Member Info for CaneToad

I'm guessing that the drop is something to do with the new executive awards? Perhaps not everybody thinks the awards shoudl be 300% of base salary?

By 'official' - you mean it's an RNS somewhere or some comment in yesterday's update? Unfortunately I missed it. Is there a link?

@Gusto1: "Top up the dips and carry on collecting the 6. 95% dividend! The sp will appreciate soon."

Just to counter that, it is often the case that seemingly high dividends often mean that the dividend will soon be cut - i.e. that it will not happen.

Secondly: Nobody knows whether or not the share price will 'appreciate soon'.

FYI: I have a large holding here. I'm not trying to be negative. I have many other investments, but not everybody here can afford to lose money if your advice turns out to be wrong, so you're best not giving it! The share price is down because oil/gas itself are down, which is logical.

Not trying to be negative, but it's not a great look for the general manager to sell all of his shares. It's inconsistent ewith any growth story.

So the big seller is Enrique Delgado, general manager of Proyecto Riotinto. He now supposedly has no shares in the company. Anybody have a view?

Just filter the guy. I came across him on other boards and filtered him a long time ago. He has no credibility at all and you won't missing anything.

Merge with Kosmos?

I think that would be a very bad idea. No matter how good the reserves or money generation, production in developing countries is never priced highly by the market. That explains why Kosmos, Seplat, Gulf Keystone, Petrobras,... are all on very low valuations, even though some of them pay monster dividends and have pristine balance sheets. Any merger of HBR with an operator in a developing country would most likely see a big *reduction* in share price rather than an increase. A large swathe of shareholders would abandon the company.

I think our best hope is to continue with the current strategy, pay down the debt, increase the dividend and the share price will take take care of itself.

Revenue means very little. e.g. Boohoo had huge/stable revenue over the past year, but pitiful profit and abysmal share price performance as a result. The same is true of all construction businesses. Profit means nothing at all. It's an irrelevance if the operating margin is low/negative.

JL76: I hope you're right! While they have some insolvency work, my expectation is that a recession will generally be bad for INCE. That's what all the recent RNS seem to be saying. The problem with listed law firms is that most of the profits end up in partner's pockets, not in the pockets of investors... From what I see, the closest model to INCE is Knights Group, which seems to be experiencing the same problems: low/dropping operating margin and terrible share price performance.

As a HBR shareholder, I will defintely support moving investment away from the UK. No question about it. New investments should not be made in the UK, when tax is this ridiculously high and the government is unstable. The key thing is stability. Norway also has high taxes, but it has a very stable tax regime, while the UK is highly unstable - more akin to an emerging market / third world country.

@JL76: Revenue has indeed grown nicely, but that's not the same as profit.. The new management at least realise the problem. It's a stretch to say that they're one of the 'best placed recession stock'. Which recent RNS are you referring to? Accordign to the firm, there's been no such 'uplift' in revenue or profit.

I noticed something weird in the pricing - but now obvious, due to the devaluation of EGP.

The bottom line is: there is nothing whatsoever wrong with saying something negative here - as long as it is factual. I am always extremely careful about people who complain about factually correct, but negative comments as they are usually the same people who are quietly selling their holding while they ramp a stock.

@Stas, as I have mentioned many times, the long-term trend is positive and I believe in the company. I just think that it's misleading for anybody to tell people that a share price is *definitely* going to continue up. That's never true of any equity investment, not even in a bull market. There could be a disappointing RNS in 5 minutes time that could tank the share price. WTI could also continue dropping - and in that scenario, it is highly likely that I3E will follow it down.

If you look at HBR, SQZ, KIST and I3E, you will see weakness over the past months. It's obvious, because these are all down heavily. It's misleading to try and tell people that the share price will somehow, miraculously start trending upwards without a catalyst.

Anyway, I've lost interest in arguing these things on a public forum.

@TSSZ: "The SP will now definitely only continue up, it was very difficult to buy any"

I have a large position here and I am very optimistic *in the long term*, but I think it is silly to tell people that the share price will *definitely* continue up. The reality is that most energy stocks have been hit hard by the drop in oil and gas prices and the general trend for I3E is currently downwards. If I was a gambler, I would guess that the I3E share price will continue downwards until we see a reversal in oil/gas.

I see no difficulty in buying shares. You can immediately execute a £100k purchase with no problems at all.

Re: John Festival.

You're right.

I was quoting the figure recorded in the official Refinitiv data (shown in Stockopedia and some other systems), which is *incorrect*. After checking the RNS, I see that you're right. I've told Stocko, who will try and get the figure corrected at source.

@isdeer: "it’s NOT GOOD ENOUGH to say I3 is undervalued, the investors need action by the directors to stop the rot"

I don't see any rot. Directors *have* recently bought in the market. John Festival bought 100,000 @ 24.20p (£24,200), while Majid bought another 206,607 @ 24.20p (£49,998). The current decline is mirrored by most energy stocks: HBR, SQZ, KIST,... i.e. it's nothing to do with I3E. I doubt that any amount of additional director buying will change the direction of travel.

Why's it declining? Maybe it's something to do with the dramatic decline in the natural gas price or the bearish trend in oil? If you're a short-term trader, you can exit. If you're a long-term investor, you can turn off the screen and come back another day or buy some more at a lower price.

If I read today's RNS correctly, both Adrian Banks and Toby Hewitt (management) are selling all of their new shares upon exercising their gifted options. Neither will own any shares in the company aftre the transaction. David Lovett will sell most of the gifted shares and holds a tiny percentage holding. Not an amazing display of confifdence in their company?

I've been watching this one for a while, having been invested in Petra and Gem Diamonds.

Can anybody shed light on the situation on the ground in Zambia and Mozambique? Are they facing any problems that PDL did a year or so back. The balance sheet looks strong and I'm thinking that the share buyback will provide at least some support for the shares for some months.

@isdeer: "... the market imo seems to be pricing Serenity negatively, EOG has dropped massively over the last week and I3e seems to be following the trend ..., it looks like its already been priced in to fail, or has it?"

No, look at any other oil/gas stock from Canada, US or UK. Almost everything is dropping fast; many of Eric Nuttall's favs dropped 8-10% on Friday; more heavy drops today. Most are dropping faster than I3E.