, while it is significantly above pre-covid for RMG. And the broker forecast for AVIVA is limited upside of ~13%, while for RMG it's 30%.

All investing is a form of gambling, but based on the *facts*, RMG is a safer company at this point in time.

@NewKOTB: "ps Even with the super low NBP spot price of 8p/therm in 2020 when average market gas price was approximately 25p/therm SQZ still made a healthy post tax profit."

So Serica's break-even cost is lower than 25p/therm?

@Teamlh: "it was a once in a lifetime chance do do so ,that's kind of behind us now"

The markets were indeed looking grim over the past few months for UK small/mid-caps, but it's looking like a bottom might/maybe has now formed. Some sectors of the market have come alive again and there's lots of stuff now moving and some very good trades to be had. On the other hand, if the market tanks, it's hard to think of a safer stock than RMG.

Yeah, total crap... I bought £40k worth a few 'minutes' after the divi RNS, after also trading it a few times in the weeks leading up. In addition to the £2100 divi now locked in, my position is already back in profit and I aim to squeeze 10-20% capital gain over the next month or two. It's a nice technical rise on good fundamentals. If it drops significantly, I'll add another £40k to average-down as this business is now rock-solid.

Just look at the fundamentals: Stock Rank of 99 in Stockopedia says it all.

@MrCarats: "Good companies don't stay on the AIM market to long if they have good fin"

How about CAML and ATYM?

They are both AIM mining companies. They both pay a nice dividend and have strong balance sheets. They're also excellent value. Clearly PDL is nothing like either CAML or ATYM, but I'm just pointing out some counter-examples to your argument...

@AimMaster: "the same people who bought in before the results are the ones saying they haven't lost a penny on this share.."

Geez man, you just don't let up. How clear do I have to make myself? I don't care about Capita or any other company. I just trade them to grow my account. I restrict my posts to factual content - good or bad. If good short positions arise, then I do those as well, though I'd never short CPI as the risk/reward doesn't work. I've traded it many, many times and made money every time. I don't care if you believe me or not... Clearly I'm currently underwater on my long CPI position. That's par for the course when investing in companies like this. It is of zero concern to me. It's not unusual. You make money on shares like CPI by having the patience of a buddhist monk. If CPI sells businesses at a loss, once again - I do not care......... I also do not care if CPI were to launch a new businesses selling firecrackers or condoms.... You get it?

2019 and 2020 were already profitable, when 2021/Q1 price was $34, so at $50 (~50% increase), they should do well.

The share price was close to 30p in late 2019, while profitability was significantrly lower then, so draw your own conclusions.

JT: "I don't think the market understands yet how significant the rise in coking coal and cobalt prices are for the company," Treger said."

That's what Revenue Guidance is for... He shouldn't blame the market. Anyone able to make a stab at the implications? I expect it's not trivial as there's some gearing that comes into play.

I thought it was a solid RNS. It looks to be in agreement with my assumption and view here regarding the operating profit and banking covenants. I expect some funds will jump in now as this de-risks things considerably.

It's definitely undervalued and if 2022/Q1 guidance looks good, I'll dip more than my toe in.

Solid news about the well result.
Will hold back adding significantly until I hear Q1 guidance.

@Snip: Have a look at how mining companies move. e.g. VALE was $2.60 back in 2016, $22 in Jun and is now back at $14. That's one of the biggest mining companies in the world, who pay a 20% dividend... Even BHP/RIO have been hit over the last few months.

JAY has some great assets, but they're not earning any revenue and are incredibly slow to do anything. Without significant news, 4p or lower is possible within a few months.

BTC volume still poor. It's trying hard to rise, but it's getting heavily sold into on every attempt. Somebody is trying very hard to squash it.

@Snip: "I think you give yourself too much credit, you got 1 reply, from myself saying 4p was ridiculous."

JAY was below 4p early last year and there's been no significant development since then. It's just following the normal cycle of a pre-production resources company, with occasionally large spikes, quickly sold into and a steady decline until the next news. Have a look at the rare earth metals miners, e.g. PRE, RBW, etc. and any other pre-production company - they all act the same way after news. The longer the period after the news, the lower the share price will fall.