Member Info for CaneToad

17 Nov 2022: Make an announcement that you're increasing the dividend to 8.10%, causig a share price rise
22 Nov 2022: Announce the winding down of the company

I wonder if management sold their own shares?

Regarding your comment (4): 'Current dividend as a percentage of Decembers FCF is about 52% i.e they are currently paying substantially above the 30% of FCF as i3e define FCF with their current Capex Spend.'

What would be the percentage of FCF after a 10% drop in oil/gas and everything else unchanged?

Looks like a spin-off/sale or acquisition to me. Maybe the various windfall taxes has changed the economics. We will see.

Hmm. A debt restructuring. WTF is going on?

@plumbs: "Just wondering why this is not trading at a higher share price?"

Have you looked at energy company share prices lately? Lots of UK/US/Canadian energy stocks are being smashed. The argument about how 'cheap' I3E is not holding water.

FYI: I'm holding here. Not trying to be negative, but trying to be realisitc. You'd be suffering even more if you were holding Vermilion, Pipestone, Harbour, Serica,... Being 'cheap' is rarely ever a reason for a share price to increase.

'Oil dropping like a stone'

It's due to the US making MBS immune from prosecution over Khashoggi last week. Saudia Arabia/OPEC are now returning to the favour to the US... Politics!

Oil could be in a for a rough ride. But who knows! In the short-term, this share and many other energy shares are heavily influenced by the oil price, despite what the actual production breakdown is. There's also the possibility of Canada introducing a windfall tax, following the growing chorus of these lately.

Has anybody done any calcs to see what the dividend cover would be for WTI at $75, $70, or $60?

I vaguely remember the company had done some hedging to protect the dividend? I'm not suggesting there will be any cut, but clearly there will be a point at which the dividend could become unsustainable if WTI drops heavily in a recession.

Changing HBR from a UK to foreign company would have no impact whatsoever on the tax situation for profits earned in the North Sea. The tax is nothing to do with being a UK company. It's a tax on any company that makes a profit from its NS operations. BP and Shell have limited operations in the NS, hence they won't be paying any tax. From memory, the figure for Shell is zero...

Investors are fleeing. That's what's going on. There is just no way that US investors will buy this now; they'd rather invest in a safe jurisdiction such as Peru, Nigeria, Indonesia, Iraq, etc. where companies don't pay 75% tax.

BP/Shell can be heard laughing their heads off at HBR taking the fall for them, while they make all the money! Has anybody mentioned to our CEO that perhaps it's time to do the same? Start diversifying away from the UK - NOW or have investors flee.

Absolutely. Nothing whatsoever to stop the WFT increasing to 90%. when Labour gets in.

75% tax rate - the company has now basically been nationalised.

This looks like an attractive place to park some funds and receive a solid dividend and the possibility of capital appreciation. It's not 'blemish-free', but how many shares offer a 8% yield and the possibility of good capital appreciation.

I am concerned the potential for problems due to the interest rate rises, so will keep my exposure modest. I'd like to understand more about the interest rate sensitivity of the loans that they hold. i.e. how much the yield would drop with each 1% rise in rates?

@Rookie1: "Could they be withholding on the buy backs to put that £100m towards an acquisition overseas? Can’t think why else they wouldn’t be buying now, unless they expect it to go lower."

I agree, that is the smart thing to do. I would prefer no more money being spent on buybacks. Put the money towards an asset, OUTSIDE THE UK FFS.

@huddersfield: "What's 3mths , this has been down for years lol"

My thoughts exactly. That's why my figure below for Williamson contribution was so low, i.e. almost irrelevant...

Amongst gem miners (all are in the category to be avoided by widows and orphans), I don't see this one as particularly risky. And I don't see any of them doing particularly well atm, but there (maybe) lies the opportunity?. Which ones do you see doing spectacularly well atm?

ok; got it. My figures were from the previous year, early in the Williamson restart. Not a 'total disaster' though if it's offline for 3m, equating to 13%/4 ~ 3% lost group revenue. No-doubt, the market will punish it more than that though and perhaps present a buying opportunity at some stage.

@Gusto: It's a great little company, hence why we're both here. The fact of the matter is that there is no guarantee whatsoever that this share will 'soon appreciate'.

If you're invested in other Canadian operators, you'll know that the past week has been brutal. Even Eric Nuttall doesn't know for sure if the share price will go up and if you were around then, you'd know that, because he had to hold all the way down in the oil price collapse in 2020, when nobody was saying he was a genius. I think it's unlikely we'll see that again, but some people think that in a recession, oil demand will reduce dramatically and oil itself will drop, while and energy equities will be smashed. Who knows, they could be right! You don't know. I don't know. That's investing.

From my notes, Cullinan alone accounts for 60% of revenue, while Finsch accounts for 30%, Koffiefontein accounts for 7% or so, so the issues at Williamson are not a total disaster, unless my info is out of date?

Another possibility is further news on the breach of the tailings dam?