Member Info for CaneToad

I have a large holding here, but I think it's misleading for anybody to tell others that the price is 'certain' to be restored quickly. Almost every energy company dropped heavily today. It's possible that a pattern is starting to emerge. There's no 'certainty' that stocks will do anything. I3E and other energy stocks could potentially keep dropping over the coming weeks.

If I was a newcomer that was now underwater, I would wait to see what happens rather than average-down OR exit if the price had moved outside my risk-tolerance.

@erratum: many thanks on the comments. Yes, I've been in Manolete before, but I think we've missed the boat on that one for now; it's also becoming expensive on an earnings basis (forward pe: 30). I expect that Ince have a little bit of insolvency work, but I'm in the dark as to how much the core of their business would perform in tough times.

As there are several lawyers on this channel. It would be useful if one of you could comment on how you see earnings & profitability holding up in a recession. I see the share prices for some of the Ince competitors holding quite up well against the market, including: Begbies Traynor, Burford, Gateley and Manolete. While Knights, Keystone and DWF seem to be dropping along with Ince.

It recovered from the low of 5p back to 13p on no news.
But there was new news today - "Claim volumes are now back at the levels previously reported in February". So there's no reason it can't at least sink back to 5p.

My last trade was @ 5.24p. But now the complaints are worse, so I'm thinking 3-5p before results.

@erratum. You have grossly misrepresented what I said. Your version of my statements are materially different to the words that I used.

What I said were the following. They can be easily checked from my recent posting history. Your words are made up!

1) "I wondered if the dividend was prudent or even legal".
I said that, because they had announced that they had maxed their RCF. I don't consider it prudent for company with limited cash to be paying a dividend. According to the Companies Act 2006 a dividend be paid only if there are sufficient distributable profits. It's difficult to determine, hence my use of the word 'wondered'.

2) "Arden itself never being very profitable"
This is a true statement. It is very different to what you claimed that I said.

3) "Trying to be 'right' is lethal in investing"
Go and read a few investment books, e.g. Minervini, where you'll read precisely what I said.

According to Stockopedia, the 12m forward PE is now 13.2. That's quite cheap for a company like this.

I'm expecting the UAE economy to stay strong, given the record oil revenue and am planning to re-enter NETW if it ever stops dropping.

@erratum: You'll do better sticking to facts rather than opinion and hope. Trying to be 'right' is lethal in investing.

Kindly point out a single comment that I have made about Ince, which is not 100% fact, reported on the public record, either by Ince or by reliable sources. FYI: that is the purpose of this channel. I'm interested in hearing FACTS about Ince, whether they be good or bad. You seem to be fixated on reporting your own calculations and opinion and are very touchy when anybody says anything which doesn't fit with your own view. I have my own opinion why that is.

FYI. The fact that the share price is not rising means that your opinion is wrong.

@erratum: I couldn't help returning your 'as I have explained to you numerous times' line. That's good!

Do you even realise that there are people here other than yourself that know something about this company?

@erratum. I'm old-fashioned. I like to see a balance sheet and/or trading update which gives actual levels of cash and/or borrowing headroom. To my knowledge, there has been no such update for months. I never said there had been any breach of any debt covenant. What I said was that they had (many months ago) used up almost all borrowing capacity on their RCF. Do you have proof about the levels of cash they have or is just your opinion?

As I have explained to you numerous times, I don't hold onto falling knives. I get out before a loss becomes significant. As they say, 'you can always get back in'. I would do that after seeing financial results rather than predictions from experts on a bulletin board...

@erratum: "Why would the business be headed for insolvency?"

Ince has been insolvent before - just a few years ago ... They were £34m in debt and the partners refused to bail it out. They didn't want to contribute anything and creditors got back ~20p in the pound. Banks tend to remember things like that:

https://www.legalfutures.co.uk/latest-news/the-gory-tale-of-ince-34m-in-debt-as-partners-refused-bail-out

What has changed? The 'new Ince' has maxed out its RCF and has limited cash available, while it seems that they're still a low-margin business that's generating lots of bad press. It's crazy that they paid a dividend. I was a shareholder at the time and I wondered if the dividend was prudent or even legal. With Arden itself never being very profitable and their main business now torpedoed due to losing NOMAD status, it's going to be interesting to watch closely. It would be interesting to know what clients they've kept.

I'm hoping that the business shows some signs of growth and recovery so I can recoup some of my (significant) losses on this firm.

"What gives you that impression?"

The big buyer disappeared while a pesky seller has come in on low volume; smart move to sell into the rise. The pattern of recent sells looks like it's a larger order being split by the platform, e.g. Interactive Brokers/sell at VWAP, with max 10% of volume.

Was a good trade; out on trailing stop.

I'll re-enter in small size again if it's smashed down, but mostly waiting for news.

Looks like another institution has started to exit.

Don't get excited yet. 10d volume is well down compared to past 3m volume. The buys look pathetic; nothing sizable. The rise is no-doubt partly due to the share buyback. They'll need to actually find something rather than talk about it before there'll be a recovery.

'Another biggie' - you mean another bid drop in the share price?
WTF is going on here?

Great News? - I don't see anything new in the RNS... surprised at the rise given that the RNS was basically waffle. I'll consider entering on an actual gas find.

It's still a pure punt, as there's no news...

But it's a punt with exceptionally good reward/risk if you view trading in those terms.

The pattern of buys looks like an institution.
I've also topped up; my average is now 6.01p.

It's been an incredible couple of weeks. It's going to be interesting to see if this is a fund building a large position or whether it's just PI speculation.

Not seeing Bo buying any more shares when he's deep underwater tells me everything that I need to know.

It's very disappointing that there's been no word about Dundas funding. Back in Jan, I thought we'd get it in Q1 and now we're approaching the end of Q2... WTF is going on?