Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
Fact: oil/gas companies - as a sector - peaked in mid June. With the exception of the large caps: shell, BP etc, almost all oil/gas companies have been dropping since then. I3E is a great, growing company, but it's unreasonable to think it's going to rise in this type of environment. The reason is very simply that oil itself has been downtrending over that time. I cannot think of any natural gas producers that have done well over that time, but that is partly to do with windfall taxes.
How has HBR's share price performed recently? I don't see much strength, even though it's doing a large buyback. the same goes for lots of other energy companies. How has SQZ been doing? How about some of the US natural gas plays?
Or time will come, but it's unlikely to be next week or next month.
@Stas: "Secondly, have a look at the gas market, looking extremely buoyant and i3 are approx. 50% gas"
Do you hold shares in any of the Canadian natural gas producers, e.g. Birchcliff, Vermilion? BIR is nearly debt-free, highly profitable, recently declared a dividend, yielding 8%, has approval for a large buyback, but still the share price is stagnating. VET is doing even worse, but that's partly because of windfall taxes in Europe. Some Canadian producers have been absolutely smashed, e.g. Pipestone is down 50% from the recent peak. Yes, I have holdings in all of those companies + I3E.
In summary: it's not currently a bull market for energy companies. I don't mind if they raise the dividend, because I'll welcome the extra income, but I doubt it will change the share price. OPEC is not in control of the global economy or they would have avoided WTI going negative in 2020. Obviously, I hope they can support it, but I suspect nobody can hold up such a large market if the global economy tanks.
@Stas, No sensible company will raise the dividend in a falling commodity environment. Let's forget about that nonsensical idea. I'd rather they conserve cash in case there's an M&A opportunity if/when oil crashes again - as they did last time.
Nobody knows what the oil price will do, but given that it's been downtrending for almost 6m and the entire world is entering a recession, I'm not going to load up. Yes, China is re-opening, but covid cases are skyrocketing and it's looking like they're already in the worst recession since the early 90s. Only time will tell.
I am long I3E, but I welcome people that are short and am happy to hear their arguments.
@G_G_G: "HotChip, some upward movement in the monthly dividend payment will give us all a greater income at the very least. "
I think it's foolhardy to increase the dividend in a falling oil price environment. Oil has fallen from $120 -> $70 since June and there's no reason it couldn't hit $60 or even $50 in a recession. It all hinges on what happens in China. Raising the divi and then having to cut it again would be disastrous.
UOG - as in 'United Oil & Gas finding a billion barrels in Jamaica'? it's equally likely that Elvis will be found alive and well, singing Reggae in Kingston. UOG has to be one of the biggest 'Jam Tomorrow' companies on the entire planet. In the real world, their producion has been ticking down for years, with the current level barely above a thousand boepd.
The Canadian natural gas producer Birchcliff Energy has announced an 8% divi + share buybacks and it's done nothing for the share price. Hint: we're in a bear market and most small/mid-cap energy companies have been smashed like I3E since about mid June. The poor I3E share price performance is not due to some 'mystery PI'; it's unlikely to fly up once he's finished...
With all respect to Eric Nuttall - he cannot sell, even if he wanted to. His holdings are far too big for that. That's why he had to ride the market down 90% on some of his holdings in the 2020 crash. There's no way that Eric is neutral on the subject. Anybody that thinks he is needs to wakeup. The world is heading into a recession and there are as many arguments for a low oil price as for a high price; you need to be careful that you're not listening to only one side of the story.
I think there is some hope once China is out of the covid situation, but that is months away yet. It's exceedingly unlikely for any oil company share to consistently rise until that point. Cheap or not.
I think PTAL is in a totally different league to a Canadian producer. Just look at PBR, which trades at PER < 2, even though it pays a gargantuan dividend. It's been that way for a very long time. Some would say that the risk in PTAL is greater than PBR.
I'm not convinced that increasing the dividend will do anything - at least not for Canadian investors. For a Canadian story, look at Pipestone, which has been smashed after pivoting away from growth. US/Canadian investors seem to have no interest at all in dividends.
Lack of liquidity. As bonkers as it may seem, it could drop a lot further. I gave up reading all the bull market stories about how the lack of supply will support the oil price, yadda yadda. It is what it is. It's dropping, for whatever reason, maybe fears of a recession, maybe not, who knows and is that even relevant?
At a guess, the insanity might mean a price of $60 within a few months or a few weeks! I think that's far more likely than a rebound to $100 any time soon, given that the price has now been more-or-less falling for 6m.
FYI. I'm long I3E and will stay that way, but I am not deploying all available gunpowder now, because a big drop in oil is likely to mean a corresponding big drop in I3E and I'd like to buy more if that eventuality arises. Without a doubt, some will respond with anger and peddle an alternative story that the I3E share price will 'sky rocket tomorrow if only they increased the dividend by 10% or some other fantastic story.
@Lucy: I'm happy to listen to any proof that you have regarding CSH being a fraud. I'm open-minded to the idea that I'm wrong. Do you have any proof? How did they rig the independent IFRS property valuation to increase if the properties are genuinely worth only 1/3 of what they paid? I don't see any evidence at all. ShadowFall has thrown mud at lots of companies and most hasn't stuck.
I agree, there are some very odd looking things going on with HOME. But that's a different company.
@LucyDS: Why I think you're wrong here:
1) There's been a new 'Independent IFRS property valuation increased by 5.6% to £999.5 million'
2) Banks have lent against the property value
3) Fitch Ratings of "A" secured and "A-" unsecured
So do I believe some random person on a chat board, who's probably got a short spreadbet on Civitas, or the above?
Good luck!
So what exactly is a 'Royalty Partner'?
Is it like a company issuing multiple bonds?, e.g. Aviva has >50 bond issues. If so, then it is super-concentrated as I thought, because e.g. if Avia were to get into trouble, all of the bonds would be hit. FYI. I not saying for 1-second that Avia would ever have that problem.