Member Info for CaneToad

It's impossible to say for certain, but during covid, it dropped below 100p. It all depends on what happens to the copper price.

WTI is at a 9-month low; natural gas is in freefall; the pound has collapsed; we are in a bear market. There could be additional reasons, but those are sufficient for a drop.

"... after the PM just reiterated no 'Wind Fall Tax" and gas prices at unheard of record levels..."

There's already a windfall tax; it's a 25% tax on top of the existing 40% for NS producers. Unless I'm mistaken, she's not actually proposing to remove this windfall tax. It's just that she's not adding another one - yet.

There is also an element of sector weakness starting to appear. WTI forecasts have been dramatically scaled back in the past week by commentators who were previously very bullish. I usually ignore individual forecasts, but seeing Goldman, UBS and Morgan Stanley all slash forecasts is significant.

Many Canadian energy stocks have pulled back or are now moving sideways and are beginning to look bearish, along with WTI itself. This includes many of Eric Nuttall's picks. While I have the greatest respect for Eric, he can't support the oil market, no matter how much he tweets.

PTAL is not a good comparison for I3E because of its asset location. All producers in Latin America/developing economies are 'cheap'; for example Petrobras is on a forward pe of just 1.6, despite its solid balance sheet and monster dividend. Many of these 'cheap' producers have been cheap for years...

There is no doubt that some participants are wary of what might happen to the I3E share price if Serenity is a duster and/or if WTI falls back to $70. I expect a significant drop if that happens, though I think the long-term success is assured by the Canadian assets and I'll be adding on any significant decline.

"Thank you for confirming, as i suspected that you are in fact a non-holder. Enough said."

Why is that relevant? Since when are these boards only for people holding shares? I follow more than 50 oil/gas stocks, but am usually invested in no more than 10. UOG has been dropping in price since March 2021. Production has dropped. If production improves/stabilises, I will consider investing again. Until then, I will continue researching/watching, but not buying UOG.

As for your claim that you have made 'lots of money from this stock' - I find that highly unlikely, unless you bought on March 2020.

@FormerFD: Some of us here choose to invest after good news, in order to avoid holding a falling knife. I have held UOG shares on several occasions and would happily invest again after good well results and stable production. I don't see any yet, nor does the market. Unlike you, I have no interest in trying to constantly convince other people to buy or sell these shares.

@FormerFD: These boards are only useful when there are both good/bad views from a range of individuals. It is YOU that genuine investors need to be extremely wary of. Your obsession with this one stock makes it fairly obvious there is something highly suspect about your intent.

@Tony. If you are offering. I'm interested in hearing about areas that you consider to be 'less than A+ in the interims'.

1) Regarding the DELTASTREAM purchase, is that 1.425b CAD (£937m) for 23,000 boepd?
2) How much of our Canadian production is in the Clearwater?
3) What are the relative breakevens for Central Alberta, Wapiti and Simonette vs Clearwater

@boltok - you're starting to become tiresome. You have anything worthwhile to contribute?

Presumably you're short I3E - I'm guessing that you're a newbie trader? I'd caution you against doing so, unless you can afford to lose your trowsers and shirt.

@FormerFD - Get over yourself! You have no more status here than anybody else.

It's pretty damn clear YOU are an employed ramper. I follow this share closely, along with literally 50 resource companies, making decisions based on FACTS, entering when I see an opportunity; exiting when **** happens. But you're just a 'forever happy fella' that mindlessly says good things about the company, no matter what happens; insulting anybody that says anything that's even slightly off your target as if you have some sought of authority or value to add; NOT.

@Crabbo: where do you get access to the Berenberg research? Is it from Bloomberg?

If they give away all that cash as special divis or buybacks, then yes, I think we will drop heavily as gas prices fall back to normal levels over the next year or two. They desperately need to use that cash pile to significantly grow production. I expect that's what they're planning.

@Wildstag: "Windfall rumours are pushing this down for the next week."?

What rumours? It looks to me like it's just a reaction to the NBP/Brent drop, together with being overbought on RSI. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's all it looks like to me.

"how many boe/d if it would fail?"

Exactly zero people know the answer to that question. Most exploration wells fail - the statistic is somewhere around the 66% mark for AIM explorers. I don't know the statistic for appraisal wells because it's not a binary answer. The range of scenarios vary from it being marginally viable through to spectacular, so take your pick and place your bet! Personally, I would never have invested in I3E purely on Serenity as I'm much more interested in the low risk Canadian drilling.

Love Hemp (a company on the Aquis Exchange) was fined today after an investigation found that they failed to report important information to the market. There is no doubt that IOG should have reported this issue as soon as it was known. If the direcors had done their duty, many people here would not have invested at this time and subsequently lost a substantial amount of money. Unfortunately AIM is a terrible market, without any oversight.

"Somewhat dubious timing in my view."? That is very common on AIM unfortunately.

The FCA is completely useless and won't do anything about it though. Earlier this year, the Morses Club CEO sold his entire holding on a Friday afternoon, left the company and 'quickly moved' to Malta, before a catastrophic profit warning on a Monday morning, where the share price halved. It was one of the most blatant Insider Trading cases in years, heavily reported in the media, but nothing whatsoever was done!

So there is absolutely no chance that the FCA will do anything about IOG. You need to accept that the UK is one of the weakest regulated markets in the world.

I was tempted to buy here,but it's looking like the US/UK markets have changed direction. Holding off now.

That's also happening for other stocks, e.g. Thungela. You will commonly see this on the HL site soon, especially in the hour after the market closes.